PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

drowingfish

Junior Member
Registered Member
1931 and 1937 both showed that Japanese military does not report to its government and acts on its own.
I know, as I said I am merely trying to have a logical discussion. Of course people can be irrational, but if that is all we are concerned with then there is no point to be talking here. I have laid out what does and does not makes sense for relevant actors, sure they can deviate from that but they will also suffer the consequences of doing so. I am not sure why you are so fixated on trying to predict stupidity, adds zero value to the discussion.
 

Ringsword

Junior Member
Registered Member
1931 and 1937 both showed that Japanese military does not report to its government and acts on its own.
I remember that incident BUT this is not Japan of 1937 AND more importantly Not the China of 1937 with a nation and people still trying to uplift,modernize,prosper and strengthen after still the 100 years of humiliation/attacks/atrocities but basically a true superpower(up yours jai hind) and truly strong/getting stronger daily with a historical blood grudge esp. Japan-A test of PLAN alertness and gov't response but if that jap destroyer had made any aggressive moves-(unthinkably fire its guns at Shanghai/launch a missile-all hell would break loose and nothing would restrain the PLAN to sink that jap ship-the Chinese nation would be ENRAGED and demand blood)the jap capt was sacked IIRC and incident investigated.So Akie Abe go back to Tokyo and report what the state and power and determination of China and don't make another "mistake"-it'll be Japan's last.
 
Last edited:

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
I remember that incident BUT this is not Japan of 1937 AND more importantly Not the China of 1937 with a nation and people still trying to uplift,modernize,prosper and strengthen after still the 100 years of humiliation/attacks/atrocities but basically a true superpower(up yours jai hind) and truly strong/getting stronger daily with a historical blood grudge esp. Japan-A test of PLAN alertness and gov't response but if that jap destroyer had made any aggressive moves-(unthinkably fire its guns at Shanghai/launch a missile-all hell would break loose and nothing would restrain the PLAN to sink that jap ship-the Chinese nation would be ENRAGED and demand blood)the jap capt was sacked IIRC and incident investigated.So Akie Abe go back to Tokyo and report what the state and power and determination of China and don't make another "mistake"-it'll be Japan's last.
That's really pathetic from Japan nationalists then. China would never have sacked a captain after he did innocent transit in another country's waters. PLA ships are even often allowed to lase or lock on to targets as a warning.

People forget that Japan are Asians, not Indians. They're not anywhere as blind as most people think. They might not genuinely respect China, but they keep up appearences because they're well aware it's arguably the most powerful country in the world and they sit right next to it.

Imho when the ultimatum is given, Japan will fold to China. Hirohitoites hate US and China equally. US however has no reason or ability to destroy Japan if Japan assumes "neutrality" and denies US aggression. On the other hand, China has a strong will and ability alike to wipe out Japan if Japan sides with US.

The way I think the civil war conflict itself will play out is that China will keep using overt and covert diplomacy in SK and Japan for a few more years.

US seeing that it's impossible to gather up an invasion force without Japanese support will simply drop all their claims to Taiwan and memory hole it.

China will delete the KMT in a few days or heavily pressure them for negotiated surrender, US will not interfere other than calling it Xinjiang genocide 2.0.

But after that, the problem of Japan and other US influenced countries in Asia still remains, there will be another showdown at a later date.
 

kurutoga

Junior Member
Registered Member
I remember that incident BUT this is not Japan of 1937 AND more importantly Not the China of 1937 with a nation and people still trying to uplift,modernize,prosper and strengthen after still the 100 years of humiliation/attacks/atrocities but basically a true superpower(up yours jai hind) and truly strong/getting stronger daily with a historical blood grudge esp. Japan-A test of PLAN alertness and gov't response but if that jap destroyer had made any aggressive moves-(unthinkably fire its guns at Shanghai/launch a missile-all hell would break loose and nothing would restrain the PLAN to sink that jap ship-the Chinese nation would be ENRAGED and demand blood)the jap capt was sacked IIRC and incident investigated.So Akie Abe go back to Tokyo and report what the state and power and determination of China and don't make another "mistake"-it'll be Japan's last.

Let's just put it this way. The two governments can pretend everything is fine when they meet. But we all know there is no trust. The survey said 90% of Japanese hates China, in the other direction it is probably the same.

Taiwan war is a perfect situation for Japan to unleash that hatred, and it will be China's best opportunity to cause some damages. The Yasukuni Shrine will probably be categorized as a military target.

Do you understand if US uses Kadena base to launch attacks on the PLA would be an act of war of Japan? I don't think Japanese governments (especially under Abe) was all that ignorant. They knew exactly what it means and prepared for it.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
Let's just put it this way. The two governments can pretend everything is fine when they meet. But we all know there is no trust. The survey said 90% of Japanese hates China, in the other direction it is probably the same.

Taiwan war is a perfect situation for Japan to unleash that hatred, and it will be China's best opportunity to cause some damages. The Yasukuni Shrine will probably be categorized as a military target.

Do you understand if US uses Kadena base to launch attacks on the PLA would be an act of war of Japan? I don't think Japanese governments (especially under Abe) was all that ignorant. They knew exactly what it means and prepared for it.
But then Abe got the Haniyeh treatment and now Japan is heading on the Korea path where their policy is that the civil war is China's affair only. Chinese are getting more at home visiting Japan, Japanese youth are discovering Chinese media products etc.

So as you wrote the CCW is a good time for Japan to unleash any hatred they have for China, yes, but why is the reason Japanese hate China to begin with? Well, the average Japanese pleb doesn't hate Chinese at all, but the reason the LDP(Hirohitoite) leaders hate China is that China cucked Japan out of its empire in ww2. But wait, didn't US also do that as well?

While there is still a good chance China might have to militarily pacify Japan and China certainly won't shy away from doing it, I do not think a diplomatic solution or at least a diplomatic delay action is impossible. In fact, it's quite likely. Why? Because Japan has no reason to choose US over China or vice versa when we're equally bad in their minds. And the direction society is moving is towards less hostility. So when you got two equally annoying threats, you'd choose to delay the more directly dangerous threat.

LDP dinosaurs have a dream to reclaim Japan empire, but very few Japanese ages 16-40 wants the same. And though all LDP are extreme nationalists, there are many which represent the pan-Asian anti-US idea in their ranks as well.
 

kurutoga

Junior Member
Registered Member
But then Abe got the Haniyeh treatment and now Japan is heading on the Korea path where their policy is that the civil war is China's affair only. Chinese are getting more at home visiting Japan, Japanese youth are discovering Chinese media products etc.

So as you wrote the CCW is a good time for Japan to unleash any hatred they have for China, yes, but why is the reason Japanese hate China to begin with? Well, the average Japanese pleb doesn't hate Chinese at all, but the reason the LDP(Hirohitoite) leaders hate China is that China cucked Japan out of its empire in ww2. But wait, didn't US also do that as well?

While there is still a good chance China might have to militarily pacify Japan and China certainly won't shy away from doing it, I do not think a diplomatic solution or at least a diplomatic delay action is impossible. In fact, it's quite likely. Why? Because Japan has no reason to choose US over China or vice versa when we're equally bad in their minds. And the direction society is moving is towards less hostility. So when you got two equally annoying threats, you'd choose to delay the more directly dangerous threat.

LDP dinosaurs have a dream to reclaim Japan empire, but very few Japanese ages 16-40 wants the same. And though all LDP are extreme nationalists, there are many which represent the pan-Asian anti-US idea in their ranks as well.

I think you are a little too naive on Japan. Not too long ago (I think it was 3 or 4 years ago), Japanese gov hired a team of legal experts to find ways under the mutual defense treaty, to allow the US military to use Kadena to attack PLA without prior authorization of the Japanese gov. Such that Japan can face China with an innocent look: The US started it! The US guy they hired can't believe that is possible. So he suggested the change in MDT with text covering "West Pacific". Then he wrote about the experience in an article which was online.

That was from the highest level of the Japanese gov. They are apparently preparing for war in all fronts.

The survey said 90% of Japanese people hate China. You tell me why
 
Last edited:

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
I think you are a little too naive on Japan. Not too long ago (I think it was 3 or 4 years ago), Japanese gov hired a team of legal experts to find ways under the mutual defense treaty, to allow the US military to use Kadena to attack PLA without prior authorization of the Japanese gov. Such that Japan can face China with an innocent look: The US started it! The US guy they hired can't believe that is possible. So he suggested the change in MDT with text covering "West Pacific". Then he wrote about the experience in an article which was online.
Okay so if some faction in Japan's government wanted to do this, what is the motive?

You're saying that 90% of Japanese hate China, if so, there should be no recruitment problems or morale issues or any need for strategic deception to say "US did it". Because if Japan is so ready and raring to fight China, why would they pursue this arrangement to blame US for using Kadena? They should just attack China with every Japanese airbase and ship at once, it would have a higher chance of doing something than just letting US take off with a few planes like a thief in the night from Kadena.
That was from the highest level of the Japanese gov. They are apparently preparing for war in all fronts.
Well what you wrote only illustrates more the whiffling and waffling Japan had continously had regarding whether to support American territorial aggression.

It doesn't sound like preparing for war. It sounds like preparing for passing the blame to US and giving Japan an out.

Let's say the secret agreement works, USAF units head to support the US invasion. China's first move won't be to bomb hospitals in Tokyo or some other outrageous act. They'll shoot down the planes from Kadena and raze Kadena airfield itself to the ground first.

Then what? Japan government will mobilise whole Japanese society for revenge over the lives of 3000 loud mouthed foreigners? Is that truly the best way to mobilise Japan?

Or will Japan (which as you remember, it's a secret agreement) simply say "we had no idea Americans would betray us by attacking you from our territory! We're now telling the Americans to leave for this blatant betrayal of trust, so don't attack us!".
The survey said 90% of Japanese people hate China. You tell me why
It's a survey made by white house bots.
 

kurutoga

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don't believe such an agreement or amendment to MDT had to be secrete. Legal preparation is very important when seeking war justifications. What the Japanese government had done, especially Abe's "台湾有事は日本有事", violates the 1972 China-Japan treaty. It is fairly clearly what the Japanese gov's attitude is, when such a topic is even being discussed as a valid policy choice. It is not just one person or one party.

"台湾有事は日本有事" is fairly easy to understand. Japan still has unofficial territory claims over Taiwan, but they want to hide that ambition and wait for an opportunity. Anyone wants to have a neighbor like that? Japanese overall is reckless. If you trust them it's your own choice.

PLA must prepare for an all out war against Japan not because China loves war but because the lives of all the millions of Chinese killed by Japanese in the past. Yet war criminals are still enshrined today and cherished by all Japanese politicians especially the PM. Japanese must think we are all fools. But who is going to tell them we know exactly what they are doing
 
Last edited:

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
I don't believe such an agreement or amendment to MDT had to be secrete. Legal preparation is very important when seeking war justifications. What the Japanese government had done, especially Abe's "台湾有事は日本有事", violates the 1972 China-Japan treaty. It is fairly clearly what the Japanese gov's attitude is, when such a topic is even being discussed as a valid policy choice. It is not just one person or one party.

"台湾有事は日本有事" is fairly easy to understand. Japan still has unofficial territory claims over Taiwan, but they want to hide that ambition.

Japanese overall is reckless. If you trust them it's your own choice. PLA must prepare for an all out war against Japan not because China loves war but because the lives of all the millions of Chinese killed by Japanese in the past. Yet war criminals are still enshrined today and cherished by all Japanese politicians especially the PM. Japanese must think we are all fools. But who is going to tell them we know exactly what they are doing
China by default will always attack Japan, after all, Japan was their former colony that turned rebellious and caused a schism in Asia. It is not about defending what China already has in Taiwan, it is about reclaiming what once belonged to China's ancestors.

But what we're seeing is some signs that Japan might try to convince China of reconciliation. And this won't be easy because most of China views Japan as an upstart that needs to put in its place by force. On the other hand, the Pro-US stance in Japan is viewed as the unpopular dinosaur relic that crashed the economy and sold the nation, while China is by middle aged generally viewed as a neutral trading nation and by youth generally viewed as a modern and exicitng entertainment/tech provider. So the progress of time making Japan more pro-China also weighs into the equation.

Abe is literally dead and his widow is spending new years in China, I'm not gonna hyper fixate on his attempts to start a war whether they are real or not, since it's clear his faction is pretty dead.
 

kurutoga

Junior Member
Registered Member
China by default will always attack Japan, after all, Japan was their former colony that turned rebellious and caused a schism in Asia.

But what we're seeing is some signs that Japan might try to convince China of reconciliation. And this won't be easy because most of China views Japan as an upstart that needs to put in its place by force. On the other hand, the Pro-US stance in Japan is viewed as the unpopular dinosaur relic that crashed the economy and sold the nation, while China is by middle aged generally viewed as a neutral trading nation and by youth generally viewed as a modern and exicitng entertainment/tech provider. So the progress of time making Japan more pro-China also weighs into the equation.

Abe is literally dead and his widow is spending new years in China, I'm not gonna hyper fixate on his attempts to start a war whether they are real or not, since it's clear his faction is pretty dead.

That is a nice revision of history. Japan is among the 15 不征之国 according to 皇明祖训

Still, Japan remains the strongest support of Taiwan's independence movement in all aspects. Japan is often called by those Taiwanese as "spiritual motherland". For Japan to attempt any sort of reconciliation the big hurdle is Taiwan and I see no hope Japan can come to its senses on its own.
 
Top