PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

zhangjim

Junior Member
Registered Member
Now even the Wanwanese have their own exclusive "fifth column" numbered in the 100s of 1000s??


Speaking of which, why does that Puma Shen guy looks like the Asian version of a certain guy who thinks that India >>> China not long ago?
This is just an excuse for a purge and witch hunt by the DPP. They have succeeded in creating a stifling social environment where anyone who claims to love China will be met with severe public opinion violence and even political persecution.
 

ismellcopium

Junior Member
Registered Member
Where will the US launch those “cheap” (which means short range) drones from?
My exact thought whenever I read one of these latest fad drone swarm type DoD wet dreams lol. How specifically is it gonna work operationally if China has swept away US naval platforms within 1IC & all their bases are out of commission.

Apparently that Anduril douche & his ilk are just so good at grifting or something nobody even thinks about this part.
 

lcloo

Captain
Actually US can send swarm of drones from nearest Ryukyu island, exmple from Yonaguni island. But if they do that military bases on Ryukyu islands would be fair game for China's rocket force (with non-nuclear tip missiles). US forces will have to retreat to Japan proper and Guam.
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Actually US can send swarm of drones from nearest Ryukyu island, exmple from Yonaguni island. But if they do that military bases on Ryukyu islands would be fair game for China's rocket force (with non-nuclear tip missiles). US forces will have to retreat to Japan proper and Guam.
Of course they can, if PLA allow American forces to gather there without striking them first.
 

tamsen_ikard

Junior Member
Registered Member
Actually US can send swarm of drones from nearest Ryukyu island, exmple from Yonaguni island. But if they do that military bases on Ryukyu islands would be fair game for China's rocket force (with non-nuclear tip missiles). US forces will have to retreat to Japan proper and Guam.
And you expect PLA just sit around and not Strike US all over Japan? If US and China fights and Japan allows US to use its soil during the war, I expect China to attack japan with full force. Nothing less than a complete surrender of japan with PLA presence in Tokyo will suffice.

If there is a potential war between US and China coming. And Japan intends to stay out, I expect Japan to formally eject all US forces out before it happens.
 

lcloo

Captain
And you expect PLA just sit around and not Strike US all over Japan? If US and China fights and Japan allows US to use its soil during the war, I expect China to attack japan with full force. Nothing less than a complete surrender of japan with PLA presence in Tokyo will suffice.

If there is a potential war between US and China coming. And Japan intends to stay out, I expect Japan to formally eject all US forces out before it happens.
Japan cannot eject US forces out because US is their master. Japan has to do what they master told them and the hawks in Japan are more than happy to follow US. WHy would China not strike US all over Japan? Just because I didn't write that down?
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
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thoughts? feasibility for the US? good news bad news for China?
Nice plan... for China, the only country that can mass-manufacture high quality cost-effective drones. Shoot down an American drone, US checks the bill --> "OK yeah that cost as much as a Raptor."

Also, the plan aims to use drones to buy time for the US to respond, making an initial direct invasion costly and difficult. But that's not how China would approach it because without substantially pounding ROC's defenses, the invasion would not begin yet anyway so China would actually use that time to clear the US drones as well. It would use up more Chinese ammo but it wouldn't even necessarily buy the US more time.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Nice plan... for China, the only country that can mass-manufacture high quality cost-effective drones. Shoot down an American drone, US checks the bill --> "OK yeah that cost as much as a Raptor."

Also, the plan aims to use drones to buy time for the US to respond, making an initial direct invasion costly and difficult. But that's not how China would approach it because without substantially pounding ROC's defenses, the invasion would not begin yet anyway so China would actually use that time to clear the US drones as well. It would use up more Chinese ammo but it wouldn't even necessarily buy the US more time.

Yes.

If the US has the ability to turn the Taiwan Straits into a "hellscape", it also means that China would control the airspace above all of Taiwan and could turn the land below into a "hellscape" as well.

Chinese drones and munitions are significantly cheaper, plus the Chinese mainland is just next door so land-based trucks have a secure enough operating location.

Taiwan would be looking at a situation where China has near real-time surveillance and targeting over all of Taiwan, and hitting any military or dual-use target, potentially down to individual soldiers like we see in Ukraine. Electricity and oil would be gone after a few days. The airports and seaports would be out of action as well. Taiwan would likely be crippled after just 2 weeks.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
Imagine what if tens of thoudands of the PRC's fifth column in Taiwan have joined the ROC's military services and ready to change side when AR started. And this is not without precedence as there were many occurences of KMT forces changed side during the Chinese Civil war.
If China managed to coordinate them once AR began, these thousands of ROC fifth columnists could potentially be their little green men. This is one of all the possibilities that the US realistically faces.

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ismellcopium

Junior Member
Registered Member
Actually US can send swarm of drones from nearest Ryukyu island, exmple from Yonaguni island. But if they do that military bases on Ryukyu islands would be fair game for China's rocket force (with non-nuclear tip missiles). US forces will have to retreat to Japan proper and Guam.
Tbh it's hard for me to even see how they'd be able to freely retreat between those islands with the level of air & sea control the PLA will have.
 
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