Another analysis offered from yet again American perspective but with a more nuanced approach. What's the rebuttal from you guys and what's your take on this?
In the first place, his presumption is based on American revanchist propaganda which seeks to rewrite China's borders. International law and national law alike are unanimous on the fact that China has the right/obligation to territorial defense.
Saying that China can invade Taiwan is bogus revanchist terminology. China can certainly invade US, Japan, Korea or any other country especially if that attacks China in Taiwan first, but the movement of troops inside China does not constitute invasion.
China's policy in Taiwan is based on non-violent negotiation, where the central government will attempt to seek compromise with armed KMT remnants, there are 2 conflicting goals behind the approach. The first being preserving peace inside China with minimal loss of life, the second being preserving national security.
If these goals are changed, China would change its approach to follow. If China could clear out all rebels with no/minimal civilian losses, they may decide to do it. Conversely, if China is attacked and suffers damage from rebel fighters and/or foreign invaders, Beijing will obviously defend itself.
So what's in store for the future? China will keep to negotiation approach, but they're not sleeping either. Besides just talking down the KMT into surrendering, China is also tacitly working to exfiltrate as many innocent civilians as possible back to the mainland. So at the point when enough Chinese are deemed safe from friendly fire, they might also move ahead with a raid.
Conversely, maintaining national security is the other overriding goal for China. Which means that if negotiations provide a temporary deal that better protects China, Beijing will be more hesitant to launch a raid, even if its assured that most civilians will be safe.
This through all hangs on a similar minded government staying in China. The current policy is very much based on China rolling a full dove lineup, but they've been reliably doing so for decades. On the other hand, as global tensions increase, doves will naturally lose power.
