PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Neurosmith said:

All governments of the world ultimately has the goal to survive, yes?

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In dire times. In brilliant times, it is to dominate.

Neurosmith said:

So they can either surrender to the mainland and risk being lynched by their own population or they can put up a fight and hope that an outside ally deigns to help them.

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No. They can surrender, have the population understand that their surrender saved everyone's lives, and then they can go live in peace somewhere in China. Or they can fight and die. That is the calculus for whether or not to surrender.

Or even better, they can start saying they'll fight, get all the radicals killed overnight, then surrender saying they gave it a shot and it's obviously fatally stupid to continue.

Neurosmith said:

Overall it would be foolish on China's part to bank on Taiwan's prospects of surrending.

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We don't bank on it; we are ready for a WWIII level fight over Taiwan. But it would be wise for them to understand that their lives depend on them doing it. And it makes sense as well.

Neurosmith said:

There has not been once historical precedent in which a (de facto) country surrendered to a greater power without any resistance, regardless of how lopsided the forces are.

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Actually there are an almost endless number of examples in history where small territories submitted themselves to empires without engaging a suicidal fight. Every empire that sprung up in the Eurasian continent saw this trend.

I disagree that is it impossible to take Taiwan without fighting a war; there may be minimal fighting to show them that the PLA is not just for show, but it's very very possible that it won't take more than that. Or maybe it won't take any violence at all directly on Taiwan, especially if something where to happen where China deals the US a limited military defeat in Asia (Korean War II, defeat and ousting of American forces in SCS, defeat of USA+Japan over Diaoyu Islands, etc...) thus demonstrating that China is the supreme force in Asia.

I agree with you that we are in no rush. The task gets cheaper, easier, and less risky for us by the day so it makes sense to wait