never underestimate racism and hubris.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
lcloo
Captain
There are more than one hundred thousand Taiwanese staying on Mainland, they are businessmen, management level executives and students。 In the 2021 population census, there were 157,886 Taiwanese staying in Mainland, Hongkong and Macau.
These people are useful as a link to connect the island people who have never been travelling to Mainland China, and they can potentially be employed to convert the mind set of other Taiwanese who have been brainwashed to chose independence. They can also be employed as public adminstrators of the civil services in a reunited Taiwan. Then there are also large number of KMT party members who are pro-unification and pro-Mainland China.
It is unacceptable for Asia to be destroyed whilst america and the rest of the west gets to sit back with popcorn as their feared rivals in Asia decimate themselves.
In any case, taiwan isn't ukraine and China isn't Russia; it's far more likely that AR would be over quickly if other nations respect the One China Policy but if not, then Japan et al coming into conflict with China would demand the US to send troops otherwise US treaties won't meant squat. Assuming that the US breaks its word under the rationale that 'it's only Asians and we dont need to keep our word with Asians' and given the europeans would believe it and go along with it just to see Asia go down, China should see to it that the US gets itself similary bloodied with the Chinese domination of Australia, New Zealand and Hawaii and Alaska.
If US doesn't commit forces however, China can just roll over Japan and Philippines.
It also makes absolutely no sense why China would want to contain a conflict solely on Taiwan where they're being invaded by Japan and Philippines. Even a country like Ukraine tried incursions into Russia proper instead of containing the conflict to Crimea and Donbass only. The present situation (in the suggested Japan and Philippines war with no direct US involvement) is essentially like a what-if Ukraine had the only 5th gen fighters in the war, a 50%+ of US' VLS count fleet, highest ability by far to make missiles in the region and air supremacy in 1000s of kms across the contact line.
Under these conditions, do you think "Ukraine" would have limited itself to doing it's best to contain the conflict to the separatist territories? Or would they use their overwhelming power to ensure "Russia" can never invade them again?
I agree the risk of a direct US-China war is pretty low now, but it is still the worse case scenario.
Just remember that a few years ago, both Biden and the Japanese Prime Minister publicly said they had the option of going to war with China over Taiwan. But since then they've stepped back.
We now have the Japanese Foreign Minister saying Taiwan's security is not Japan's security and repudiating prior government statements. Plus it looks like Trump (and the key members of his incoming administration) also see a US-China war as not an option.
And remember Taiwan is an island which is close to China. So I don't see how Taiwan can avoid a sustained blockade and therefore eventual collapse.
We can't really trust whatever Japanese said. Remember their people on the streets used "Japan was in trouble and needed more farmland" as the justification for the 1931 invasion of China. Japanese has an imperial mindset, and the history to prove it. For China, it has to be assumed that Japan will actively declare war on China (or at least to the effect of) during Taiwan conflict, because Japanese gov allowing US forces to use their bases in Japan to attack PLA is an act of war against China.
So far we are pretty clear:
- China's move on reunification is making steady gains, especially the military option. And, it should happen in the next 10 years that we will see a solution. This should be stressed.
- Supporting Taiwan Independence is now a crime in China with death penalty, in the Criminal Code. What this means is the traditional "One Country Two System" is off the table
- China's best case scenario is Taiwan will surrender
- China's worst case scenario is a (direct or proxy) war against US. That implies attacking Japan's main island, not just defending against Japanese missiles fired from Okinawa
- If it is a proxy war, Japan is most likely the proxy despite what they all say now
- An interesting side effect of Taiwan unification is Russia. There will be less interests in the east, Russia could give up its far east region to China. This is unthinkable before. However, the far east region had been losing population fast, and there is no hope for economic development. The large land area is now a burden to Russia and it gets worse
- South Korea is less of a worry mainly because of North Korea is the counter balance to some degree
- I am not sure what US' plan about East Asia, mainly the bases in Japan and SK. But, direct participation of Taiwan war means, if China end up winning, US will lose influence in the entire East Asia, something for Trump to wonder.
I just dont see how Japan or Australia etc would do anything if the US is not fully committed. If they were to intervene, they MUST have some sort of guarantees. It's not like they can grab a paddle and paddle themselves away, they are stuck with China.
In any case loss of Taiwan is terrible for the US, but not so for Japan, Philippines and Australia. Because heightened tension in the Pacific will force the US to devote more attention to those countries and thus give them more leverage, some parallels can be found in Japan's resurgence as a result of the Korean War. Meanwhile, China, having achieved its strategic objective, would now be hard pressed to assuage fear of further expansion. These countries on the periphery should expect some sort of olive branch from China as well.
The Japanese warship JS Suzutsuki entered Chinese waters in 2024. By carefully entering 12nm range, thus within max range of its main gun, it made a gesture to simulate the attack of Shanghai and ignored warnings. I think Japan cannot control its military thus we can not always trust Japan as a rational player
gestures are gestures, when it really counts I highly doubt the ship's commander and crews are that stupid. In any case I am merely conjecturing based on where each actor's interest lie, if they do not act rationally, then no point in any analysis because there is no axiom to go off of.
1931 and 1937 both showed that Japanese military does not report to its government and acts on its own.