PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

At this point China has absolute advantage on Taiwan. I believe this thread has run its course. It is meaningless to discuss the detail of a one-sided conflict. PRC has absolute advantage in direct combat, as well as various ways of defeating the island without force, such as a blockade, diplomacy with US.

The only meaningful variable to retake of Taiwan is a direct conflict with US. In which case Taiwan is no longer than main subject, because conflict would be much wider. A new thread should be dedicated for hypothetical war with US caused by Taiwan issue.

I sometimes wonder if the CPC is delaying resolving the Taiwan issue until it is strong enough to completey exorcise anglo presence in east asia.

TK3600 said:

A new thread should be dedicated for hypothetical war with US caused by Taiwan issue.

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That's the point of the WESTPAC HIC thread

Chevalier said:

I sometimes wonder if the CPC is delaying resolving the Taiwan issue until it is strong enough to completey exorcise anglo presence in east asia.

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Of course that's exactly what it's doing. That is the only way to ensure a (mostly) bloodless victory. There needs to be no doubt on the island that 1. they are on their own, no one would fight China in Asia for them 2. even if the US wanted to help, they would be powerless, 3. resistance is a pointless death. The bonus number 4 is for them to see that their lives would actually improve under the PRC rather than their lunatic congress fist fight type of clown government. Every day, as the power balance tilts further towards China, we are closer to a bloodless reunion; we are well strong enough to do it by force but we won't do that unless we are forced to do it.

manqiangrexue said:

Of course that's exactly what it's doing. That is the only way to ensure a (mostly) bloodless victory. There needs to be no doubt on the island that 1. they are on their own, no one would fight China in Asia for them 2. even if the US wanted to help, they would be powerless, 3. resistance is a pointless death. The bonus number 4 is for them to see that their lives would actually improve under the PRC rather than their lunatic congress fist fight type of clown government. Every day, as the power balance tilts further towards China, we are closer to a bloodless reunion; we are well strong enough to do it by force but we won't do that unless we are forced to do it.

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Taiwanese pride and delusion will preclude a bloodless resolution of the Taiwan question.

Iron Man said:

Taiwanese pride and delusion will preclude a bloodless resolution of the Taiwan question.

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I think Taiwanese pride and delusions will change.

Just look at what is happening with respect to how America views China eg. The Chinese lead in 6th gen military aircraft, what happened with RedNote and the Tiktok refugees, along with Deepseek.

Iron Man said:

Taiwanese pride and delusion will preclude a bloodless resolution of the Taiwan question.

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Largely bloodless. It's better to have some blood. Ideally, the most radical will rush up and get killed and the rest will drop their weapons. Those guys, if left alive, will only become terrorists and/or continue to embarrass all self-respecting Asians in general by voluntarily licking American boots.

Iron Man said:

Taiwanese pride and delusion will preclude a bloodless resolution of the Taiwan question.

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Then they'll bleed. The most important thing is that China is strong enough to have assured and total dominance over the US.

ZeEa5KPul said:

Then they'll bleed. The most important thing is that China is strong enough to have assured and total dominance over the US.

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We may (or may not) see in a couple years whether your optimism is realistic....

ZeEa5KPul said:

Then they'll bleed. The most important thing is that China is strong enough to have assured and total dominance over the US.

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I'm not entirely sure. At least on r/LessCredibleDefense and according to articles like and the general sentiment in Taiwan is not one of boldheadedness but rather an apathy and pessimism. That the options are (in order of preference):

a) China never attempts AR,
b) That the ROCA completely overpowers the PLA,
c) that the PLA militarily but bloodlessly takes over Taiwan,
d) that American sons will die for Taiwan, and
e) that their neighbor's son will die for Taiwan

Taiwan is not Ukraine; there isn't the same kind of genuine patriotism in fear there. It's either that Xi will never attempt, or that Xi will never succeed. The point is acknowledged when the entire point of the Zero Day TV show to come out in a few months is to get Taiwanese people more afraid of China. The people most reluctant to the idea of annexation are:

- Filipinos
- American liberals
- Australians
- Jensen Huang

China has to some extent won the psychological war, but that "China is strong enough to have assured and total dominance over the US" is yet to be fully realized. China has military dominance yes, but not one with margins wide enough to completely legitimize Taiwan as a province. Only when INDOPACOM is to China what India is the same, can AR be bloodless (for PLA soldiers).