PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

RoastGooseHKer

New Member
Registered Member
I'd prefer not to deal with Indians in the first place. Also do you know how much headache deporting Indians can be, Canadians already found out a while ago :p
Those headaches would not be a problem if WTC has the opportunity to concentrate its resources and repeat another 1962-type shock victory in Southern Tibet and areas surrounding Pangong Lake. And you would likely see the biggest air-to-air match since World War II with the PLA being the likely winner as results of superior system of systems and fighter planes. It would majour blow to Hindu nationalists' narratives and the BJP's legitimacy.

A risk for this war-scenario would be if the PLA targets India's defence and civilian industries leading to a Bhopal-type tragedy, giving New Delhi a justification to break its NFU doctrine (or if New Delhi targets key nuclear industries in Sichuan with conventional ballistic missiles, leading to a Chinese nuclear response).
 

Heliox

Junior Member
Registered Member
These look to be perfect enough to shut up the "only a few beaches the PLA can land on" copers
View attachment 143037

These barges are not meant to seize bridgeheads.
For that, you will still be relying on dedicated amphibious landing crafts (LCU,LST/LCAC analogues).
As such, the "few" beaches that the PLAN can land on, are still limited what can be handled by the lowest common demonitor - whichever element that might be.

The biggest difference between specialised amphibious landing assets capable of assault operations are the speed at which they can disgorge their load. By contrast, these barges will probably take hours to set up.

As per the article, they are meant to act as a interface for non-specialised landing ships to utilise beachheads to unload follow on waves - NOT the assault wave. The historical example given is that of the Mulberry harbours used in Normandy. These are for much later in the operational phase when the beachhead has not only been seized but expanded.

You don't even necessarily need the barges themselves to have it -- the nature of the distances involved means low draft escort ships with their own SAMs and CIWS could do the job.

I could even see them building relatively light displacement, low draft "escort barges" that are only a few hundred tons but are installed with SR SAMs or gun based CIWS to act as closer in last ditch defenses.


This is ignoring of course how such an operation would have substantial air and naval escort and overwatch in general, not to mention it would be preceded overall by a large scale bombardment of the immediate beach, and having secured air and sea control with requisite interdiction of identified adversary artillery and fires groups and C4I, to overall reduce the ability of an adversary to resist a landing with either maneuver forces or residual artillery forces.

The biggest danger for this area is the threat of artillery, given the range/accuracy of modern MLRS and lack of operational depth to push a bridgehead perimeter past such risks. CRAM assets will need to be close to the actual beach which means the best employment of CRAM defence will be landed assets.

Air defence umbrella will otoh be, as you mentioned, capably provided by the amphib fleet itself and land air.
 
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Wrought

Junior Member
Registered Member
Be cool if they just left them there after a successful retaking of Taiwan to commemorate the event and let peope use them as fishing docks...

Likely not sturdy enough to be permanent structures, seeing as they are built to be mobile. A storm destroyed one of the original Mulberrys, and the second needed significant reinforcement.
 

GOODTREE

Junior Member
Registered Member
Likely not sturdy enough to be permanent structures, seeing as they are built to be mobile. A storm destroyed one of the original Mulberrys, and the second needed significant reinforcement.
Or it would be nice to keep one of the pillars and inscribe this war of liberation on it to make it a monument.
 

GOODTREE

Junior Member
Registered Member
By the way, have you ever discussed, about the propaganda war of the Chinese government or PLA for the liberation of Taiwan? Either before or after.
Although propaganda is never decisive in a war, it does play a big role, both internally and externally. And I don't think this is off-thread.
 

lcloo

Captain
I just have a quick go through on the current inventory of fighter jets in ROC Airforce. The numbers below may not be 100% accurate since they are from Wikipedia.

Total number of aircraft =>577
Total number of fighter jets =>431 before accounting for total retirement of F-5E and F-5F which were to be retired in 2024.
Total number of fighter jets less F-5E/F = 388

Of the 388 fighter jets, only 66 are modern F-16C/D block 70, the rest are:-
F-CK-1 => 129 aircraft of more than 25 years old
F-16A/B => 140 aircraft of more than 20-25 years old.
Mirage 2000-5 => 53 aircraft of more than 25 years old

Surface to Air missiles systems (under air force command) are:-
Patriot 2 and 3 => 9 systems with 386 missiles.
Sky Bow II => 6 systems with unknown number of missiles
Sky Bow III =. 12 systems with unknown number of missiles.
AIM-7 Sparrow/ RIM-7 => 500+ missiles under the Skyguard system.

Main air base is at Hualien at the East coast of the island where the latest F-16C/D are assumed to be based.

So, if AR starts, ROC fighter jets' life span will last not more than a few days if they flew. Or they may stay until end of war in the mountain caves in Hualien airbase.

If PLA will to launch more than 5,000 drones, they should be able to deplete or destroy practically all SAMs. Of course PLA has other weapons like ARM, long range rockets, short range ballastic missies etc to deal with the SAM sites.

PLAAF should be able to gain air control all over Taiwan within a day or 2.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
I just have a quick go through on the current inventory of fighter jets in ROC Airforce. The numbers below may not be 100% accurate since they are from Wikipedia.

Total number of aircraft =>577
Total number of fighter jets =>431 before accounting for total retirement of F-5E and F-5F which were to be retired in 2024.
Total number of fighter jets less F-5E/F = 388

Of the 388 fighter jets, only 66 are modern F-16C/D block 70, the rest are:-
F-CK-1 => 129 aircraft of more than 25 years old
F-16A/B => 140 aircraft of more than 20-25 years old.
Mirage 2000-5 => 53 aircraft of more than 25 years old

Surface to Air missiles systems (under air force command) are:-
Patriot 2 and 3 => 9 systems with 386 missiles.
Sky Bow II => 6 systems with unknown number of missiles
Sky Bow III =. 12 systems with unknown number of missiles.
AIM-7 Sparrow/ RIM-7 => 500+ missiles under the Skyguard system.

Main air base is at Hualien at the East coast of the island where the latest F-16C/D are assumed to be based.

So, if AR starts, ROC fighter jets' life span will last not more than a few days if they flew. Or they may stay until end of war in the mountain caves in Hualien airbase.

If PLA will to launch more than 5,000 drones, they should be able to deplete or destroy practically all SAMs. Of course PLA has other weapons like ARM, long range rockets, short range ballastic missies etc to deal with the SAM sites.

PLAAF should be able to gain air control all over Taiwan within a day or 2.
According to TMB 2024:
Capturar.JPG
2.JPG
3.JPG
Does anyone have the updated PLAAF numbers?
 

Moonscape

Junior Member
Registered Member
By the way, have you ever discussed, about the propaganda war of the Chinese government or PLA for the liberation of Taiwan? Either before or after.
Although propaganda is never decisive in a war, it does play a big role, both internally and externally. And I don't think this is off-thread.


You mean like this?


Thanks to AI, we can imagine what urban warfare in Taipei looks like.

The PRC government can just let it's keyboard warriors do it for free. Besides, external influence has always been a weakness for the CPC so outsourcing that makes sense.
 

GOODTREE

Junior Member
Registered Member
You mean like this?



The PRC government can just let it's keyboard warriors do it for free. Besides, external influence has always been a weakness for the CPC so outsourcing that makes sense.
The use of AI to batch create disinformation may work marvelously in the future, perhaps with just a few real videos spiced up a bit.

What I'm trying to say, though, is that when the Chinese government/PLA conducts operations to recover the island, what kind of tactics will they use internally or externally; pacify the people for a smooth daily life; what kind of public opinion campaigns will they use against Taiwan; what kind of propaganda methods will they use against foreign countries and even international organizations to deal with this.
What will be done to deal with the possible spread of the PLA's sacrifices on the Internet.(I hope not)
The war may be prolonged.(I definitely hope not)
And so on.
 
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