PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
LMFAO. Not only do they have limp cannons but now they won’t even come out and enforce their “law” against mainland fishing boats within 1KM of shore.

View attachment 125898

I have a feeling that AR will end up being very anti-climatic, possibly even more so than Crimea.
First you get within 1km, then you accidentally land 1 or 2 coast guard officers, then you land some units, next thing you know PLA is touring the island while the US special forces units are watching them patrolling the road lol
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
LMFAO. Not only do they have limp cannons but now they won’t even come out and enforce their “law” against mainland fishing boats within 1KM of shore.

View attachment 125898

I have a feeling that AR will end up being very anti-climatic, possibly even more so than Crimea.
Another source:
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CCG video this week also showed them escorting a fishing ship:
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Guo Zhengliang seems to think if this issue is not resolved by early March then once the main fishing season resumes we will see a lot of Xiamen fishing ships around Kinmen protected by CCG and ignoring ROCCGA. I looked up the 2023 fishing ban and it seems to go from first of May till Auguest-September, depending on the type of commercial fishing. As far as I can tell commercial fishing is currently not banned at Xiamen but maybe there's some seasonal elements to it.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
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It is a coast guard vessel in question. Your own video say it is released by coast guard. The title is wrong. Your own evidence back me up coast guard gets harassed all the time, no escalation.
That may be but your logic is wrong. Nothing backs you up because evidence that coast guards attack each other is not evidence that coast guards don't attack the navies of other countries.
Try again.
OK
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2 Filipino Naval supply ships, one rammed, 1 water gunned. Coast guard ship also water gunned.
Entertained, amused, you name it. I don't know about you but I do not take drug to entertain myself. You do you.
If you don't take drugs, maybe you need to, prescription only! You can settle down and learn what an emotion is.
Yes, of course US coast guard can try to stop China, and vice versa. Ramming, water cannon, blockage. You are the one thought it was impossible cuz war!!!
For the 50th time, it is a prelude to a war that China wants to put off into the future.
At least we got this cleared since you linked a video showing coast guard being harassed.
No, you are confused again; that was a Filipino vessel that was NOT guarded by any US vessels.
The only difference China is the stronger side. That is why I am not concerned as it is "a drunk man fighting Mike Tyson".
Your attempt to debate me is the only drunk man trying to fight Mike Tyson. Your mind can't wrap around the concept of China not wanting a fight until it can win bloodlessly and costlessly. I never said China is weaker; I said it's not in China's interest to escalate when its power is rising and American power is waning relative to each other. And judging by how China handles itself with the US, I'm right.
If your imagined scenario of 6 American vessel bully 2 Chinese vessel happen, then quite frankly China deserves to be embarassed. A large quantity of US coast guard went near your shore miles away, and no detection what so ever? Then it get away before reinforcement show up?
6 US vessels against 2 Chinese? What? Go reread the paragraph you quoted and bolded. You're responding to things what weren't said because you can't even read and you're trying to debate...
Or worse, the entire 7th fleet (your example) showed up miles away and there was no preparation? That will not happen. If it does then China is so incompetent it should never entertain being a great power. I will delete my account right now.
You should delete your account for your own incompetence at reading comprehension; China's done nothing wrong. Preparing to engage the 7th fleet isn't about detecting them; it's about building up for decades preparing for war.
I am actually laughing right now. 7th fleet show up protecting a patrol boat? Sorry that is not a bait.
Uh, yeah. The patrol boat is guarding an ROC vessel. They were engaged by Chinese ships. The US vessel attempts to stop the Chinese vessels from boarding and seizing the ROC vessel. It is rammed and damaged in order to prevent it from doing its job forcing it to retreat. The US throws a tantrum; it's not about any patrol boats now; it's about American pride. Next up, Arleigh Burkes and perhaps a Ticonderoga class shows up. Now you've got the choice of ramming them or letting them go. If you let them go, there was no point; you got proven soft. If you attack them, now it's war. It's pretty sad I have to spell this out in such details for you. Most people know if you tussle with someone's ships, unless they're scared of you, it's going to escalate and you better be ready handle the full fight.
It is like putting your own head as bait in a bear trap.
Or a person without basic reading comprehension trying to debate me.
That aside, no, coast guard water fight dont lead to war. If you are the president how are you going to sell the war to people? "Our coast guard sailed miles away from China, had an epic water gun fight. We were outnumbered and lost, so we declare war on China"o_O
Obviously, I'll send the naval ships back to where it started and escalate until they back off or I have proper cause to go to war because they've reached the point of firing real weapons on each other :rolleyes:
You here are the light bulb, I am the one giving links here.
You're the one asking to be enlightened so it seems you've got your analogies all tangled up again.
You were wrong about the fishing boat sunk itself, for example. It would be wise to have an open mind.
I was going off of published media. When I was wrong, published media was wrong; when I was right, it was because public media brought to light that the ROC hid the truth and now it's out. I've no open mind to random crazy ideas and neither does the CCP apparently.
Honestly that is a good deal. American brag about sailing 7th fleet miles away from evil CCP, China gets to brag about snatching Taiwan patrol boat protected by 7th fleet. We all win here, except Taiwan of course.
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Bro it is one google search away you can't expect me to do all your homework.
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No declaration of war. Bombed a couple empty warehouse, lost the drone that did it. Of course US navy is much better protected so no vessel lost. That didn't stop Houthis from giving it a try. US missiles missed and ship barely stopped it with CIWS.
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Can't say I advice China to also steal American ships, but US is no stranger to embarassing response after provocations.
Making sure we're talking about the same incident because in this incident, the US struck Houthi military sites in Yemen, so for this analogy to make sense, you'd be saying that American can strike Chinese military bases and all we'd do is harrass their ships. No go, it's an analogy that's almost as bad as the one treating a grounded naval ship as if it were a sailing one.
 
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Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
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Kinmen Justice Department says clear evidence of ramming, likely judgement is negligent homicide, CGA personals involved likely to face less than 5 years of jail term and civil damage.

I rather doubt mainland government would accept this and settle the matter at this stage, not without someone from DPP doing a public apology.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
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Kinmen Justice Department says clear evidence of ramming, likely judgement is negligent homicide, CGA personals involved likely to face less than 5 years of jail term and civil damage.

I rather doubt mainland government would accept this and settle the matter at this stage, not without someone from DPP doing a public apology.

With or without apology it is unlikely for mainland to give up the gain.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
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Kinmen Justice Department says clear evidence of ramming, likely judgement is negligent homicide, CGA personals involved likely to face less than 5 years of jail term and civil damage.

I rather doubt mainland government would accept this and settle the matter at this stage, not without someone from DPP doing a public apology.
@TK3600

you called it correctly.


Arresting a coast guard boat is not the same as arresting military ships. The important context is the said organisation murdered civilians first, without backing down. All they need to do handing out sentence to the killers on their own. The arrest is response in the event they refuse to. No way they value those offending officer over a war. Nor would it be sufficient excuse to start one. Honestly merely arresting in response to killing is lenient.
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
That may be but your logic is wrong. Nothing backs you up because evidence that coast guards attack each other is not evidence that coast guards don't attack the navies of other countries.

OK
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2 Filipino Naval supply ships, one rammed, 1 water gunned. Coast guard ship also water gunned.
No it is not. You are the one failed reading comprehension. It is civilian boats sending food supply to the stranded naval vessel, one of them with a military officer onboard, hence "navy operated supply ship". It is not a naval vessel.

Name of supply ship 1: Unnaiza Mae 1,
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name of supply ship 2: M/L Kalavaan
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Both are civilian ships according to links provided. They are about as much a military vessel as a pizza van shipping pizza to military.

Case of reading comprehension failure #2:
That may be but your logic is wrong. Nothing backs you up because evidence that coast guards attack each other is not evidence that coast guards don't attack the navies of other countries.
Quote me when I said coast guard should start attack navy. Only acceptable scenario is if said naval vessel attack China first, possibly an act of war. In fact, I said the very opposite that naval vessel cannot be attacked, hence the big difference:
Of course coast guard and navy are big differences. Marinetime patrol harass each other all the time with no escalation. Naval vessel on other hand is much more sensitive. Even with weak Philippino naval vessel China tread carefully.

If you don't take drugs, maybe you need to, prescription only! You can settle down and learn what an emotion is.
I can't see how that is relevant to the discussion. I debate with fact and evidence, you are the one derailing with emotional arguments. Seems to be a case of projection here.

Your attempt to debate me is the only drunk man trying to fight Mike Tyson. Your mind can't wrap around the concept of China not wanting a fight until it can win bloodlessly and costlessly. I never said China is weaker; I said it's not in China's interest to escalate when its power is rising and American power is waning relative to each other. And judging by how China handles itself with the US, I'm right.

6 US vessels against 2 Chinese? What? Go reread the paragraph you quoted and bolded. You're responding to things what weren't said because you can't even read and you're trying to debate...

You should delete your account for your own incompetence at reading comprehension; China's done nothing wrong. Preparing to engage the 7th fleet isn't about detecting them; it's about building up for decades preparing for war.
^ Speaking of emotional arguments.

The bolded part is you claiming equal or above. You then talked about sending the 7th fleet in. 6 coast guard boats, 3, don't matter. China better detect them if it is couple miles from their beach.

Speaking of reading failure there is one in your own example. Here you wrote "They can call for support but it's a long time on the high seas before others reach the area." Kinmen is not high sea. If it is outside Kinmen, there is no reason to seize boat, therefore irrelevant example.
Uh, yeah. The patrol boat is guarding an ROC vessel. They were engaged by Chinese ships. The US vessel attempts to stop the Chinese vessels from boarding and seizing the ROC vessel. It is rammed and damaged in order to prevent it from doing its job forcing it to retreat. The US throws a tantrum; it's not about any patrol boats now; it's about American pride. Next up, Arleigh Burkes and perhaps a Ticonderoga class shows up. Now you've got the choice of ramming them or letting them go. If you let them go, there was no point; you got proven soft. If you attack them, now it's war. It's pretty sad I have to spell this out in such details for you. Most people know if you tussle with someone's ships, unless they're scared of you, it's going to escalate and you better be ready handle the full fight.

Or a person without basic reading comprehension trying to debate me.
Your own reading failure: you based off assumption China will start attacking US navy first.

The correct response of the Chinese Coast Guard depends how you "imagined" US naval vessel attempt to stop China. Gun firing is a no go even you agreed. The only options are ramming and blocking. In case of ramming they initiated the aggression, how their ship is damaged in the process is their fault. Blocking requires multiple ships sailing deeply into Chinese territorial water, which would have alerted PLAN long before it got there.
You're the one asking to be enlightened so it seems you've got your analogies all tangled up again.
You asked for link repeatedly, then failed reading comprehension of said link, so I returned your quote back to you. In my case, my "asking to be enlightened" is on "alternative methods" to the 3 listed. You clearly didn't mention a 4th one only replied on the 3 listed. That is reading comprehension failure #4, 5 if you count the recurring one.

I was going off of published media. When I was wrong, published media was wrong; when I was right, it was because public media brought to light that the ROC hid the truth and now it's out. I've no open mind to random crazy ideas and neither does the CCP apparently.
If you are as good as Taiwanese media that is not a high bar. Nor were you right at understanding how the government operates. Because the perpetrator is not going free like you claimed. Although in my opinion simply admit ramming is not enough for a severe sentence. We will have to see how it unfolds.
 
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TK3600

Major
Registered Member
@TK3600

you called it correctly.

In my opinion it is the most logical outcome. Taiwan cannot get away with murder and play hardball. The minimal response is to sentence their own officer, but leniently, to save face.

Personally, I think this is not enough for CCP. In my brief time as youth volunteer in the government my experience is they care about domestic opinion a lot. If the higher up is talking about it and it is making news headline, some pretty heavy response is brewing.
 
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Kinmen Justice Department says clear evidence of ramming, likely judgement is negligent homicide, CGA personals involved likely to face less than 5 years of jail term and civil damage.

I rather doubt mainland government would accept this and settle the matter at this stage, not without someone from DPP doing a public apology.

Can the bereaved file a civil case against the CGA and personnels?
 
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