Hey I am all for regional peace and world peace. But Japan is not the victim here.
This is the thread where we discuss (to put it mildly) Japan helps US to attack China over Taiwan, not the other way around. If Japan absolutely have no intention to help US to attack the PLA, I am sure the Japanese people and the government would make that clear to the United States and allow no room for misunderstanding. That is not the world we live in.
In our version of the universe, Japan is the aggressor not the victim. We debate the appropriate amount of retaliation PLA must apply onto Japan's main islands, not just Okinawa. Then there is another outcome that China loses the war to Japan-US coalition. Then this region will have at least 100 years of non stop fighting. Nuclear war isn't impossible.
If Japan is rational and sane, you need to do something explicitly toward the US, and, to Taiwan's Lai gov, so nobody will misjudge the situation that is approaching us in a few years.
Japan has a population of 124 million. China has the tech/training capability to blockade Japan, but to actually defeat them will take years. The saving grace is that the ability of Japan to mobilise is questionable, they're not Ukraine that has inherited a lot of Soviet weapons and more importantly the Soviet draft system. And that Japan's indigenous air defense is rather limited, without US boost, it is worse than Ukraine's, let alone Russia's (despite Japanese gdp being near Russia level).
It is quite within reach for the current air force/navy to conduct a heavy air campaign over Japan, at least in the Kyushu and Hokkaido islands.
In my view, rather than showing the Japanese counteroffensive as China's vengeance on all of Japan, it is better to appeal to the average civilian by casting that China wishes to be friends with average Japanese, but the tyrannical LDP which has hijacked the government brought the JSDF into conflict with China - against the wishes of the people. Therefore China's air campaign should focus on military targets and select leadership only, no attacks with the intent of clearing out the Japanese civilian population.
Only if Japan successfully mass mobilises and it's clear they will fight to the last person for the sake of the US invasion operation should China switch to annihilation tactics.
I have in the past written about the possibility to adopt Russian ZVO recruitment methods to sustain a large, fully voluntary force. If the goal is full counterinvasion of Japan, it will be necessary to massively increase the amounts of boots on the ground. Rather than using the mobilisation of drafted soldiers, it is interesting to use the ZVO methods to create an independent "territorial defense" (more like territorial offense or Wagner) that will be much cheaper to equip than the proper PLAGF, employ foreigners and even say North Koreans, and be paid mainly with sign up bonuses, plunder and bounties.
Basically, the PLAGF will conduct difficult and decisive battles, while the 2nd line mercenary army will police occupied territory and engage in Ukrainian style fpv supported meat assaults against already severely weakened JSDF ground units.
The reason is twofold:
1. to avoid sending drafted soldiers.
2. to with full potential unleash China's civilian side industry and "small" weapons entrepreneurs, which can create massive amounts of equipment, but whose quality and standardization often will not meet PLA standards. Think turtle tanks, robodogs with flamethrowers etc.
I'll estimate it's possible to get 1-3 million such 2nd line infantry on a fairly short notice, which will then be shipped to Japan with China's massive merchant marine fleet.
