PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

coolgod

Colonel
Registered Member
It is speculation that China might've resorted to non-peaceful methods of reunification should the Portuguese have declined the 2000 date. This is in clear contrast to the Taiwan situation where the Chinese side have explicitly mentioned the use of military force in its Anti-Secession Law.
Your ignorance doesn't make it speculation. How are your arguments any different than the people who say China just issue empty threats and China's last warning jokes.

The change you are referring to, which I will assume refers to decreasing support for the KMT and increasing support for the DPP, matters to China only if there is still a significant number of the population of policymakers who are amenable to the idea of reunification under CCP rule. There simply isn't; the latest poll indicates that only ~16% (can't recall the exact number) is open to that idea. From a governance perspective, you are going to get a hostile population regardless of that statistic being 16% or 6%.
Yea just like how Ukrainian nationalists can't be turned into fascist AZOV battalions after a few years? You know there are different levels of hostility right.

You will need to explain how exactly how 2000-3500 Indians - not all of whom will be cheap laborers - affect China's calculus of the Taiwan situation and why they would be of concern to China in the first place.
Spare me the high IQ H1B talent spiel. If you've researched Taiwan's Indian import policies you would know Taiwan is importing cheap Indian labour.

But hiring foreign workers in large numbers may not be easy. In November,
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reported that Taiwan could “hire as many as 100,000 Indians to work at factories, farms and hospitals.”

For comparison, there are approximately 15000 Indians in mainland China already.
First, those 15000 Indians are mostly temporary (students, businessmen), unless you have proof they have PR. Second, PRC doesn't have a policy to import cheap labour from India. Third, so because there are 15,000 Indians already living in PRC, we should import 100,000 or even 1,000,000 more Indians to China? What kind of logic is that?

Speaking of strawmans, lol. Both you and I know that the comparison was made with respective to the conflicts.
Yes, civil war in Taiwan is 100% like the civil war in Vietnam. There is one communist party faction that wants to reunite the whole country, while there is a nationalist party who only wants to keep the property they took. Fun fact, the communist parties in both regions have very close ties, the nationalist parties in both regions have even closer ties. If the KMT/rebel military could fight guerilla warfare, they wouldn't be stuck on that island for the past 75 years.

Taiwan is positioned as a bait to contain China's development and military in the region, au contraire. A military invasion gone awry will serve to bleed China's military resources, strain its economy, cause its adversaries to arm, all the while solidifying US presence in the Asia-Pacific region...it would be like China's own Vietnam but worse.

Not every conflict is a "Vietnam", your Vietnam example is the stupidest example of what reunification would end up like.

Honestly just stop arguing, if you were so confident with your arguments why did you delete your posts to begin with.
 
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Neurosmith

Junior Member
Registered Member
Your ignorance doesn't make it speculation. How are your arguments any different than the people who say China just issue empty threats and China's last warning jokes.
Because until those threats are fulfilled or at the very minimum backed up by explicit promises of action, those "last warnings" are just that - threats. You seem to be conflating strong language with actual military ultimatums like the one that Bush gave to Saddam.

Yea just like how Ukrainian nationalists can't be turned into fascist AZOV battalions after a few years right? You know there are different levels of hostility right.
Are there actual examples of this transition happening in Taiwan or is this another exercise in whataboutism? And let's actually entertain that possibility; if there is indeed a Taiwanese Azov battalion brewing in the region, how would fighting them be any different from doing so against - let's say - the regular Taiwanese forces?

Spare me the high IQ H1B talent spiel. If you've researched Taiwan's Indian import policies you would know Taiwan is importing cheap Indian labour.
You do realize that Taiwan has flat out denied that 100000 figure, right? There is an agreement between Taiwan and India for the importation of labor, but so far there have been no figures. There is no indication that the allotment would far exceed the current 2000-3500 Indians in Taiwan, and even if there were, how would that affect the Taiwan calculus in China's eyes? You've yet to explain the mechanics of Indian labourers in Taiwan throwing a wrench in China's reunification plans.

Yes, civil war in Taiwan is 100% like the civil war in Vietnam. There is one communist party faction that wants to reunite the whole country, while there is a nationalist party who only wants to keep the property they took. Fun fact, the communist parties in both regions have very close ties, the nationalist parties in both regions have even closer ties. If the KMT/rebel military could fight guerilla warfare, they wouldn't be stuck on that island for the past 75 years.
I don't think you understood the basis of my analogy. When I mentioned Vietnam, it was alluding to the optics of the Vietnam War from the US perspective: a protracted and bloody conflict with seemingly no end in sight. Except that - you're right - it would be different in China/Taiwan's case since China's adversaries can put immense pressure on it via economic sanctions and/or direct military action whereas the US never had to face such challenges back then.

Honestly just stop arguing, if you were so confident with your arguments why did you delete your posts to begin with.
Didn't want to go OT as this is a pure strategy thread rather than a "why-or-why-not-invade-Taiwan" thread.
 

coolgod

Colonel
Registered Member
Because until those threats are fulfilled or at the very minimum backed up by explicit promises of action, those "last warnings" are just that - threats. You seem to be conflating strong language with actual military ultimatums like the one that Bush gave to Saddam.
You argue China doesn't have a deadline on reunification. I gave an example of China's internal deadline regarding the return of Macau by quoting the book of PRC's lead negotiator with the Portuguese. You respond by rejecting reality and pleading ignorance, "China's negotiators are just mincing tough words and bluffing unlike Dubya, PRC didn't actually have an internal deadline". No thanks, I'll trust actual CPC politicians rather than randos like you on the topic of CPC internal strategies.

Are there actual examples of this transition happening in Taiwan or is this another exercise in whataboutism? And let's actually entertain that possibility; if there is indeed a Taiwanese Azov battalion brewing in the region, how would fighting them be any different from doing so against - let's say - the regular Taiwanese forces?
That's like asking is there a difference between ideological fanatics vs forced conscripts in battle. You answer your own stupid question.

You do realize that Taiwan has flat out denied that 100000 figure, right? There is an agreement between Taiwan and India for the importation of labor, but so far there have been no figures. There is no indication that the allotment would far exceed the current 2000-3500 Indians in Taiwan, and even if there were, how would that affect the Taiwan calculus in China's eyes? You've yet to explain the mechanics of Indian labourers in Taiwan throwing a wrench in China's reunification plans.
Taiwan flat out denied importing any Indians when the news first broke out. I've previously explained how your arguments are short sighted, reunification of China is a long term project and having a large number of Indian cheap labour increases long term governance costs. If you don't understand that then I hope your neighbourhood get culturally enriched by a bunch of Indians soon.

I don't think you understood the basis of my analogy. When I mentioned Vietnam, it was alluding to the optics of the Vietnam War from the US perspective: a protracted and bloody conflict with seemingly no end in sight. Except that - you're right - it would be different in China/Taiwan's case since China's adversaries can put immense pressure on it via economic sanctions and/or direct military action whereas the US never had to face such challenges back then.
I understood your analogy, it's just so retarded especially since China was actually involved in the Vietnam war and the KMT/Taiwanese backed forces lost. Your analogies makes as much sense as comparing the situation with Normandy or the Yuan invasion of Japan, except PRC China is the defending force.

Didn't want to go OT as this is a pure strategy thread rather than a "why-or-why-not-invade-Taiwan" thread.
So you deleted your post cause you acknowledge that this thread is about armed reunification? If your arguments are OT why respond then?
 
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Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
You argue China doesn't have a deadline on reunification. I gave an example of China's internal deadline regarding the return of Macau by quoting the book of PRC's lead negotiator with the Portuguese. You respond by rejecting reality and pleading ignorance, "China's negotiators are just mincing tough words and bluffing unlike Dubya, PRC didn't actually have an internal deadline". No thanks, I'll trust actual CPC politicians rather than randos like you on the topic of CPC internal strategies.


That's like asking is there a difference between ideological fanatics vs forced conscripts in battle. You answer your own stupid question.


Taiwan flat out denied importing any Indians when the news first broke out. I've previously explained how your arguments are short sighted, reunification of China is a long term project and having a large number of Indian cheap labour increases long term governance costs. If you don't understand that then I hope your neighbourhood get culturally enriched by a bunch of Indians soon.


I understood your analogy, it's just so retarded especially since China was actually involved in the Vietnam war and the KMT/Taiwanese backed forces lost. Your analogies makes as much sense as comparing the situation with Normandy or the Yuan invasion of Japan, except PRC China is the defending force.


So you deleted your post cause you acknowledge that this thread is about armed reunification? If your arguments are OT why respond then?
China can just deport Indians. I don't get why this is a point of concern for you. In fact doing so will build major rapport with Taiwanese.
 

coolgod

Colonel
Registered Member
China can just deport Indians. I don't get why this is a point of concern for you. In fact doing so will build major rapport with Taiwanese.
I'd prefer not to deal with Indians in the first place. Also do you know how much headache deporting Indians can be, Canadians already found out a while ago :p
 

GOODTREE

New Member
Registered Member
I'd prefer not to deal with Indians in the first place. Also do you know how much headache deporting Indians can be, Canadians already found out a while ago :p
The Indians are difficult to deal with, you are right, even more problematic are all the political habits and cultural structures of the Taiwanese that have been steeped in for decades, and the longer they are delayed, the more difficult they become to deal with.
Thank you for your answer!
However I still can't figure out one thing though, why not use the more straightforward amphibious assault ships, landing docks and hovercraft? Do you think the PLA is trying to expand the size of one deployment? (Never mind, I think I figure out now)
By the way, again, sorry for my comments on that ship, I wasn't thinking clearly about the timing of using she being used under secured defense perimeter after breaking out from the beach.
 
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