PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Temstar said:

I expected those cracks to form but what I didn't expect was for a former diehard DPP gym bro to spear head it.
I bet Julian Kuo has mixed feelings about this development.

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A spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council has criticized the Democratic Progressive Party authorities saying they have sold out the vital interests of Taiwan's people. In serving and pleasing the U.S., the DPP has paid a huge ransom equivalent to half of Taiwan's annual GDP, the spokesperson said. The people and businesses in Taiwan have been very disappointed in the face of the U.S.'s bullying and imposition of tariffs, the spokesperson added. The U.S. slapped a 20-percent "reciprocal tariff" on Taiwan – higher than the 15-percent rate on Japan and South Korea.

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According to media reports in Taiwan, several recent public opinion polls on the island show that Lai Ching-te, the Taiwan leader, has seen a significant drop in approval ratings for his policies, reaching a new low since he assumed office in May last year. Both dissatisfaction and distrust towards him have now exceeded half of the population. In response, the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council stated that people in Taiwan can clearly see what Lai has actually accomplished.

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cft4201 said:

In my belief, the possibility of armed reunification due to recent developments within Taiwan is actually decreasing. The DPP is obviously afraid of the Taiwan People's Party and the KMT and tried to knock down their influence with the election recall campaign that failed spectacularly, and instead, it backfired massively on the DPP. Their supporters are now fewer and fewer especially after failed disaster relief in Tainan.

Also notice how official statements by the Chinese government regarding Taiwan still refer to "separatist forces within Taiwan" and mainly the DPP as being the troublemakers. It's unsure what will happen with the Taiwan People's Party (but they are Pan-Blue leaning) but the KMT recognizes the 1992 consensus which is the basic requirement that needs to be met for dialogue between the PRC and Taiwan.

In addition, while the official narrative by the DPP views the PRC in a very negative light, the truth is that the population within Taiwan does a ton of business within the mainland.

And of course, the PRC would want prefer the easier option. The PRC can unquestionably take Taiwan by military force though at the same time, we need to acknowledge that there will definitely be a cost in regards to losing men, equipment, and also make the job of foreign affairs difficult.

In addition, I think the latest incident regarding 164 and the CCG in the SCS makes it apparent that a not-so-insignificant portion of the Chinese population is not mentally prepared for sustaining potential losses. There are a ton of comments on social media. Though I think that this is something that definitely needs to be addressed so that if one day, conflict does occur, there will not be overwhelming negative fake news or doomer opinions spreading.

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