PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Neurosmith · 2025-02-02T01:33:17-0500

China and Taiwan both seem to be relatively satisifed with the current status quo. China has not made any overt preparations, other than general military modernization and buildup, that would signal an impeding operation and Lai has openly reneged on his push for Taiwanese de jure independence. China is aware that Taiwan's ultimate goal is to deter an armed reunification while Taiwan is cognizant of China's goal of deterring Taiwanese independence. Both realize the costs of a political conflict that triggers an armed conflict and seem to be treading this fine line, albeit without any overt cross-strait talks.

China seems to be playing a long-term game; it maintains a peace across the Taiwan Strait - and by extension allowing and tolerating some foreign interference in Taiwan's affairs - while continuing to widen the military gap between the two countries over the years. Both sides are recognizing each other's red lines and are treading carefully so as not to cross them.

SanWenYu · 2025-02-02T02:15:12-0500

Neurosmith said:
widen the military gap between the two ~~countries~~ sides over the years

Fixed it for you unless you meant China and the US but we are not there yet.

I think the unification will be bloodless, i.e. an armed unification without gunfire. As PRC keeps building up its military power and economic strength, the possibility of foreign interference is diminishing. Taiwan will be forced to accept the conditions set by the mainland.

Neurosmith · 2025-02-02T02:19:36-0500

SanWenYu said:
Fixed it for you unless you meant China and the US but we are not there yet.

I think the unification will be bloodless, i.e. an armed unification without gunfire. As PRC keeps building up its military power and economic strength, the possibility of foreign interference is diminishing. Taiwan will be forced to accept the conditions set by the mainland.

Are you expecting the Taiwanese government to hand over control or disband its military without any resistance? I don't think a surrender would ever be on the table if Taiwan is given an ultimatum.

Iron Man · 2025-02-02T02:27:10-0500

Neurosmith said:
China and Taiwan both seem to be relatively satisifed with the current status quo. China has not made any overt preparations, other than general military modernization and buildup, that would signal an impeding operation and Lai has openly reneged on his push for Taiwanese de jure independence.

China seems to be playing a long-term game

China is absolutely not satisfied with the status quo across the Strait. As for overt preparations, the appearance of those new landing barges that have no other purpose than for a massed amphibious landing says pretty clearly that China is in fact making "overt" preparations for war across the Strait, or for at least threatening war should Taiwan dither in agreeing to capitulate to China's terms for a peaceful surrender.

As an aside, as much as Western media is fixated on "2027", I think that year or even 2028 is as good as any from an American political point of view. This would be during the waning years of Trump's second and last term which means should he decide against American military intervention he will not have to justify his decision during a reelection campaign to either his voters or to either party in Congress, because let's face it, any first term US president will not get a second term if he does NOT militarily defend Taiwan, right or wrong, regardless of party affiliation or actual military balance of power; that president would get skewered by the other party and maybe even his own party. Trump is also susceptible to flattery and to bribery. China is no doubt already seeking the means to ingratiate itself to him, his family members, and to Musk (via Tesla), offering generous investment perks in China for Trump Inc. and other businesses owned by Ivanka and Jared. Trump is also an avowed anti-interventionalist, and despite his Chinahawk cabinet will likely decide on war or no war based on what benefits himself and his perceived image as deal-broker and peace-maker the most. Trump has also made multiple negative statements about Taiwan and how it's ripping off American business and whatnot. This man and his presidency is literally the best possible scenario for a Chinese reunification attempt to come along in the last several decades and probably for the next several decades to come. Even if the Chinese military is not as ready as it would ideally like to be by 2027 or 2028, the geopolitical headwinds favor a Chinese attempt at settling the question of Taiwan once and for all at around that time.

SanWenYu · 2025-02-02T02:28:01-0500

Neurosmith said:
Are you expecting the Taiwanese government to hand over control or disband its military without any resistance? I don't think a surrender would ever be on the table if Taiwan is given an ultimatum.

All the secessionists are counting on is foreign interferences. When China significantly overpasses the US in military strength in the region, there will be no foreign country daring to intervene. There will be many ways for the mainland to force Taiwan into submission.

coolgod · 2025-02-02T02:58:28-0500

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1885918317765968227

China is literally preparing for AR and there are still members here who think that China is satisfied with the status quo.

Neurosmith · 2025-02-02T03:03:49-0500

Iron Man said:
China is absolutely not satisfied with the status quo across the Strait. As for overt preparations, the appearance of those new landing barges that have no other purpose than for a massed amphibious landing says pretty clearly that China is in fact making "overt" preparations for war across the Strait, or for at least threatening war should Taiwan dither in agreeing to capitulate to China's terms for a peaceful surrender.

As an aside, as much as Western media is fixated on "2027", I think that year or even 2028 is as good as any from an American political point of view. This would be during the waning years of Trump's second and last term which means should he decide against American military intervention he will not have to justify his decision during a reelection campaign to either his voters or to either party in Congress, because let's face it, any first term US president will not get a second term if he does NOT militarily defend Taiwan, right or wrong, regardless of party affiliation or actual military balance of power; that president would get skewered by the other party and maybe even his own party. Trump is also susceptible to flattery and to bribery. China is no doubt already seeking the means to ingratiate itself to him, his family members, and to Musk (via Tesla), offering generous investment perks in China for Trump Inc. and other businesses owned by Ivanka and Jared. Trump is also an avowed anti-interventionalist, and despite his Chinahawk cabinet will likely decide on war or no war based on what benefits himself and his perceived image as deal-broker and peace-maker the most. Trump has also made multiple negative statements about Taiwan and how it's ripping off American business and whatnot. This man and his presidency is literally the best possible scenario for a Chinese reunification attempt to come along in the last several decades and probably for the next several decades to come. Even if the Chinese military is not as ready as it would ideally like to be by 2027 or 2028, the geopolitical headwinds favor a Chinese attempt at settling the question of Taiwan once and for all at around that time.

This is assuming that the Chinese side sees a diminishing risk of peaceful reunification post-2027/2028 (or whatever year you wish to use in your example), hence justifying an expedited operation to reunify with Taiwan. I don't think that's the case here, especially when military and economic winds are in China's favor in the long term.

If anything, it would be in the interest of Taiwan and the US to provoke China into launching an early military expedition and, in consequence, tying up her economic and military resources while the US capitalizes on the opportunity to reinforce herself in the Pacific.

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and seems to be taking steps to avoid this geopolitical trap.

While Trump might push an isolationalist policy for the United States, I seriously doubt that China sees this as worth the risk of such a huge military operation at a time when its forces are not sufficient for a guaranteed & quick victory in a Taiwan scenario. While I agree that China's ultimate endgame is to reunify with Taiwan, its modus operandi has been and will likely continue to be maintaining the current situation and develop its military until such an operation is almost guaranteed success.

Neurosmith · 2025-02-02T03:08:52-0500

SanWenYu said:
All the secessionists are counting on is foreign interferences. When China significantly overpasses the US in military strength in the region, there will be no foreign country daring to intervene. There will be many ways for the mainland to force Taiwan into submission.

All governments of the world ultimately has the goal to survive, yes? So they can either surrender to the mainland and risk being lynched by their own population or they can put up a fight and hope that an outside ally deigns to help them.

Overall it would be foolish on China's part to bank on Taiwan's prospects of surrending. There has not been once historical precedent in which a (de facto) country surrendered to a greater power without any resistance, regardless of how lopsided the forces are.

bebops · 2025-02-02T03:15:35-0500

Neurosmith said:
This is assuming that the Chinese side sees a diminishing risk of peaceful reunification post-2027/2028 (or whatever year you wish to use in your example), hence justifying an expedited operation to reunify with Taiwan. I don't think that's the case here, especially when military and economic winds are in China's favor in the long term.

If anything, it would be in the interest of Taiwan and the US to provoke China into launching an early military expedition and, in consequence, tying up her economic and military resources while the US capitalizes on the opportunity to reinforce herself in the Pacific.
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and seems to be taking steps to avoid this geopolitical trap.

While Trump might push an isolationalist policy for the United States, I seriously doubt that China sees this as worth the risk of such a huge military operation at a time when its forces are not sufficient for a guaranteed & quick victory in a Taiwan scenario. While I agree that China's ultimate endgame is to reunify with Taiwan, its modus operandi has been and will likely continue to be maintaining the current situation and develop its military until such an operation is almost guaranteed success.

It seems like America has been preparing it before the 2027 date. I will not dismiss the replicator, hellscape drone nor cheap hypersonic program.

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Even with all that is happening, China has a triumph card. I read from an unconfirmed source that China has the ability to manufacture 1000 of ballistic and cruise missiles per day when asked to do it. Of course, right now they wouldn't produce it at max capacity. In event months before or during the war, they will use this advantage.

Neurosmith · 2025-02-02T03:21:26-0500

bebops said:
It seems like America has been preparing it before the 2027 date. I will not dismiss the replicator, hellscape drone nor cheap hypersonic program.

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Even with all that is happening, China has a triumph card. I read from an unconfirmed source that China has the ability to manufacture 1000 of ballistic and cruise missiles per day when asked to do it. Of course, right now they wouldn't produce it at max capacity. In event months before or during the war, they will use this advantage.

I've no doubt that China has been preparing for such a contingency, even to have some baseline capacity to attack Taiwan at any moment's notice. What I do doubt however is that the Chinese leadership has a specific date in mind before which a Taiwan reunification must be carried out.

PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Neurosmith

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SanWenYu

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Neurosmith

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Iron Man

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SanWenYu

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coolgod

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Neurosmith

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Neurosmith

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bebops

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Neurosmith

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