PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

In the event of AR, my belief is that the US would be using Japan and Philippines as supply bases. If push comes to shove, the US may even use them for combat sorties.

The goal of the US is to bleed China without escalating into direct conflict, which would hurt the US. Ironically, this aligns with China’s goal of recovering Taiwan without escalating into a regional war, which would hurt China’s rise.

Therefore, I believe the US would want to limit the conflict to Taiwan, and as long as the US does not use Japan or Philippines to attack the Mainland, China will not attack those bases.

solarz said:

In the event of AR, my belief is that the US would be using Japan and Philippines as supply bases. If push comes to shove, the US may even use them for combat sorties.

The goal of the US is to bleed China without escalating into direct conflict, which would hurt the US. Ironically, this aligns with China’s goal of recovering Taiwan without escalating into a regional war, which would hurt China’s rise.

Therefore, I believe the US would want to limit the conflict to Taiwan, and as long as the US does not use Japan or Philippines to attack the Mainland, China will not attack those bases.

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Problem is Taiwan is claimed as Chinese territory, attacking PLA near or on Taiwan would be invasion of China. If the Chinese gov can explain that US has rights to bomb Taiwan (e.g. TSMC), I don't know if the people or even the political elites would agree. Xi's reputation would collapse if he ever tries that one.

Now think about the Korea War, the Sino-India War, and the Sino-Vietnam War. Scope of conflict can be easier managed on foreign land. On Chinese land? not a chance.

Taiwan war can be easily managed from US perspective, because it is on foreign land (foreign to the US). Why should the PLA view everything from US perspective though?

kurutoga said:

The Japanese warship JS Suzutsuki entered Chinese waters in 2024. By carefully entering 12nm range, thus within max range of its main gun, it made a gesture to simulate the attack of Shanghai and ignored warnings. I think Japan cannot control its military thus we can not always trust Japan as a rational player

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I think it was a mistake of incompetence of the captain which was replaced soon after. Realistically what Suzutsuki alone could do to Chinese coast. If China really wanted, it would get sunk in a few minutes, no doubt, but it is unnecessary as the tension would be extremely high. What China could do, just do the same regularly just outside 12nm limit, sail along the coast near Tokyo. Just use old reliable type 054A just to make the point of FON is a two way street

kurutoga said:

1931 and 1937 both showed that Japanese military does not report to its government and acts on its own.

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Japan today is very different.

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Even if it was possible to conquer Japan, is it worth the cost? I don't think so

That means China has to live with Japan.

So what should China's ultimate objective be with regards to Japan?

If Japan ditches the US alliance and switches to China, I think China should welcome this as continuing to hold a grudge would be counterproductive

solarz said:

In the event of AR, my belief is that the US would be using Japan and Philippines as supply bases. If push comes to shove, the US may even use them for combat sorties.

The goal of the US is to bleed China without escalating into direct conflict, which would hurt the US. Ironically, this aligns with China’s goal of recovering Taiwan without escalating into a regional war, which would hurt China’s rise.

Therefore, I believe the US would want to limit the conflict to Taiwan, and as long as the US does not use Japan or Philippines to attack the Mainland, China will not attack those bases.

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But how can the US use Japan and Philippines as supply bases to bleed China?

All the ports and seaports in Taiwan would be under attack, with cargo ships and transport planes unable to get through.

antiterror13 said:

I think it was a mistake of incompetence of the captain which was replaced soon after. Realistically what Suzutsuki alone could do to Chinese coast. If China really wanted, it would get sunk in a few minutes, no doubt, but it is unnecessary as the tension would be extremely high. What China could do, just do the same regularly just outside 12nm limit, sail along the coast near Tokyo. Just use old reliable type 054A just to make the point of FON is a two way street

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Retaliation isn't important however it is a sign Japan's civilian gov can not control its military. Suzutsuki ignored more than 20 minutes of warning, therefore it is intentional and not a mistake.

It reminded me each time Japanese fucks up, they would come out give a 90 degree bow as if everything will be for given. That looks really nice on TV. But, in reality it shows the lack of sense of consequences, an act of irresponsibility.

kurutoga said:

That is a nice revision of history. Japan is among the 15 不征之国 according to 皇明祖训

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No other country in the world uses kanji besides China and Japan. There is a profound closeness in values that makes an annexation desirable.


The ties were de facto overlord and subject no matter what racist historians with ideas of who was a barbarian or not described them as, and furthermore, the right of China to be Japan's overlord is also reinforced by the Potsdam declaration.

This is hardly a fringe position in Chinese society, that they reserve the right to restore a Chinese led vassal state by force in the event of Japan not being able to avoid aggression.

kurutoga said:

Still, Japan remains the strongest support of Taiwan's independence movement in all aspects. Japan is often called by those Taiwanese as "spiritual motherland". For Japan to attempt any sort of reconciliation the big hurdle is Taiwan and I see no hope Japan can come to its senses on its own.

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US is the strongest supporter of Taiwan annexation by far, they're the only nation that has actually lifted arms for the purpose. Japan is at worst showing indications of being a "Belarus" that will not condemn or even verbally praise US aggression and let them transit/supply freely, but there's a reason none of the 4 Taiwan strait crises involved anyone but US.

Like I said, the ball is in Japan's court. If China's intent is only to defend Taiwan, it could have done so without building the world's no1 military. Or procuring assets that are aimed at storming major nations from the sea.

AndrewS said:

Japan today is very different.

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Even if it was possible to conquer Japan, is it worth the cost? I don't think so

That means China has to live with Japan.

So what should China's ultimate objective be with regards to Japan?

If Japan ditches the US alliance and switches to China, I think China should welcome this as continuing to hold a grudge would be counterproductive

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China only dislikes Japan because they want to support US aggression. If Japan does a 180 turn against US like the Maidan did for Ukraine against Russia, China would probably care only the bare minimum about Nanjing massacre or other events, just like modern Poles or Baltics barely give a shit that Bandera's gang were killing 100 000s of them.

(China probably care slightly more since they have backbones unlike Baltics, but only to the extent of "it's fine as long as they never show the particular war criminals' faces in a positive light", unlike Poles which are cuckolding to a nation openly fighting under Bandera flag)

The present is all important and the past is only important to facilitate the goals of the present.

kurutoga said:

I think you are a little too naive on Japan. Not too long ago (I think it was 3 or 4 years ago), Japanese gov hired a team of legal experts to find ways under the mutual defense treaty, to allow the US military to use Kadena to attack PLA without prior authorization of the Japanese gov. Such that Japan can face China with an innocent look: The US started it! The US guy they hired can't believe that is possible. So he suggested the change in MDT with text covering "West Pacific". Then he wrote about the experience in an article which was online.

That was from the highest level of the Japanese gov. They are apparently preparing for war in all fronts.

The survey said 90% of Japanese people hate China. You tell me why

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If Japan really wants to prepare for war with China, then they really should be spending way more.

For example, look at Polish military spending:

2021: 2.2% of GDP
2025: around 4.7% of GDP

That is military spending increasing by more than 2x.

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In comparison, in 2022, Japan announced a doubling of military spending from 1% to 2%.
But in 2025, they'll only be at 1.5% of GDP. This is still less than the Chinese level.

Hey I am all for regional peace and world peace. But Japan is not the victim here.

This is the thread where we discuss (to put it mildly) Japan helps US to attack China over Taiwan, not the other way around. If Japan absolutely have no intention to help US to attack the PLA, I am sure the Japanese people and the government would make that clear to the United States and allow no room for misunderstanding. That is not the world we live in.

In our version of the universe, Japan is the aggressor not the victim. We debate the appropriate amount of retaliation PLA must apply onto Japan's main islands, not just Okinawa. Then there is another outcome that China loses the war to Japan-US coalition. Then this region will have at least 100 years of non stop fighting. Nuclear war isn't impossible.

If Japan is rational and sane, you need to do something explicitly toward the US, and, to Taiwan's Lai gov, so nobody will misjudge the situation that is approaching us in a few years.

solarz said:

In the event of AR, my belief is that the US would be using Japan and Philippines as supply bases. If push comes to shove, the US may even use them for combat sorties.

The goal of the US is to bleed China without escalating into direct conflict, which would hurt the US. Ironically, this aligns with China’s goal of recovering Taiwan without escalating into a regional war, which would hurt China’s rise.

Therefore, I believe the US would want to limit the conflict to Taiwan, and as long as the US does not use Japan or Philippines to attack the Mainland, China will not attack those bases.

Click to expand...

I have postulated that China actually doesnt mind the US bombing TSMC. TSMC was not China's reason for taking Taiwan, but if bombing it give the US an excuse (for their home crowd) for no further action, then China will happily accept that and take the rest of Taiwan in their pocket.

Bombing TSMC, if it can be proven that it was done by the US, will result in an immediate capitulation of Taiwanese resistance. Because it communicates US intent to leave Taiwan to China but deny the latter access to chip manufacturing. Remarkably, I think this is actually an acceptable outcome for both China and the US, just not for Taiwan lol.