PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Attacking civilians works well if you’re angling for genocide/destruction of civilian populace.

WW2 showed that terrorbombing for morale Isn’t effective against conventional opponents. Subsequent COIN shows that it doesn’t win hearts and minds.

Russia’s approach is sensible. Morale at the front is at an all time low. Everyone knows that not fighting is an option. Contrast Gaza, where despite it being uninhabitable, you’ve still got people placing explosives on enemy tanks by hand.

War against civilians forces civilians to fight back.

Guys, don't advocate for attacking civilians lmao

I see this kind of talk all over the Chinese internet and I don't see how it helps the cause at all.

It's 2024, the humanitarian side of war must be considered. That's just how it is. Even if you're not coming at it from a morality perspective, in this modern age the costs likely outweigh the benefits.

And if it doesn't, either way, leave it up to the PLA to decide. I do not see this as an angle you and I should openly discuss

Miyayaya said:

Guys, don't advocate for attacking civilians lmao

I see this kind of talk all over the Chinese internet and I don't see how it helps the cause at all.

It's 2024, the humanitarian side of war must be considered. That's just how it is. Even if you're not coming at it from a morality perspective, in this modern age the costs likely outweigh the benefits.

And if it doesn't, either way, leave it up to the PLA to decide. I do not see this as an angle you and I should openly discuss

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Discussion here is useless, as prior history of PLA clearly shows they won't attack civilians.

(at most, some civilians might get caught in crossfire, such as military vehicles and command centers being targeted in cities, or maybe some attacks on power infrastructure and the likes, although this part really isn't guaranteed to happen. Probably smaller scale attacks or sabotage can take care of this part).

Advocating for direct attacks upon civilian populations is indeed beyond the pale and out of bounds for this forum.

Civilian casualties in a conflict secondary to collateral damage, misfire, or due to infrastructure damage or targeting is something else, but deliberately targeting civilian populaces is very much out of bounds here.

Don't make me write it in moderator red folks.

Luke Warmwar said:

Attacking civilians works well if you’re angling for genocide/destruction of civilian populace.

WW2 showed that terrorbombing for morale Isn’t effective against conventional opponents. Subsequent COIN shows that it doesn’t win hearts and minds.

Russia’s approach is sensible. Morale at the front is at an all time low. Everyone knows that not fighting is an option. Contrast Gaza, where despite it being uninhabitable, you’ve still got people placing explosives on enemy tanks by hand.

War against civilians forces civilians to fight back.

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im not talking about actively target civilian , im talking about care too much about "avoid civilian collateral damage" lead to so many set back , miss fortune just like russia did

the reality is US and their allied gang alway exploit this issue for their own military benefit : buy time , spy , sabotage , encorage their proxy using civilian mean to help military effort under propagranda shield such as ukraine contanstly using civilian building , vehicles to storage military vehicles , weapon + ammo , transport troops , resupply , hide and attack ...etc
and when they got hit , the massive propagranda network all jump in to defense them + cry about warcrime .

in taiwan case : everyone already know US/west/taiwan constantly beat the semiconductor silicon shield drum , the value of helping taiwan ...etc toward their own citizen

and china also already know in no way they can get their hand on intact semiconductor industry after the war because US/taiwan will destroy it in less than 30s after first new they gonna lose

so there are reason to not destroy it first unless bejing want to massive increase the difficulty level of the campaign ...that is stupid : real war isn't video game you don't looking for tryhard challenge, you looking for cheat code easy mode

taiwan without semiconductor industry value will become way less "worth" to protect and go to war with china in the eyes of both west/US/korea/japan grovernment and their own citizen decades brainwashed by that idea

and last : do i need to remind how "democratic system" need citizen will support way more than "non-democratic" ?

votran said:

im not talking about actively target civilian , im talking about care too much about "avoid civilian collateral damage" lead to so many set back , miss fortune just like russia did

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But what setbacks did Russia get from it?

The Ukraine war is a huge campaign, similar in size to the Vietnam war. Russian bombers and missiles wouldn't fly for free if they just tried to maximally kill Ukrainian civilians either. US tried this tactic in the Vietnam war and not only lost territory but also 10 000+ aircraft/helicopters.

About semiconductor industry, China cannot let it's crucial tech/industry fall into American hands, so it should blow it all up if it cannot secure the areas. I think it is a common sense tactic that China will seek to starve US from semiconductors to halt the US war machine. War with China means no more Chinese semis, and China can also exert maximum pressure to prevent Korean/Japanese semis.

Index said:

But what setbacks did Russia get from it?

The Ukraine war is a huge campaign, similar in size to the Vietnam war. Russian bombers and missiles wouldn't fly for free if they just tried to maximally kill Ukrainian civilians either. US tried this tactic in the Vietnam war and not only lost territory but also 10 000+ aircraft/helicopters.

About semiconductor industry, China cannot let it's crucial tech/industry fall into American hands, so it should blow it all up if it cannot secure the areas. I think it is a common sense tactic that China will seek to starve US from semiconductors to halt the US war machine. War with China means no more Chinese semis, and China can also exert maximum pressure to prevent Korean/Japanese semis.

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this is the main problem , by your mean china should only destroy it much later in the war when there no other option . that is a mistake
because at that point the semiconductor value of taiwan already did the job it was supposed to do
"convinced US/west/allied gang citizen support the idea "go to war with china to save taiwan"

for big guy nation/allied "face saving" matter alot once direct war start there are no chicken out otherwise entire western lead world idea and system will collapse

the point of destroy TSMC first is to prevent US/west/allied gang grovernment convinced their own citizen/common folk support the idea "let go to war with china" in the first place

to clear your understand here is the explain : for decades US/west and their allied gang have 2 reason to "protect" taiwan

1/ the main one : contain china and her navy/nuke sub inside first island chain

2/ side task : protect taiwan semiconductor industry value

the problem of the 1st and main reason is : it quite hard to sell/propagranda toward their own normal common folk , because the consequence of failure sound less likely to effect common folk typical normal life

but the side task one is way easier and way much nicer toward common folk ears and it being drum up constantly for decades now

like : "we must go to war with china to save tawain , to save their TSMC , otherwise if those commie get their hand on it , say good bye to your smart phone , your personal privacy , internet freedom , smart car , PC , tablet , gaming console , even coffee maker and washing machines...etc

so yeah without the "semiconductor value of taiwan" present in the first place . it very hard to ask US/west/allied gang "democracy loving" common citizen to support the idea "let begin ww3 and fight with china for taiwan"

votran said:

this is the main problem , by your mean china should only destroy it much later in the war when there no other option . that is a mistake
because at that point the semiconductor value of taiwan already did the job it was supposed to do
"convinced US/west/allied gang citizen support the idea "go to war with china to save taiwan"

for big guy nation/allied "face saving" matter alot once direct war start there are no chicken out otherwise entire western lead world idea and system will collapse

the point of destroy TSMC first is to prevent US/west/allied gang grovernment convinced their own citizen/common folk support the idea "let go to war with china" in the first place

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This is unnecessary. The moment shooting starts, all those fabs are as good as destroyed. Lithography machines are extremely delicate and fragile; without constant power and inputs, their components degrade and become useless.

votran said:

this is the main problem , by your mean china should only destroy it much later in the war when there no other option . that is a mistake
because at that point the semiconductor value of taiwan already did the job it was supposed to do
"convinced US/west/allied gang citizen support the idea "go to war with china to save taiwan"

for big guy nation/allied "face saving" matter alot once direct war start there are no chicken out otherwise entire western lead world idea and system will collapse

the point of destroy TSMC first is to prevent US/west/allied gang grovernment convinced their own citizen/common folk support the idea "let go to war with china" in the first place

Click to expand...

Maybe we want the nations sick in the head enough to support US territorial aggression to reveal themselves so China can legally occupy them or send them back to the stone age?

At the very least, China wouldn't be scared of a few other countries joining in. Nobody has much significant power aside from US.

China cannot respond to an attack on Taiwan just by defending itself, otherwise, what's to stop a new coalition of Western aligned nations from starting new wars over Taiwan or other regions in the future? It needs to make a buffer zone and make an example beyond the buffer zone.