Lol never gonna happen. And that's why I agree there should/will be simultaneous full hostilities & air/sea campaign against Japan in any contingency. The PLA just needs to ensure it has enough forces to prosecute that and also deal with ROK (which I also basically view as a preordained participant in the same vein, with USFK)/India/the Philippines at the same time, there shouldn't be any possibility of allied involvement that would become too much for the PLA to handle all at once. I think we're getting there, if not by a few years time.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
This is absolutely not true, Japan & Korea can easily eject US out completely anytime they want. If a country like Philippines could eject US forces in 90s when they were extremely poor, if countries in Africa like Mali or Niger could Eject US out now, of course Japan can do it at any time. No US government can deny a direct order from a sovereign government to get out of its soil. Let alone a powerful country like Japan or Korea.
Japan WANTS US to stay in Japan because of their fear of China. That's the only reason Japan is so pro-US. Japan is extremely anti-China while being extremely Western Worshipping country. That's the reason most Anime these days imagine a European Fantasy when they "Isekai" into a fantasy world. They consider European/White/American culture to be superior. You see this kind of thinking ingrained into the Psyche Japanese, Koreans, Taiwanese, Hong Kongers, philippines. All the places that got heavily influenced by the west or got rich by trading and adopting western customs has become western worshippers to the extreme. There is also a fear of China's rise fueled by their superiority complex over the Chinese.
Now whether Japan remains a suicidal country bent on taking China down regardless of how costly it is for them, or becomes pragmatic and accepts Chinese dominance of Asia is the question that will dominate Asian Geopolitics. If they r pragmatic, then slowly they will realize staying with the US is not only futile but actually counter-productive. You see this thinking already among liberals in South Korea for example and also Duterte faction in the Philippines. If Japan sees this light, then they will slowly become pro-China or Neutral over time. Eventually, they will eject US out. If not, then a big war with Japan is inevitable in the future.
Bad news for China if the bushings cost less than 90,000 USD.
I'm sorry to disappoint you, but this is something that is unlikely to happen. Not only is the Philippines becoming more hostile to China, bu than Japan itself, which it is likely that more countries will do the same, regardless of China dominating the geopolitical orbit of all of Asia.
Peaceful evolution of a country's outlook has happened many times in the past.
Mexico and US used to be bitter enemies, but US dominance and lack of support from other big powers have made Mexicans very US friendly and docile. Small cannot be hostile to their large neighbor if they have no external support. So, if Japan loses faith on US providing it enough support and Japan's economic stagnation continues to the point where China surpasses Japan in wealth and prosperity. Then sure, they can switch their thinking.
Europe used to look down on America as the backward place and never took them seriously. This was the case before 1940s. Now they worship US.
I am not saying this is what will happen, I'm saying this is a choice that Japan will have to make. Germany was made docile after fighting two wars. Japan could also need similar wars to finally make them pro-China. But a strong China and hostile Japan cannot co-exist. Either China will make Japan a friendly country, by force if necessary, or China will become weak after losing a war.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
It's not about having the power to eject the US. It's about whether or not it sets off alarm bells in DC. If some small unimportant country in Africa wants to end military cooperation with the US, the US will follow the law because it doesn't matter. If a country like Japan, Korea, or Saudi Arabia signals that it wishes to leave the US orbit and enter China's orbit, that will set off huge alams bells in DC. The terms, "concerned about the democratic situation" will start to pop up in US media regarding that country and the US will resort to sanctions, assassinations, color revolutions, election-rigging, etc... to stop it from happening.
To the US government, when the cards are stacked and the stakes are high, a "sovereign government" is one that sides with America and a "tryanny that no longer represents the will of the people" is one that opts to leave America's orbit (particularly towards China's). America has absolutely no respect at all for Japan or Korea; they might be powerful countries compared to the global average but they're small potatoes compared to the US. They're either going to stay America's stooges or they become America's enemies and they can't afford to become America's enemies.
Mohamed Bin Salman is sick of America's shit; but he's still not going to join BRICS and he's still going to play along with the Petro dollar. He can sign more deals with China because that's salami slicing that the US can tolerate but if he plays power moves to China's tune like ending the Petro dollar and joining BRICs, the US will make him one offer behind closed doors that he can't refuse and that's to know his place or end up like Saddam Hussein.
Chinese equivalent cost of production would still be only 1/10 of that hypothetical cost however.
Japan & Korea are on a completely different level of sophistication compared to Saudi Arabia. Saudi state is essentially a house of cards with most citizens not well educated and living off state subsidies from oil money. Japan & Korea are true nation states with strong identity, highly well educated population, technology and strong national politics. Saudi Arabia is tiny in population with more than 70% of people being migrant workers from poor countries, they r not even saudi citizens and will never be.
US can probably easily foment a rebellion in Saudi Arabia against the monarchy. But in Japan & Korea, if there foreign policy changes in terms of US China policy, it will be fundamental change in people's thinking. No propaganda will change that. Moreover, Korea and Japan have a very insulated society with their own media in their very own languages, US have zero influence on that.
Any country with reasonable level of GDP per capita and population size will be complete impervious to US or any western influence operations. If there are changes in foreign policy in those countries, it will be because the population or the elites or both have changed their minds.
If Korea or Japan ever becomes pro-China, it will be a fundamental change in the mindset of the people in those countries. I would say, Korea and Japanese identity itself might be formed from being anti-China. It will take years of slow change in their economy, foreign interaction and so on to change their outlook. Or it could change due to a massive war where China dominates or conquers them outright. Anyways, it will not be easy that's for sure.
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Any organic change in public opinion is highly susceptible. Yoon and Kishida's presidencies are a result of US influence operations. When you control a country's media public opinion becomes easy to manipulate. Under Moon Jae In, SK was reasonably pro China.
Failing a leadership change, all it takes is some stunt (e.g. getting a random right wing mayor to 'purchase' and nationalise Diaoyu islands) to spark a conflict and turn public opinion.
Sadly, I believe it will take the expulsion of the US by China's hand to return JP and SK to sanity.
An organic public opinion change of the scale needed to lead SK and JP to expel US forces would need to be backed by a proportionally scaled hard guarantee by China.
Completely ignores fundamental change in South Korean mindset in the last couple of years. Anti-Incumbency is an obvious reaction in SK which switches between the two parties, There have also been short term factors like economic stagnation that is still ongoing.
Long term trends are also in play. South Koreans have also become extremely anti-China due to China's rise, Chinese competition into high-tech sectors that directly caused loss of market share for korean companies, increased korean superiority complex due to the rise of korean media in the west.
All the hanbok, Kimchi controversies are a pattern that shows how anti-China korea has become in the last few years. There is also the rise of frustrated korean men who are anti-feminism and voted heaviliy for the right-wing president.
US has absolutely no direct influence in South Korean Media. Yes, you can say South Korea have been influenced by the heavy anti-China shift in the entire west. But its because South Koreans have deep western worship and follow the west in everything, not because of some deliberate US influence operation inside South Korea.
Japan has never stopped being anti-China since Abe came to power. I would argue Japan is actually influencing US to be more anti-China than the other around. DPP Taiwanese, Falun Gong and Hong Kongers have also had a huge influence in the current anti-China bend in the US. People think US is all powerful, no its not. its also being influenced by Anti-China forces in Asia.