Agree. However, i believe the reason China hasn't launched an invasion of taiwan is also due to consideration of the US involvement and support for Taiwan. I believe if there was no US presence or involvement in this issue then China would have reunited with Taiwan by now. Would have been a much more easier endeavour and Taiwan's consideration would have been different as well due to this reality.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
I've always felt that the anti-air and anti-rocket(like HIMARS) work in the initial landing stage should be done by the Navy's surface fleet, especially frigates like 054As, with a subsequent transition to ground-based air defences. But there doesn't seem to be very effective evidence that the PLAN has embarked on such training disciplines (although technically there doesn't seem like there should be a difficulty)
I absolutely agree with this, but my concern about this is, will the Taiwanese realize it? People often seem to overestimate the sanity of others, as if they will surrender once we have better conditions. Yet people are often stupid, they can be stubborn, they can be obstinate, they can arrive at bad decisions based on past experience, and they can invite disaster because of the immaturity of their politicians. All of these Taiwan fits, not to mention its ruling polity's decades-long education of its region with the individualistic tendencies of its younger generation. Not to mention the control of the US as the foremost supporter of its polity either. People may like to listen to the strong, but that doesn't apply to the above case.
Sorry for missing the point, are you saying that Ukraine as a failed state still manages to control a group of people who are extremely anti-Ukrainian and desire to join Russia, and that the anti-China elements in Taiwan are on a lower level than them?
It's not that simple, I'm more worried here not so much about the Taiwanese, but the impact of 28 million Chinese language learners on China at all levels. The process could be a long one, like eating puffer fish guts, and the sooner you end the situation, the less toxins you'll have to deal with when the time comes.
We can only seek the best outcome, assuming that the US will not intervene for various reasons, naturally everything will be fine, if the US intervenes militarily, naturally it will be another matter.
But I can say to you that if there is going to be a fight, we and they must have a fight.
Last edited:
Consider this - prior to them dying in 2022 and 2023, there were heaps of volunteers for AFU, some of them are even "ideologically motivate".
On the other hand for ROC:
At this time their line units (not the 1 year conscript units, professional miliary) are only manned to 78.6% of their on paper strength, that's down by 10% from 2020's 88.57%. Their own critically low limit that they set themselves is 85%. Even the 88% of 2020 were boosted by simply disbanding a number of brigades and shuffling the troops into other units.
In any decently run country this would be a big deal that ruling party should fix. And if the people themselves are serious about independence they should line up at the recruitment office to defend their country, but they are doing the very opposite of that.
But I think this stat is misleading since Taiwan's age pyramid is inverted. Also CIA helped train and expand AZOV a lot after 2014, you wouldn't have this many AFU volunteers prior to 2014.
Yes. It doesn't matter how anti-x a group says they are, the principle problem is advancing the contact line past them and they'll be obedient as sheep, even when you have an unstable and failing government.
Huh? Chinese on Taiwan all already speak Chinese... It's not like they speak hindi lol
And if there's Jais which were imported by hanjian to pollute Chinese soil, China can literally just all revoke their work visas instantly.
Yes I agree, fighting is necessary.
Due to their education, their understanding of real politics is very naive and they have no concept of it at all, even more so than the younger generation in the West, and some of them simply cannot comprehend what it means for Taiwan to become independent and what consequences it will bring to them. This also leads to the fact that you can't convince them at all. For most people, Taiwan is their whole world. This is certainly not the case, so they make excellent petri dishes for all sorts of Western ideologies.
From what other people hear: Taiwan is not driven to war by strong nationalist sentiments, but is in a weird utilitarianism mood. So much so that when they hear the mainland's statements about Taiwan's independence, instead of anger, they feel more confused and disoriented. They simply cannot understand family and national sentiments or anything like that.
However, anyone who actually knows anything about reality would probably go to war in wartime, and being in that environment, you'd hardly have any choice but to join it.
We've talked too much guys, let's get back on thread.
Last edited:
Having been there fairly recently, and dealing with people who have something to lose (i.e. normal people with jobs, families, businesses), the prevailing attitude is that no-one is willing to die for what is essentially a change in government, first KMT, then DPP, now CPC. You can't fight a force of nature.
People with the means will just flee with their families and their wealth, the rest aim to minimize damage to themselves as much as possible. If their kids object, then too bad, somebody getting an ass whooping; "if you run away on us, then you don't get the Taipei apartment; we're not giving you anything, even if you survive".
Even the pro-independence 'normal people' will not fork out support more than token financial aid, because in the absence of the US, they see the probability of local forces driving off the PLA as a non-starter. Even with the US in the picture, they are not convinced that the US will bleed for them, and thus will only put real money on the table if they see a decisive US win on hand.
The bulk of the politicians will fold as soon as they get a whiff of defeat; those that can't back out will most likely hop on a plane to Guam as soon as they can, punching their staffers to prevent them weighing down their evac.
Maybe they'll only figure it out when the cannon goes to their heads. Let's hope so.
Hey, anybody wanna talk about that ship?
I always had a feeling it was a little less reliable.
The first is how is it supposed to adjust the height, or angle, of the pontoon? If it's as shown in the picture, it can at best be adjusted up or down a couple degrees at most.
The second is, is the Pontoon Bridge too narrow? But wouldn't it be a pain in the ass if vehicles got stuck in the middle?
Third is, why does it have so many masts?
I always had a feeling it was a little less reliable.
The first is how is it supposed to adjust the height, or angle, of the pontoon? If it's as shown in the picture, it can at best be adjusted up or down a couple degrees at most.
The second is, is the Pontoon Bridge too narrow? But wouldn't it be a pain in the ass if vehicles got stuck in the middle?
Third is, why does it have so many masts?
Last edited: