PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

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Index

Senior Member
Registered Member
manqiangrexue said:
It's not about having the power to eject the US. It's about whether or not it sets off alarm bells in DC. If some small unimportant country in Africa wants to end military cooperation with the US, the US will follow the law because it doesn't matter. If a country like Japan, Korea, or Saudi Arabia signals that it wishes to leave the US orbit and enter China's orbit, that will set off huge alams bells in DC. The terms, "concerned about the democratic situation" will start to pop up in US media regarding that country and the US will resort to sanctions, assassinations, color revolutions, election-rigging, etc... to stop it from happening.

To the US government, when the cards are stacked and the stakes are high, a "sovereign government" is one that sides with America and a "tryanny that no longer represents the will of the people" is one that opts to leave America's orbit (particularly towards China's). America has absolutely no respect at all for Japan or Korea; they might be powerful countries compared to the global average but they're small potatoes compared to the US. They're either going to stay America's stooges or they become America's enemies and they can't afford to become America's enemies.

Mohamed Bin Salman is sick of America's shit; but he's still not going to join BRICS and he's still going to play along with the Petro dollar. He can sign more deals with China because that's salami slicing that the US can tolerate but if he plays power moves to China's tune like ending the Petro dollar and joining BRICs, the US will make him one offer behind closed doors that he can't refuse and that's to know his place or end up like Saddam Hussein.
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The thing is that if US asks Japan to directly fight in an attack on China, this is tantamount to asking all of Japan to give up everything they own and die. It's a very high ask.

When everything is fine, it's easy to be anti China and pro US when it doesn't have any price. It's like how there are billions of Christians, but how many actually lay down their possessions to follow Jesus? Actually scratch that, how many even pay their tenth?

There is no such thing as a real all weather ally, it's all about costs and benefits. What do you think Belarus would have done in the Ukraine war if Ukraine was 3 times larger than Russia, had air superiority, ability to hunt down the whole Belarusian air defense network within a month, can put thousands of ch5 style drones above Belarusian cities and have tens of thousands of rockets pointed at Minsk? Think they would still lend out bases to the Russians?

I don't fully know if Korea and Japan can afford being sanctioned and assassinated by US, but I know for sure that they cannot survive a war of aggression on China.

Don't forget that as of today, Japan and Korea are not China's enemies, if they were, they would be dealing with much larger problems.
 
T

tygyg1111

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tamsen_ikard said:
Completely ignores fundamental change in South Korean mindset in the last couple of years. Anti-Incumbency is an obvious reaction in SK which switches between the two parties, There have also been short term factors like economic stagnation that is still ongoing.

Long term trends are also in play. South Koreans have also become extremely anti-China due to China's rise, Chinese competition into high-tech sectors that directly caused loss of market share for korean companies, increased korean superiority complex due to the rise of korean media in the west.

All the hanbok, Kimchi controversies are a pattern that shows how anti-China korea has become in the last few years. There is also the rise of frustrated korean men who are anti-feminism and voted heaviliy for the right-wing president.


US has absolutely no direct influence in South Korean Media. Yes, you can say South Korea have been influenced by the heavy anti-China shift in the entire west. But its because South Koreans have deep western worship and follow the west in everything, not because of some deliberate US influence operation inside South Korea.


Japan has never stopped being anti-China since Abe came to power. I would argue Japan is actually influencing US to be more anti-China than the other around. DPP Taiwanese, Falun Gong and Hong Kongers have also had a huge influence in the current anti-China bend in the US. People think US is all powerful, no its not. its also being influenced by Anti-China forces in Asia.
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Without US influence (esp. in getting a pliant leader elected), most of the anti-China movements in these countries (with the exception of Japan) would at best be lukewarm. Leadership plays a big role - Phillipines under Duterte vs Marcos, SK under Moon vs Yoon.

Yoon was a non-starter from the get go, but got a huge social media boost a few weeks prior to the election and ended up winning.

While SK has seen nationalism and anti-China sentiments increase as a result of competition and their improved standing in the world, it would not be at today's level without US interference and a US plant like Yoon guiding policy.
 
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Z

zhangjim

Junior Member
Registered Member
tygyg1111 said:
Sadly, I believe it will take the expulsion of the US by China's hand to return JP and SK to sanity.

An organic public opinion change of the scale needed to lead SK and JP to expel US forces would need to be backed by a proportionally scaled hard guarantee by China.
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tygyg1111 said:
It is true that SK has seen nationalism and anti-China sentiments increase as a result of competition and their improved standing in the world, however if left on their own a nobody like Yoon would never have been elected.
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I cannot evaluate Japan, but South Korea's demands are too difficult to meet. Providing security protection alone is not enough, as only the United States can fulfill South Korea's ambition to become the sole leader in East Asia.

At present, driven by fervent nationalism, South Korea's territorial demands are too huge, which makes them inevitably choose to cooperate with the United States. After all, annexing North Korea and Northeast China is not an easy task, but this is their wish.
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Last year, South Korea still supported Manchukuo, although it seemed like a joke, it was a very direct hostile behavior.

The recent unpleasant dispute over pandas has already shown their arrogant attitude towards China, and it is impossible for these arrogant people to bow down and accept the protection of their potential enemies.
Such a country is actually much more troublesome than the Philippines. We can see that South Korea is willing to provide weapons (planes and warships) to the Philippines to intervene in regional conflicts.
So, South Korea will inevitably choose to intervene in cross-strait issues, although their attitude is not as clear as Japan's, it is clear that they are more loyal to the United States.
 
C

Chevalier

Captain
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
This is absolutely not true, Japan & Korea can easily eject US out completely anytime they want. If a country like Philippines could eject US forces in 90s when they were extremely poor, if countries in Africa like Mali or Niger could Eject US out now, of course Japan can do it at any time. No US government can deny a direct order from a sovereign government to get out of its soil. Let alone a powerful country like Japan or Korea.

Japan WANTS US to stay in Japan because of their fear of China. That's the only reason Japan is so pro-US. Japan is extremely anti-China while being extremely Western Worshipping country. That's the reason most Anime these days imagine a European Fantasy when they "Isekai" into a fantasy world. They consider European/White/American culture to be superior. You see this kind of thinking ingrained into the Psyche Japanese, Koreans, Taiwanese, Hong Kongers, philippines. All the places that got heavily influenced by the west or got rich by trading and adopting western customs has become western worshippers to the extreme. There is also a fear of China's rise fueled by their superiority complex over the Chinese.

Now whether Japan remains a suicidal country bent on taking China down regardless of how costly it is for them, or becomes pragmatic and accepts Chinese dominance of Asia is the question that will dominate Asian Geopolitics. If they r pragmatic, then slowly they will realize staying with the US is not only futile but actually counter-productive. You see this thinking already among liberals in South Korea for example and also Duterte faction in the Philippines. If Japan sees this light, then they will slowly become pro-China or Neutral over time. Eventually, they will eject US out. If not, then a big war with Japan is inevitable in the future.
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The Iraqi government publicly and privately and officially requested the U.S. to leave Iraq and leave its bases, but the U.S. ignored them. The underlying law that anglos follow is Hobbesian. It will require violence to remove the anglos from Asia.
 
I

Index

Senior Member
Registered Member
zhangjim said:
I cannot evaluate Japan, but South Korea's demands are too difficult to meet. Providing security protection alone is not enough, as only the United States can fulfill South Korea's ambition to become the sole leader in East Asia.

At present, driven by fervent nationalism, South Korea's territorial demands are too huge, which makes them inevitably choose to cooperate with the United States. After all, annexing North Korea and Northeast China is not an easy task, but this is their wish.
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Last year, South Korea still supported Manchukuo, although it seemed like a joke, it was a very direct hostile behavior.

The recent unpleasant dispute over pandas has already shown their arrogant attitude towards China, and it is impossible for these arrogant people to bow down and accept the protection of their potential enemies.
Such a country is actually much more troublesome than the Philippines. We can see that South Korea is willing to provide weapons (planes and warships) to the Philippines to intervene in regional conflicts.
So, South Korea will inevitably choose to intervene in cross-strait issues, although their attitude is not as clear as Japan's, it is clear that they are more loyal to the United States.
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South Korea is the most likely to bend because their destruction is very tangibly felt, overall the risk of a SK attack on China is unlikely.

But if anything, it will be NK purposefully agitating in order to justify China giving them back the southern half. If US invades China, NK would be one of the major winners, because it can finally justify all the military buildup and austerity if it unifies with the south. So NK would work on increasing escalation, especially in roping in a Chinese counterattack on SK.

If SK doesn't vacate US bases in the event of an US attack, chances are, NK will simply strike the SK US bases first in the name of the MDT.
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
tamsen_ikard said:
Japan & Korea are on a completely different level of sophistication compared to Saudi Arabia. Saudi state is essentially a house of cards with most citizens not well educated and living off state subsidies from oil money. Japan & Korea are true nation states with strong identity, highly well educated population, technology and strong national politics. Saudi Arabia is tiny in population with more than 70% of people being migrant workers from poor countries, they r not even saudi citizens and will never be.

US can probably easily foment a rebellion in Saudi Arabia against the monarchy. But in Japan & Korea, if there foreign policy changes in terms of US China policy, it will be fundamental change in people's thinking. No propaganda will change that. Moreover, Korea and Japan have a very insulated society with their own media in their very own languages, US have zero influence on that.

Any country with reasonable level of GDP per capita and population size will be complete impervious to US or any western influence operations. If there are changes in foreign policy in those countries, it will be because the population or the elites or both have changed their minds.

If Korea or Japan ever becomes pro-China, it will be a fundamental change in the mindset of the people in those countries. I would say, Korea and Japanese identity itself might be formed from being anti-China. It will take years of slow change in their economy, foreign interaction and so on to change their outlook. Or it could change due to a massive war where China dominates or conquers them outright. Anyways, it will not be easy that's for sure.
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America has different ways to deal with different countries. For a country like Saudi Arabia, you got it. For countries like Japan and SK, they turn them into puppets like Germany. They have many agents inside, local politicians paid American money to always lobby in favor of the US. They threaten sanctions and have these puppets spread fear of these sanctions. They pay organizations to create media content that is pro-USA and anti-China and to paint any local politicians leaning towards China as bad people one way or another. Then if there is still a strong anti-US pro-China politician rising to power, they pick a radical pro-US politician and do everything to bolster him up to and including election rigging. Societies like Japan, Korea and Germany will fall to this if they make strong steps to exit America's orbit. They don't need to be color-revolutioned like less educated societies.
Index said:
The thing is that if US asks Japan to directly fight in an attack on China, this is tantamount to asking all of Japan to give up everything they own and die. It's a very high ask.

When everything is fine, it's easy to be anti China and pro US when it doesn't have any price. It's like how there are billions of Christians, but how many actually lay down their possessions to follow Jesus? Actually scratch that, how many even pay their tenth?

There is no such thing as a real all weather ally, it's all about costs and benefits. What do you think Belarus would have done in the Ukraine war if Ukraine was 3 times larger than Russia, had air superiority, ability to hunt down the whole Belarusian air defense network within a month, can put thousands of ch5 style drones above Belarusian cities and have tens of thousands of rockets pointed at Minsk? Think they would still lend out bases to the Russians?

I don't fully know if Korea and Japan can afford being sanctioned and assassinated by US, but I know for sure that they cannot survive a war of aggression on China.

Don't forget that as of today, Japan and Korea are not China's enemies, if they were, they would be dealing with much larger problems.
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I agree. It's all about balance of fear. Do they fear more to be constantly swiped at by the US or do they fear more to be wrecked by China in a war? Right now, the latter isn't close to happening so the former fear will be dominant. But that could change if things get heated (there is no guarantee that they will fight when ordered) and China's job is to convince them everyday that the latter is much much worse than the former.
 
FriedRiceNSpice

FriedRiceNSpice

Captain
tamsen_ikard said:
Japan & Korea are on a completely different level of sophistication compared to Saudi Arabia. Saudi state is essentially a house of cards with most citizens not well educated and living off state subsidies from oil money. Japan & Korea are true nation states with strong identity, highly well educated population, technology and strong national politics. Saudi Arabia is tiny in population with more than 70% of people being migrant workers from poor countries, they r not even saudi citizens and will never be.
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But but but are you underestimating the omnipotence of Arabic soft power? Japan and Korea only exist because they have roles to play in the Arabic system, and the real deals behind closed doors are being down in Russian resorts discussing the formation of New Europe and the upcoming mass migration to new megacities being planned in the Russian Far East. Everything that happens is due to Arabic soft power willing it to happen!!!
 
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SinoaTerrenum

New Member
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
Japan & Korea are on a completely different level of sophistication compared to Saudi Arabia. Saudi state is essentially a house of cards with most citizens not well educated and living off state subsidies from oil money. Japan & Korea are true nation states with strong identity, highly well educated population, technology and strong national politics. Saudi Arabia is tiny in population with more than 70% of people being migrant workers from poor countries, they r not even saudi citizens and will never be.

US can probably easily foment a rebellion in Saudi Arabia against the monarchy. But in Japan & Korea, if there foreign policy changes in terms of US China policy, it will be fundamental change in people's thinking. No propaganda will change that. Moreover, Korea and Japan have a very insulated society with their own media in their very own languages, US have zero influence on that.

Any country with reasonable level of GDP per capita and population size will be complete impervious to US or any western influence operations. If there are changes in foreign policy in those countries, it will be because the population or the elites or both have changed their minds.

If Korea or Japan ever becomes pro-China, it will be a fundamental change in the mindset of the people in those countries. I would say, Korea and Japanese identity itself might be formed from being anti-China. It will take years of slow change in their economy, foreign interaction and so on to change their outlook. Or it could change due to a massive war where China dominates or conquers them outright. Anyways, it will not be easy that's for sure.
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You grossly overestimate the independent thinking of the JP/KR masses, especially with a non-independent media. Soft needs to absolutely backed by hard power that's deployed - China arguably has the industrial hard power of a pre-WW2 US but until it goes into full war mode countries who drank 50 years of kool-aid aren't going to acknowledge that hard power. War is inevitable, just depends on what form.
 
Sinnavuuty

Sinnavuuty

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SinoaTerrenum said:
You grossly overestimate the independent thinking of the JP/KR masses, especially with a non-independent media. Soft needs to absolutely backed by hard power that's deployed - China arguably has the industrial hard power of a pre-WW2 US but until it goes into full war mode countries who drank 50 years of kool-aid aren't going to acknowledge that hard power. War is inevitable, just depends on what form.
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He seems fully convinced that China's global rise will be peaceful with countries in the Asian region gradually accepting this geostrategic leadership in Beijing's orbit, but this is something that is unlikely to happen in the real world, the US has a policy aimed at containing China in the same way it contained the Soviet Union by creating opposing blocs and alliances to isolate China.

As the military power gap narrows each year, the United States will be less able to rely on intervention to defend territory, manage a dangerous escalation, and deter China, the importance of ensuring that U.S. allies and partners in the region can confront Beijing militarily. Washington will have to provide guarantees to allies and partners, while encouraging them to make greater multilateral efforts to defend its hegemony in the Asian territorial area. The United States will pursue a multidimensional strategy of diplomatic engagement with China while countering the expansion of Chinese power across China's neighbors.
 
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