PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Temstar said:

Big Bun has already done some CGs in light of the recent news about the floating barge:
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For the landing fleet I think another piece of specialized equipment is necessary - a line of dedicated SHORAD ships to protect these artificial harbours from HIMARS and Thunderbolt 2000 attack. Imagine civilian grade hull filled from bow to stern with HHQ-10 and 1130, plus armament for dealing with USV (which might just be 1130 if it can be used in that capacity).

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Having a few as insurance is fine, but such heavy investment would imply the beachhead getting heavily shelled is a realistic prospect, which to be frank, would be totally unacceptable for China.

For the small chance and small number of such assets needed, the escorting national warships should be able to easily provide sufficient cover until the first waves of landing forces deploy, since having mobile AAA and HQ17 type assets deploying with the first wave would be reasonable and a much better investment of resources.

But personally I think the CGI guys missed a trick. They could have maximised trolling potential of these by depicting a string of these all linked together to force a road bridge straight across the strait.

plawolf said:

Having a few as insurance is fine, but such heavy investment would imply the beachhead getting heavily shelled is a realistic prospect, which to be frank, would be totally unacceptable for China.

For the small chance and small number of such assets needed, the escorting national warships should be able to easily provide sufficient cover until the first waves of landing forces deploy, since having mobile AAA and HQ17 type assets deploying with the first wave would be reasonable and a much better investment of resources.

But personally I think the CGI guys missed a trick. They could have maximised trolling potential of these by depicting a string of these all linked together to force a road bridge straight across the strait.

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They're just for any type of rapid beach deployment, not necessarily linked to Taiwan defense plans.

China is broadly transitioning towards a marine invasion based power. CVs aren't being built at a high rate, but LHDs are. When the 076 enters service, China will have ~80-90% of US' LHD/amphibious assault fleet in tonnage. The only other branch that so clearly aims for all aspect supremacy is the air force (which ostentibly gives cover to the marines).

For reference, China only has about 20% of US' DDGs and CVs. So the investment in amphibious assault is oversized, and these specialized ships imho is another step on that.

The type of power China is growing towards is one that can land a marine invasion in many parts of the world on short notice, especially in Asia, where CVs and fleet sized DDGs are not needed to project power.

Biscuits said:

They're just for any type of rapid beach deployment, not necessarily linked to Taiwan defense plans.

China is broadly transitioning towards a marine invasion based power. CVs aren't being built at a high rate, but LHDs are. When the 076 enters service, China will have ~80-90% of US' LHD/amphibious assault fleet in tonnage. The only other branch that so clearly aims for all aspect supremacy is the air force (which ostentibly gives cover to the marines).

For reference, China only has about 20% of US' DDGs and CVs. So the investment in amphibious assault is oversized, and these specialized ships imho is another step on that.

The type of power China is growing towards is one that can land a marine invasion in many parts of the world on short notice, especially in Asia, where CVs and fleet sized DDGs are not needed to project power.

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My point is that over investment in last ditch, last line defences is as unwise as it is unnecessary. You want to focus on eliminating the threat long long be before they get within gun and SHORAD range of your vulnerable and vulnerable landing forces.

If the PLA cannot ensure 99.9%+ of heavy ordnance threats to the beachhead are neutralised before they need CIWS, they frankly need to continue to invest for Taiwan instead of spending so heavily on long range amphibious assault assets and capabilities that are clearly looking way beyond just Taiwan.

I have long stressed that LPDs, LHDs and especially LHAs are totally beyond what is needed for Taiwan and that the PLA has way broader ambitions if they are forced to fight America over Taiwan. And no, China’s focus isn’t global, but rather more regional, at least to start with.

If America gets involved in the restart of the Chinese civil war, I would say China just taking back Taiwan is basically the worst acceptable outcome for Beijing, as that means China has exhausted its military just to secure the bare minimum strategic objectives of the war and has no strength left to push for bigger prizes.

Okinawa and surrounding islands would be like bronze metal tier. The silver medal would be Guam, and the gold medial is the Japanese home islands.

The scale and scope of Chinese amphibious investments only makes sense in that context.

Temstar said:

Big Bun has already done some CGs in light of the recent news about the floating barge:
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For the landing fleet I think another piece of specialized equipment is necessary - a line of dedicated SHORAD ships to protect these artificial harbours from HIMARS and Thunderbolt 2000 attack. Imagine civilian grade hull filled from bow to stern with HHQ-10 and 1130, plus armament for dealing with USV (which might just be 1130 if it can be used in that capacity).

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More CG pics from him, indicate armed vehicles are loaded from ships to the around-island highway near east coast.

Is this possible and valuable?

AndrewJ said:

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More CG pics from him, indicate armed vehicles are loaded from ships to the around-island highway near east coast.

Is this possible and valuable?

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That’s a lot of BYD Seals. Will probably collapse the Japanese auto market in Taiwan.

Overbom said:

These look to be perfect enough to shut up the "only a few beaches the PLA can land on" copers
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That's a really fascinating design! The note about jack-up legs adding stability solves the torque problem that first sprang to mind when I thought it might still be floating when docking. Solid engineering!

First issues to spring to mind, assuming this is real:
1) Coastal seabed depth is highly variable, so each landing craft would presumably have to be constructed with a specific landing point in mind, accounting for high and low tides.
2) The technology on which the jack-up legs is based is almost certainly borrowed from China's oil-rig construction experience, so if one wanted to disable a craft of this sort, it would make sense to look at how to quickly take out oil-rig supports.
3) The linked article states that only "some" of the 3-5 barges under construction have jack-up legs, so the ones that do would presumable have to speed up enough before landing that they could beach themselves firmly before extending their bridges. Otherwise, the bridge would be subject to twisting from the waves and be more likely to collapse. If accurate, those legless barges would be constructed with specific, shallow landing points in mind.

coolgod said:

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The 2000 deadline isn't speculation, don't make stuff up.

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It is speculation that China might've resorted to non-peaceful methods of reunification should the Portuguese have declined the 2000 date. This is in clear contrast to the Taiwan situation where the Chinese side have explicitly mentioned the use of military force in its Anti-Secession Law.

coolgod said:

Now you are just being dishonest, a lot has changed on Taiwan from 1996 to 2025, and a lot will change on Taiwan from 2025 to 2035. You really think the political stance of Taiwanese residents doesn't affect the population's attitude towards being ruled by the CPC?


No, don't setup a strawman. I gave an example to question your point about the best way to reintegrate a region.

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The change you are referring to, which I will assume refers to decreasing support for the KMT and increasing support for the DPP, matters to China only if there is still a significant number of the population of policymakers who are amenable to the idea of reunification under CCP rule. There simply isn't; the latest poll indicates that only ~16% (can't recall the exact number) is open to that idea. From a governance perspective, you are going to get a hostile population regardless of that statistic being 16% or 6%.

It would be hard to justify expediting a military campaign - the effects of which could have far-reaching consequences for China itself - just to chase after the minute segment of Taiwan's population that might support reunification.

coolgod said:

Another strawman. I said 23 million reasonably educated Chinese speaking population has negligible impact to the PRC now. Which part of this imply that a population of Indian cheap labour would not affect the long term governance cost of Taiwan.

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You will need to explain how exactly how 2000-3500 Indians - not all of whom will be cheap laborers - affect China's calculus of the Taiwan situation and why they would be of concern to China in the first place. For comparison, there are approximately 15000 Indians in mainland China already.

coolgod said:

Yes, Vietnam is totally like Taiwan, both have trees, rice, bananas growing on that land, access to the pacific ocean, and communists in hiding. I can't think of any difference between the two territories and their respective situations. /S

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Speaking of strawmans, lol. Both you and I know that the comparison was made with respective to the conflicts.

Blitzo said:

You don't even necessarily need the barges themselves to have it -- the nature of the distances involved means low draft escort ships with their own SAMs and CIWS could do the job.

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I always thought a modified Type-22 with SAM replacing AShM would fit this role perfectly. Combined with modified MM and CSG ships as well

GOODTREE said:

Maybe they'll only figure it out when the cannon goes to their heads. Let's hope so.

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Back to the military aspect. You must realize that if they are failing to meet their peacetime enlistment numbers, it will be too late for war time. Maybe you can turn them into a basic infantry in a few months, especially if the conscription training became more serious (which it is not currently), but basic infantry is not what Taiwan would need. They are basically fodder for drones and artillery.

plawolf said:

But personally I think the CGI guys missed a trick. They could have maximised trolling potential of these by depicting a string of these all linked together to force a road bridge straight across the strait.

Click to expand...

siegecrossbow said:

That’s a lot of BYD Seals. Will probably collapse the Japanese auto market in Taiwan.

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Hilariously these were the first things I thought of when I saw these renderings. Honestly the latter might not be out of the question. If Chinese car exports increase, this could be a way to alleviate port congestion in combination with automated driving systems for unloading.

What's more interesting is who will operate these new special types of equipment. Would they be assigned to army watercraft units, naval units, or some special civilian operator similar to the Maritime Sealift Command? I would also wager they will build larger and more suited RORO ships like USN's LMSRs. The Bohai and Zhuhai ferries are relatively small and carry fewer vehicles and fewer options to carry extra cargo on deck.

siegecrossbow said:

That’s a lot of BYD Seals. Will probably collapse the Japanese auto market in Taiwan.

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Luxgen be like