PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
No it is not. You are the one failed reading comprehension. It is civilian boats sending food supply to the stranded naval vessel, one of them with a military officer onboard, hence "navy operated supply ship". It is not a naval vessel.

Name of supply ship 1: Unnaiza Mae 1,
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name of supply ship 2: M/L Kalavaan
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Both are civilian ships according to links provided. They are about as much a military vessel as a pizza van shipping pizza to military.
It's as close as it gets; we act as we do no matter what ships they send out. They didn't send any kind of destroyer, etc... the closest to a military/naval vessel are these 2 navy-operated supply vessels. At least I didn't use the example of a warship grounded on the beach to show how we don't ram, block or water cannon lighthouses. If you wanna show that China treats Philippino naval ships differently from coast guard ships, you need to compare incidences between the 2 to show how China behaves differently in similar situations because the the status of the Philippino vessel.
Case of reading comprehension failure #2:

Quote me when I said coast guard should start attack navy. Only acceptable scenario is if said naval vessel attack China first, possibly an act of war. In fact, I said the very opposite that naval vessel cannot be attacked, hence the big difference:
OK, there is no reading comprehension issue on my part (interesting how you basically copy whatever I say to you...) but the issue is actually that you confused yourself on what this was about. You said that Chinese ships do whatever they want with Philippino coast guard ships but thread carefully with their naval vessels. What incident leads you to believe that China threads carefully when those pop gun ships are around?
I can't see how that is relevant to the discussion.
It was an aside to you getting so emotional that you wrote nonsense like entertainment being an emotion.
I debate with fact and evidence,
Unfortunately, you tried to apply facts to the scenario but always failed to draw the correct parallels, such as the time you compared a grounded ship to a sailing one and when you said that the US could not respond to Houthi attacks at sea except they bombed the houthis on land, making the comparision utterly pointless. They are facts, but you cannot interpret them usefully.
you are the one derailing with emotional arguments. Seems to be a case of projection here.
^ Speaking of emotional arguments.

The bolded part is you claiming equal or above. You then talked about sending the 7th fleet in. 6 coast guard boats, 3, don't matter. China better detect them if it is couple miles from their beach.
I'm emotional because I'm telling you that you're not going to "cuck" the US navy by seizing ships under their active protection? Why is that my emotion? Am I American? NO, I'd love to see China do what you want to see but it's not realistic at all. Your plan for the US to gloat on its FONOPS and China to gloat on seizing ships that are shadowed by the 7th fleet is a deal made between you and you; not the US, not China. You wrote what you wanted to see, not what was possible. That's emotional. I'm never emotional when vouching for American power; it's me at my most bleakest admittance of our current limits, that we're not yet in prime position to kick the US off if its throne.
Speaking of reading failure there is one in your own example. Here you wrote "They can call for support but it's a long time on the high seas before others reach the area." Kinmen is not high sea. If it is outside Kinmen, there is no reason to seize boat, therefore irrelevant example.
Kinmen is not the only part that China claims. They can do that anywhere they have an open sea advantage; they can do it like they were doing FONOPS. China doesn't start shooting for those; it's just the history between China and the US.
Your own reading failure: you based off assumption China will start attacking US navy first.
No, it's common sense. If Chinese vessels attempt to seize an ROC vessel and the US ships come up to block their path, they can either abort or ram... unless they wanna shoot. That's it.
The correct response of the Chinese Coast Guard depends how you "imagined" US naval vessel attempt to stop China. Gun firing is a no go even you agreed. The only options are ramming and blocking. In case of ramming they initiated the aggression, how their ship is damaged in the process is their fault.
You say it's their fault; they say they're not aggressive since they're sailing in ROC territorial seas and you rammed them as they blocked your attempt to seize an ROC vessel. You say it's their fault and they say its your fault.
Blocking requires multiple ships sailing deeply into Chinese territorial water,
What does this even mean? Nothing needs to be very deep into China's territorial waters if they're doing a FONOPS-like demo and blocking a seizure attempt only requires about 2 ships, left and right.
which would have alerted PLAN long before it got there.
Yeah, and the PLAN will treat the US ships like they do in the SCS.
You asked for link repeatedly, then failed reading comprehension of said link, so I returned your quote back to you. In my case, my "asking to be enlightened" is on "alternative methods" to the 3 listed. You clearly didn't mention a 4th one only replied on the 3 listed.
What you asked for and what you need are different, unfortunately. It's not more methods, but you needed enlightenment on how the 3 methods could be used, and apparently, how Chinese and US forces treat each other outside of your imagination. In other words, the scope of the argument is not confined to where you wish.
That is reading comprehension failure #4, 5 if you count the recurring one.
We're actually not counting any of them, because like your "cuck the USN" scenarios, those are all either in your imagination and/or due to your misinterpretation as always.
If you are as good as Taiwanese media that is not a high bar.
What does this mean? I don't even read Taiwanese media; I got it only from English sources. There were none others contradicting it at the time.
Nor were you right at understanding how the government operates. Because the perpetrator is not going free like you claimed. Although in my opinion simply admit ramming is not enough for a severe sentence. We will have to see how it unfolds.
I'll give you this one; I am shocked, pleasantly shocked that the Kinmen authorities charged the ROC Coast Guards at all. The official ROC statement is that they did no wrong and next time, they are to use lethal force. How would anyone guess they would 180 and blame their own coast guards now? I wonder if the ROC government will intervene and overrule the charges brought by the local Kinmen government. If not, then they are really much much softer than I had imagined and what they give off. If a foreign ship enters your territorial seas and then attempts to flee, then ramming them after they refuse to stop is the correct action. I'd support it if a Chinese Coast Guard ship did this to the vessel of any hostile nation challenging our rule over our seas. If the ROC government charges these men with wrongdoing, they are kinda admitting that they recognize that they don't own, or at least don't exclusively own these areas. They would use some excuse like breech of protocol but the big jist is that they're acknowledging China's right to be there. Now that's a major retreat to Chinese reunification efforts. It seems to good to be true. If they actually get convicted, then I'd say that's a major milestone to the final goal and a signal that they are getting ripe for the picking.

That said, 4 men aren't worth anything compared to successful salami slicing of the area. If they're doing this as a peace offering for us to stop slicing, we're got to keep pushing forth.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Another source:
View attachment 125900

CCG video this week also showed them escorting a fishing ship:
View attachment 125901

Guo Zhengliang seems to think if this issue is not resolved by early March then once the main fishing season resumes we will see a lot of Xiamen fishing ships around Kinmen protected by CCG and ignoring ROCCGA. I looked up the 2023 fishing ban and it seems to go from first of May till Auguest-September, depending on the type of commercial fishing. As far as I can tell commercial fishing is currently not banned at Xiamen but maybe there's some seasonal elements to it.
1709061481068.jpeg
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
@TK3600 is either a very gullible/emotional oversea Chinese or an Indian plant. @manqiangrexue is correct in rebuffing your absurd scenarios.
Oh boy, just when that convo seems to have come to a close... He's definitely an emotional hotblooded Chinese guy; let's not call people Indians as a default insult now... It's just too insulting LOL He wants to see the ROC hanjian and the American imperialists get what's coming; I do too. That's the big picture. And he did accurately call that those 4 guys would be into some kind ot legal trouble which blew my mind but he got at least the the start of it right. Still waiting to see if they actually go to court or if they get jailed but that's one step at a time now.

@TK3600 Now let me just clarify and put my words into a better-laid out schematic. China is growing faster than the US, basically in every area. At this rate, without too much change, we'll overtake them. That's why we dont' want too much change but the US wouldn't mind it because it's all going to shit anyway for them if they don't rock the boat. We'd prefer to keep the temperature low and grow under the radar or at least as much under the radar as we can get away with. Everything we do that results in a Chinese gain turns up the temperature. When it gets too hot, the risk of a conflict that could rock the boat and present obstacles to our growth becomes too high and we want to cool it off. Therefore, we want to do things that raise the temperature as little as possible while bringing the most strategic benefit. That's the core of salami slicing. Slowling curling back ROC governmental access and control to the seas seems to be the best right now; it doesn't seem to affect the temperature much since they are expecting us to be pissed over 2 dead guys, and yet the strategic benefit to increasing our controlled oceanic space is tremendous in comparison to other options. Conversely, seizing a boat or hunting down those 4 guys while they're on duty raises the temperature up much more (as it's just more provocative to capture people and seize ships) but brings in almost no strategic value. We don't want those captured dinghys and of course those 4 men are useless to us. So even if we could do it, even if we ended up winning a very heated escalation that could involve the US, it would serve us better to spend that energy and reserve that "heat allowance" for things that are of strategic value, like pushing them off of more territory.

I'm once again truly shocked that those 4 were charged. If they end up jailed, it will be of some value in demoralizing the Taiwanese who want to fight us by showing them that just China's rage can make their own government throw them under the bus. It also shows that Taiwan's resolve to push against us is in a shambled state. So if they give us this, it'll be a freebie but we definitely cannot weaken any resolve as a result of it because their attitude is fluid but salami slices of ocean territory can be forever.
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
Oh boy, just when that convo seems to have come to a close... He's definitely an emotional hotblooded Chinese guy; let's not call people Indians as a default insult now... It's just too insulting LOL He wants to see the ROC hanjian and the American imperialists get what's coming; I do too. That's the big picture. And he did accurately call that those 4 guys would be into some kind ot legal trouble which blew my mind but he got at least the the start of it right. Still waiting to see if they actually go to court or if they get jailed but that's one step at a time now.

@TK3600 Now let me just clarify and put my words into a better-laid out schematic. China is growing faster than the US, basically in every area. At this rate, without too much change, we'll overtake them. That's why we dont' want too much change but the US wouldn't mind it because it's all going to shit anyway for them if they don't rock the boat. We'd prefer to keep the temperature low and grow under the radar or at least as much under the radar as we can get away with. Everything we do that results in a Chinese gain turns up the temperature. When it gets too hot, the risk of a conflict that could rock the boat and present obstacles to our growth becomes too high and we want to cool it off. Therefore, we want to do things that raise the temperature as little as possible while bringing the most strategic benefit. That's the core of salami slicing. Slowling curling back ROC governmental access and control to the seas seems to be the best right now; it doesn't seem to affect the temperature much since they are expecting us to be pissed over 2 dead guys, and yet the strategic benefit to increasing our controlled oceanic space is tremendous in comparison to other options. Conversely, seizing a boat or hunting down those 4 guys while they're on duty raises the temperature up much more (as it's just more provocative to capture people and seize ships) but brings in almost no strategic value. We don't want those captured dinghys and of course those 4 men are useless to us. So even if we could do it, even if we ended up winning a very heated escalation that could involve the US, it would serve us better to spend that energy and reserve that "heat allowance" for things that are of strategic value, like pushing them off of more territory.

I'm once again truly shocked that those 4 were charged. If they end up jailed, it will be of some value in demoralizing the Taiwanese who want to fight us by showing them that just China's rage can make their own government throw them under the bus. It also shows that Taiwan's resolve to push against us is in a shambled state. So if they give us this, it'll be a freebie but we definitely cannot weaken any resolve as a result of it because their attitude is fluid but salami slices of ocean territory can be forever.
I agree that the sentencing should not weaken the slice. It is clear suspects are being slapped in the wrist as a compromise to lower temperature.

Ultimately we both share the view China should do what it can get away with and leave war to later. The only disagreements are in details.

@TK3600 is either a very gullible/emotional oversea Chinese or an Indian plant. @manqiangrexue is correct in rebuffing your absurd scenarios.

Whoa there buddy, no matter how heated the debate was with @manqiangrexue you don't see me calling him Indian do you?
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
ROC side claim CCG fleet around Kinmen has been further reinforced, now numbering 11 ships:
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Meanwhile fishing ships today:
61ab5cebgy1hn8ku8ttdrj20u017k42d.jpg
61ab5cebgy1hn8ku9kk26j20u0183whq.jpg
61ab5cebgy1hn8kuawlilj20yz1fawvl.jpg
61ab5cebgy1hn8kuc2rv1j20u017z0w4.jpg

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Taiwan Affairs Office piped up today, classifying this incident as "恶性事件". People like Shilao, Ayi and Shenyi has been singing this tune for a few days now saying internally CPC have classified this event as 恶性事件 and so won't go easy on DPP this time.

恶性事件 would be the same sort of classification as the supposed murder of Chinese police in Kokang, which as we know lead to MNDAA's offensive that deposed the four families and resulted in their members ending up in Chinese jail.
 

coolgod

Colonel
Registered Member
"The training materials show Russia's eastern military district was rehearsing multiple scenarios including using nukes against China in a Chinese invasion."
Its possible Russians suspect Reunification of Outer Manchuria (Historical Chinese regions invaded by Russia) with Mainland during the taiwan contingency

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The classified papers, seen by the Financial Times,
The cache consists of 29 secret Russian military files drawn up between 2008 and 2014, including scenarios for war-gaming and presentations for naval officers, which discuss operating principles for the use of nuclear weapons.

Wow new "leak" about nuclear threats from Russia, totally believable. I think most SDF members can write a more credible fanfic than that FP article.
 
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