PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

GZDRefugee said:

This is unnecessary. The moment shooting starts, all those fabs are as good as destroyed. Lithography machines are extremely delicate and fragile; without constant power and inputs, their components degrade and become useless.

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the point is to not give US/west and their allied gang the easy convinced reason to encorage their normal citizen support starting ww3 , war with china in the first place

if you let direct shooting between china and US/west happen then the TSMC shield already did it job well , destroy it or not after that moment doesn't matter

Index said:

Maybe we want the nations sick in the head enough to support US territorial aggression to reveal themselves so China can legally occupy them or send them back to the stone age?

At the very least, China wouldn't be scared of a few other countries joining in. Nobody has much significant power aside from US.

China cannot respond to an attack on Taiwan just by defending itself, otherwise, what's to stop a new coalition of Western aligned nations from starting new wars over Taiwan or other regions in the future? It needs to make a buffer zone and make an example beyond the buffer zone.

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i said again : real war isn't playing video game , you never should looking for harder difficulty level challenge

you looking for easy mode cheat code . why did you think US and the west sanction iraq for decades to degrade their military force so much before starting the war ?

instead of honorable fighting them without dirty trick ?

votran said:

the point is to not give US/west and their allied gang the easy convinced reason to encorage their normal citizen support starting ww3 , war with china in the first place

if you let direct shooting between china and US/west happen then the TSMC shield already did it job well , destroy it or not after that moment doesn't matter

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This is the US and Americans we're talking about. They will believe whatever the government wants them to believe. See Gulf Wars for precedence. The western populace's consent to kill Chinese has already been manufactured.

votran said:

i said again : real war isn't playing video game , you never should looking for harder difficulty level challenge

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China's war isn't in barely holding on its own territory the civil war, but in preventing all future western aggression.

By your logic, USSR shouldn't have gone past the initial Barbarossa borders because they shouldn't look for a "harder difficulty level challenge"?

votran said:

you looking for easy mode cheat code . why did you think US and the west sanction iraq for decades to degrade their military force so much before starting the war ?

instead of honorable fighting them without dirty trick ?

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Which is why China is sanctioning and overall engaged in geopolitical soft war against the head of the snake US, to reduce their pace of military advancement and soften up their self reliance capabilities.

I will reiterate on my position that China cannot respond with an US led invasion on Taiwan by only repelling the invasion and preserving prewar borders. It must take the chance to pursue and inflict maximum damage on aggressor nations, so they can't threaten China again.

And given that some aggressor nations such as Phillippines barely have any military power, there is no reason for China to not press forward once the US invasion forces are destroyed.

votran said:

the point is to not give US/west and their allied gang the easy convinced reason to encorage their normal citizen support starting ww3 , war with china in the first place

if you let direct shooting between china and US/west happen then the TSMC shield already did it job well , destroy it or not after that moment doesn't matter

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You can only "save TSMC" if PRC goes to war first. Why would PRC do this?
The price paid in sanctions/war costs/human costs etc. would be far more efficiently spent on R&D.

The only possibility is if ROC administration declares independence, but that is difficult due to their own local rules. If the head of government decides to pursue it unilaterally, it would be illegal and possibly cause local chaos first.

Index said:

And given that some aggressor nations such as Phillippines barely have any military power, there is no reason for China to not press forward once the US invasion forces are destroyed.

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I agree, but ideally it would be even better to make it very clear to them before any war that all of the Philippines will be bombed and potentially occupied if they offer the US bases to use to attack China. So you deter them from getting involved in the first place.

If you can deter Japan as well, the US will never be in any position to launch a war against China.

There will be plenty of potential for internal saboteurs during a Taiwan contingency. Taiwan and some countries have been training militants for a long time and will be activating them when hostilities break out.

Activities could include anything from anti war demonstrations to internal spies sabotaging power, water, communication, etc to internally launched FPV drone attacks and recon/target designation.

The time to clear out saboteurs is before they are activated.

My view is that by the time the PLA lands and can sustain a supply line across the strait, the war is more or less won. Of course, PLA should prepare and is preparing for urban warfare, but I see the odds of that happening being low.

I think a more relevant discussion would be how the humanitarian side affects (along with any international considerations) how a blockade is implemented, as I see a semi long blockade being a necessity in a Taiwan contingency.

Taiwan, unlike Ukraine, is an island. And thus the vast majority of people will not escape once the fighting breaks out.

Minm said:

I agree, but ideally it would be even better to make it very clear to them before any war that all of the Philippines will be bombed and potentially occupied if they offer the US bases to use to attack China. So you deter them from getting involved in the first place.

If you can deter Japan as well, the US will never be in any position to launch a war against China.

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Occupy the Philippines? That seems unrealistic and unnecessary, just sink all their ships, destroy their missiles and planes, and take back all the shoals and islands they have occupied in the SCS.

FairAndUnbiased said:

There will be plenty of potential for internal saboteurs during a Taiwan contingency. Taiwan and some countries have been training militants for a long time and will be activating them when hostilities break out.

Activities could include anything from anti war demonstrations to internal spies sabotaging power, water, communication, etc to internally launched FPV drone attacks and recon/target designation.

The time to clear out saboteurs is before they are activated.

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You mean inside Taiwan? Because the MSS grossly overmatches anyone inside the mainland, it is incredibly unlikely anyone can infiltrate.

I think the first few weeks might be a war of spies without official civil war restart. Blockade and civilian evacuation is in place by PLA, but most fighting is between government covert agents/militia, ROCA and foreign covert agents/militia. Theres no real way for China to entirely prevent foreign agents from rising up inside Taiwan, but they can provide both direct fire support against them for the mainland's own agents and indirect intelligence support.

The situation of 10000s bombs falling per day will only happen if the government's collected forces together with a blockade and strategic support strikes can't overcome the KMT. Or if US launches a full scale invasion.