PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
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I just have a quick go through on the current inventory of fighter jets in ROC Airforce. The numbers below may not be 100% accurate since they are from Wikipedia.

Total number of aircraft =>577
Total number of fighter jets =>431 before accounting for total retirement of F-5E and F-5F which were to be retired in 2024.
Total number of fighter jets less F-5E/F = 388

Of the 388 fighter jets, only 66 are modern F-16C/D block 70, the rest are:-
F-CK-1 => 129 aircraft of more than 25 years old
F-16A/B => 140 aircraft of more than 20-25 years old.
Mirage 2000-5 => 53 aircraft of more than 25 years old

Surface to Air missiles systems (under air force command) are:-
Patriot 2 and 3 => 9 systems with 386 missiles.
Sky Bow II => 6 systems with unknown number of missiles
Sky Bow III =. 12 systems with unknown number of missiles.
AIM-7 Sparrow/ RIM-7 => 500+ missiles under the Skyguard system.

Main air base is at Hualien at the East coast of the island where the latest F-16C/D are assumed to be based.

So, if AR starts, ROC fighter jets' life span will last not more than a few days if they flew. Or they may stay until end of war in the mountain caves in Hualien airbase.

If PLA will to launch more than 5,000 drones, they should be able to deplete or destroy practically all SAMs. Of course PLA has other weapons like ARM, long range rockets, short range ballastic missies etc to deal with the SAM sites.

PLAAF should be able to gain air control all over Taiwan within a day or 2.

For starters all F-16s have upgraded to F-16V standards as of 2023? Not that it matters much.
 

votran

New Member
Registered Member
By the way, have you ever discussed, about the propaganda war of the Chinese government or PLA for the liberation of Taiwan? Either before or after.
Although propaganda is never decisive in a war, it does play a big role, both internally and externally. And I don't think this is off-thread.
if china still keep this way of thinking then they already have more than 50% failure chance right from start , or even more

entire US strategy again china/russia is to force both nation follow the so called "humane war" right from start

exploit the fear of collateral damage allow US/allied and the proxy enjoy many advantage from playing all sort of dirty trick

because US and their gang have massive propagranda warfare , global english media control advantage over both china/russia

so even in case china/russia carefully pratice humane war , careful avoid collateral damage , US and their proxy still able to paint both nation as bloodthirsty demon

while allow the proxy roam free pratice all sort of warcrime , dirty trick : like in ukraine many time ukrainian force hidding weapon , missile launcher , sam inside dense population area , using children school as operation base , storage weapon and ammo , using civilian even red cross vehicles to deliver ammo,weapon , troops ...etc.

same trick will be play again in taiwan even more serious and co-op support from US , western world , japan , korea , australia , philipine , even india ...

anyway : this trick worked wonder every single time not only make enemy war effort bog down , causing massive amount of loss , turn the world again US's enemy , allow US proxy enjoy so many advantage ,buy time for US and their gang

also scare enemy grovernment from doing the "right thing" to counter it

even today putin russia still willing to play right in US hand and still practice costly humane war in ukraine
 

votran

New Member
Registered Member
try so hard to be the good guy while your enemy control almost entire global english media network can ruin all your effort in a blink of an eye
and having entire their strategy based on exploit your feeling "want to be good guy"

is just pure comedy gold

you can't win
 

GOODTREE

New Member
Registered Member
try so hard to be the good guy while your enemy control almost entire global english media network can ruin all your effort in a blink of an eye
and having entire their strategy based on exploit your feeling "want to be good guy"

is just pure comedy gold

you can't win
Thank you for your reply.
Yes, it's unnecessary to be in such a position of concern, and I've never believed in so-called “humane wars”, however most of the time civilians on both sides do, and personally I think it's a double-edged sword. If the U.S. joins the war, then the killing of its soldiers could create a huge psychological warfare advantage for U.S./Taiwanese civilians/officials, how to maintain and expand this advantage is the question.
Another question is the other side may also this strategy, the strategy or preparation that CPC may use to prevent this enemy strategy from succeeding.

Now, if you'll excuse me for a moment.
 

votran

New Member
Registered Member
Thank you for your reply.
Yes, it's unnecessary to be in such a position of concern, and I've never believed in so-called “humane wars”, however most of the time civilians on both sides do, and personally I think it's a double-edged sword. If the U.S. joins the war, then the killing of its soldiers could create a huge psychological warfare advantage for U.S./Taiwanese civilians/officials, how to maintain and expand this advantage is the question.
Another question is the other side may also this strategy, the strategy or preparation that CPC may use to prevent this enemy strategy from succeeding.

Now, if you'll excuse me for a moment.
china can't counter it even if they want to counter this US strategy , they can't

both current china grovernment and citizen and ofcouse china society way of thinking

and US/west + taiwan + japan know it

not even putin able to counter it with all his nuclear war saber rattting let alone china . so there is no hope

the only kind of person i think can counter this are ......kim jong un and his dad tbh
 

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
if china still keep this way of thinking then they already have more than 50% failure chance right from start , or even more

entire US strategy again china/russia is to force both nation follow the so called "humane war" right from start

exploit the fear of collateral damage allow US/allied and the proxy enjoy many advantage from playing all sort of dirty trick

because US and their gang have massive propagranda warfare , global english media control advantage over both china/russia

so even in case china/russia carefully pratice humane war , careful avoid collateral damage , US and their proxy still able to paint both nation as bloodthirsty demon

while allow the proxy roam free pratice all sort of warcrime , dirty trick : like in ukraine many time ukrainian force hidding weapon , missile launcher , sam inside dense population area , using children school as operation base , storage weapon and ammo , using civilian even red cross vehicles to deliver ammo,weapon , troops ...etc.
same trick will be play again in taiwan even more serious and co-op support from US , western world , japan , korea , australia , philipine , even india ...

anyway : this trick worked wonder every single time not only make enemy war effort bog down , causing massive amount of loss , turn the world again US's enemy , allow US proxy enjoy so many advantage ,buy time for US and their gang

also scare enemy grovernment from doing the "right thing" to counter it
Its not applicable to this war because if US doesn't full scale invade, KMT will get wrecked in weeks dirty fighting or not, the difference is just too great.

And if US attacks, everything goes out the window in terms of morals, because it's a fight to defend all China against foreign invader.
even today putin russia still willing to play right in US hand and still practice costly humane war in ukraine
Russia is practicing a cheap war, that's how you win big conflicts unless you have overwhelming power. US waged a costly war in Vietnam and lost territory for it. The Russian doctrine is mostly based on avoiding those pitfalls.
 

GOODTREE

New Member
Registered Member
If the U.S. joins the war, then the killing of its soldiers could create a huge psychological warfare advantage for U.S./Taiwanese civilians/officials, how to maintain and expand this advantage is the question.
Sorry for a mistake. It should be "If the U.S. joins the war, then the killing of its soldiers could create a huge psychological warfare advantage to U.S./Taiwanese civilians/officials, how to maintain and expand this advantage is the question"
china can't counter it even if they want to counter this US strategy , they can't

both current china grovernment and citizen and ofcouse china society way of thinking

and US/west + taiwan + japan know it

not even putin able to counter it with all his nuclear war saber rattting let alone china . so there is no hope

the only kind of person i think can counter this are ......kim jong un and his dad tbh
I think that's where the problem lies, and that's probably why propaganda warfare can never achieve a decisive situation; it's too easily reversed and counter-exploited. In the face of US-led propaganda, I'm always reminded of when the Syrian rebels marched into Aleppo, when many people assumed that the situation would be broken quickly (and in fact it was), based on the false and false information that was being circulated, but it wasn't at all quicker than they thought it would be. If even a small force like this can do it (and of course it must have help behind it), there's no reason why China can't do it, and any successful propaganda campaign is worth one less casualty on our side, IMO, and China has the power base to do it.
Also, for sacrifices, how would China address a propaganda war offensive with this? I've heard that Russia is showing pictures of fallen soldiers over and over again in various large public places, occasionally editing them together with people from the Patriotic War. And I don't know where the money came from to build the Main Cathedral of the Russian Armed Forces.
 

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
Sorry for a mistake. It should be "If the U.S. joins the war, then the killing of its soldiers could create a huge psychological warfare advantage to U.S./Taiwanese civilians/officials, how to maintain and expand this advantage is the question"

I think that's where the problem lies, and that's probably why propaganda warfare can never achieve a decisive situation; it's too easily reversed and counter-exploited. In the face of US-led propaganda, I'm always reminded of when the Syrian rebels marched into Aleppo, when many people assumed that the situation would be broken quickly (and in fact it was), based on the false and false information that was being circulated, but it wasn't at all quicker than they thought it would be. If even a small force like this can do it (and of course it must have help behind it), there's no reason why China can't do it, and any successful propaganda campaign is worth one less casualty on our side, IMO, and China has the power base to do it.
Also, for sacrifices, how would China address a propaganda war offensive with this? I've heard that Russia is showing pictures of fallen soldiers over and over again in various large public places, occasionally editing them together with people from the Patriotic War. And I don't know where the money came from to build the Main Cathedral of the Russian Armed Forces.
Like Syria is honestly how an unfreezing of the conflict would go unless US commits to a full scale invasion.

PLA don't need to bomb the living daylights out of everyone in Taiwan, just a few 1000 well equipped troops beelining to Taipei + saboteurs would be enough. No number of KMT formations has the ability to stand up to a full strength/full support PLA division.

The morale of KMT is poor, possibly as poor as Assad's guys. But at least Assad's guys had theoretically superior firepower and ability to fight if they just decide to hold their ground. I think if a formation of people with awful morale faces a well prepared attack from overwhelming force, they will simply collapse.

Remember China has its own crew ready within the KMT as well that are ready to surrender positions/act as moles. Just like we saw with Syria, where many of Assad's people deserted to the islamists.
 

GOODTREE

New Member
Registered Member
Like Syria is honestly how an unfreezing of the conflict would go unless US commits to a full scale invasion.

PLA don't need to bomb the living daylights out of everyone in Taiwan, just a few 1000 well equipped troops beelining to Taipei + saboteurs would be enough. No number of KMT formations has the ability to stand up to a full strength/full support PLA division.

The morale of KMT is poor, possibly as poor as Assad's guys. But at least Assad's guys had theoretically superior firepower and ability to fight if they just decide to hold their ground. I think if a formation of people with awful morale faces a well prepared attack from overwhelming force, they will simply collapse.

Remember China has its own crew ready within the KMT as well that are ready to surrender positions/act as moles. Just like we saw with Syria, where many of Assad's people deserted to the islamists.
Yes, naturally it would be an ideal situation if the beheadings were carried out quickly and the war ended in a couple of weeks, (seriously, it would be great if that happened). I'm just worrying about the worst case scenario and hoping I'm just being pessimistic.
However, under the most ideal conditions, the enemy's propaganda offensive is not to be underestimated, and when that time comes I hope it must be punched hard. Both against domestic hanjians and foreign hostiles.
 

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
Yes, naturally it would be an ideal situation if the beheadings were carried out quickly and the war ended in a couple of weeks, (seriously, it would be great if that happened). I'm just worrying about the worst case scenario and hoping I'm just being pessimistic.
However, under the most ideal conditions, the enemy's propaganda offensive is not to be underestimated, and when that time comes I hope it must be punched hard. Both against domestic hanjians and foreign hostiles.
If US doesn't do a full scale invasion, whatever level of propaganda they can make is pointless compared to the real life propaganda of PLA running around taking out people with impunity while ROCA is blind.

Also I doubt only propaganda can make the already established infiltrators/moles turn around. Those people are doing either out of nationalist reasons or because they're infiltrated by China.
 
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