PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

TK3600 said:

Coast guard can get harassed with water gun, physical blocking, ramming, no problem. When it comes to naval vessel like the one stranded on renaijiao, China only wait for it to fall apart after couple decades. That is the difference. If US coast guard comes, blocking is completely normal. You dont do that to naval vessel unless you actually are prepared for a war.

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Uhhhhhh that "naval vessel" is a fking lighthouse as it currently stands! It's on the ground; how would you block it or ram it?? You'd need to drive right up to it to water cannon it; you'd ground your ship into the sand long before you got into water cannon range. Terrible example!

Here is a Chinese Coast Guard ship using hydro pump on a Philippino military vessel; one that's actually sailing in the ocean:

TK3600 said:

The only emotion I get is entertainment from you hype up US coast guard of all things.

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Entertainment is not an emotion unless you're on drugs.

TK3600 said:

By all means explain how would a coast guard or naval vessel stopping China seizing a boat.

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I've already done that. By blocking and raming. Anything the Chinese Coast Guard can do to seize a ship, the US Coast Guard can do to stop it. I can't believe how difficult it is for you to understand. Here's a question for you: If the US Coast guard attempted to pirate a Chinese fishing boat while it is being guarded by the Chinese Coast Guard, is there anything the Chinese Coast Guard ship could do to stop it? If you reply yes, then replace the names and you have your answer. And don't imagine some 6 Chinese Coast Guard ships to one American one; the most likely encounter takes place when a lone or pair of Chinese Coast Guard vessels encounters a US vessel or 2 guarding an ROC Coast guard vessel. They can call for support but it's a long time on the high seas before others reach the area. With equal numbers, can you stop them?

TK3600 said:

In case of naval vessel it will not be harmed, but same curtesy do not extend to Taiwan boats.

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And that, right there, goes back to the beginning point of embarrassing China by showing the world that the application of Chinese laws depends on your power, and that the US has the power to be above those laws.

TK3600 said:

Option 1: blocking Chinese patrol physically. It can't, it is outnumbered unless a whole fleet come. In that case Chinese naval vessel can do the same and out number it.

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Yeah and then the 7th fleet joins the party. That's called going to war. If you recall, as it pertains here, it's taking the bait.

TK3600 said:

Option 2: ram Chinese boat. In that case Chinese are allowed to ram back and naval vessel cost way more to repair.

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See above.

TK3600 said:

Option 3: shoot Chinese boats. The shore is couple miles away and the fleet will be in a terrible position for return fires. Not going to happen.

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They likely will not do that, but if they did, they would likely be defeated on the spot. And then, go back up the the part where the 7th fleet joins the party.

TK3600 said:

Feel free to enlighten me if you have alternative methods.

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The electricity is supplied but whether the light bulb illuminates depends on its quality.

TK3600 said:

Same same. You are laughing too. This whole sending a fleet to protect Taiwanese boat is dumb. China will call this bluff, that is why US will not do it. They are smarter than that. They know they will fail so they will not attempt.

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No, they're not really there to protect anyone nor do they care about Taiwan or its boats. They're there to embarrass China and you know the US cares about nothing more than trying to embarrass China. As of now, they've not done it but elsewhere, they've deployed, especially in the SCS to bolster local coast guards and navies against China. If Taiwan cries to the world that its coast guard vessels are being seized, America will have every motive to send its coast guard and navy to show the world that America is still a reliable partner and that China can be backed down, especially if they're confident that that can do this without firing or being fired upon.

TK3600 said:

They are not going on a shooting ramapge because China didnt give them face and boarded a boat couple mile in their own teritory.

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Yeah, exactly, and China's not going on a shooting rampage either, even if the US sends ships, navy or Coast Guard, to guard ROC Coast guard ships as they go back to where they were once expelled or seized.

TK3600 said:

Actually no, I take it back. US sent 2 carriers protecting ship from Yemeni pirates. Barely any response from US after their own civilian ship got hit. I'd say by now US is used to embarassments.

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1. Link the incident.
2. The trouble with pirates is that they're just rats. If a rat steals from you and gets away, you let it go. If your main rival is caught in the act of stealing from you, you fight with all your might against him.

montyp165 said:

China is doing what I fully expected them to do in this situation, and as for the US, as they're the ones in the Soviet position they're certainly much more willing to go 'use it or lose it' in terms of conflict compared to the Soviets, so in the current terms a US initiated conflict is inevitable within 2 years regardless of administration.

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Inevitable means it can't be stopped, you know that, right? That means that you think there will definitely be a war between China and the US in 2 years?? The whole Soviet example showed the US navigating a declining Soviet Union so that it could fall peacefully without war and that's what I'm saying that China will do. So war is not inevitable.

coolgod said:

Mainland Chinese inspected the overturned fishing vessel and the Taiwanese coast guard ship which rammed it yesterday. China is now demanding Taiwan release the names of the four people on that coast guard ship. Looks like China has finally changed its Taiwan policy.

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On balance, I feel that this is a deliberate fake release by Taiwan to try and find itself a ladder to climb down with by offering the 4 human scum up as literal sacrificial lambs to try to get things to go back to normal. But that boat has sailed, or sunk is more appropriate here.

China would already have the names of the 4 human scum involved. There is no need to ask Taiwan for their names.

Had Taiwan’s authorities reacted to this tragedy with basic humanity in a responsible and reasonable manner, China would perhaps be willing to take this offering. But then had Taiwan authorities reacted like normal human beings, things wouldn’t have gone this far.

I think China had decided that a line must be drawn and a lesson taught, and taught well. As such, this meagre offering is too little too late.

China has been very careful to measured to make sure it’s actions do not unduly inconvenience the people living on Jinmen, so there isn’t really any concern that they might turn the currently pro-China locals against China. If anything, this show of force to stand for justice is likely to further boost the pro-China sentiment on the island. So as far as China is concerned, the current patrols can go on indefinitely.

That’s not to say China will refuse if Taiwan offered to turn the 4 over to stand trial and face justice, but don’t expect that to be enough or that things will ever go back to the way it was before.

Chinese fisherman are now openly flaunting going over the supposed boundaries of Kinmen now.

plawolf said:

On balance, I feel that this is a deliberate fake release by Taiwan to try and find itself a ladder to climb down with by offering the 4 human scum up as literal sacrificial lambs to try to get things to go back to normal. But that boat has sailed, or sunk is more appropriate here.

China would already have the names of the 4 human scum involved. There is no need to ask Taiwan for their names.

Had Taiwan’s authorities reacted to this tragedy with basic humanity in a responsible and reasonable manner, China would perhaps be willing to take this offering. But then had Taiwan authorities reacted like normal human beings, things wouldn’t have gone this far.

I think China had decided that a line must be drawn and a lesson taught, and taught well. As such, this meagre offering is too little too late.

China has been very careful to measured to make sure it’s actions do not unduly inconvenience the people living on Jinmen, so there isn’t really any concern that they might turn the currently pro-China locals against China. If anything, this show of force to stand for justice is likely to further boost the pro-China sentiment on the island. So as far as China is concerned, the current patrols can go on indefinitely.

That’s not to say China will refuse if Taiwan offered to turn the 4 over to stand trial and face justice, but don’t expect that to be enough or that things will ever go back to the way it was before.

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If DPP openly hand over the four ROCCGA people involved in this it would be a hit to the morale of their troops and make defection even more likely.

Particularly Kinmen which is in swimmable distance. I wonder what that cook from last year is thinking at the moment? Probably watching the news while eating watermalon.

Temstar said:

If DPP openly hand over the four ROCCGA people involved in this it would be a hit to the morale of their troops and make defection even more likely.

Particularly Kinmen which is in swimmable distance. I wonder what that cook from last year is thinking at the moment? Probably watching the news while eating watermalon.

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They got Green Berated commissioners now to shot swimmers, so problem solved.

I would say having all the mainland patrols and the ROCCGA being too chickenshit to even come out of port is a far bigger drain on moral. If they did a show trial to convict the 4 of murder and gross misconduct before handing them to over to the mainland, I don’t think many soldiers on Taiwan will be all that bothered if murdering civilians isn’t on their bucket list.

Andrew Hsia the Taiwanese politician who is a vice chairman of the Kuomintang, visited China today and couldn't get to meet any mainland official. Maybe the age of 两岸一家亲 is really over, the top level policy change really isn't just rhetoric.

Those 4 are definitely going to get caught one way or another the way rhetoric is going.

manqiangrexue said:

Uhhhhhh that "naval vessel" is a fking lighthouse as it currently stands! It's on the ground; how would you block it or ram it?? You'd need to drive right up to it to water cannon it; you'd ground your ship into the sand long before you got into water cannon range. Terrible example!

Here is a Chinese Coast Guard ship using hydro pump on a Philippino military vessel; one that's actually sailing in the ocean:

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It is a coast guard vessel in question. Your own video say it is released by coast guard. The title is wrong. Your own evidence back me up coast guard gets harassed all the time, no escalation. Try again.

manqiangrexue said:

Entertainment is not an emotion unless you're on drugs.

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Entertained, amused, you name it. I don't know about you but I do not take drug to entertain myself. You do you.

manqiangrexue said:

I've already done that. By blocking and raming. Anything the Chinese Coast Guard can do to seize a ship, the US Coast Guard can do to stop it. I can't believe how difficult it is for you to understand. Here's a question for you: If the US Coast guard attempted to pirate a Chinese fishing boat while it is being guarded by the Chinese Coast Guard, is there anything the Chinese Coast Guard ship could do to stop it? If you reply yes, then replace the names and you have your answer. And don't imagine some 6 Chinese Coast Guard ships to one American one; the most likely encounter takes place when a lone or pair of Chinese Coast Guard vessels encounters a US vessel or 2 guarding an ROC Coast guard vessel. They can call for support but it's a long time on the high seas before others reach the area. With equal numbers, can you stop them?

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Yes, of course US coast guard can try to stop China, and vice versa. Ramming, water cannon, blockage. You are the one thought it was impossible cuz war!!! At least we got this cleared since you linked a video showing coast guard being harassed. The only difference China is the stronger side. That is why I am not concerned as it is "a drunk man fighting Mike Tyson".

If your imagined scenario of 6 American vessel bully 2 Chinese vessel happen, then quite frankly China deserves to be embarassed. A large quantity of US coast guard went near your shore miles away, and no detection what so ever? Then it get away before reinforcement show up? Or worse, the entire 7th fleet (your example) showed up miles away and there was no preparation? That will not happen. If it does then China is so incompetent it should never entertain being a great power. I will delete my account right now.

manqiangrexue said:

They likely will not do that, but if they did, they would likely be defeated on the spot. And then, go back up the the part where the 7th fleet joins the party.

The electricity is supplied but whether the light bulb illuminates depends on its quality.

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I am actually laughing right now. 7th fleet show up protecting a patrol boat? Sorry that is not a bait. It is like putting your own head as bait in a bear trap. That aside, no, coast guard water fight dont lead to war. If you are the president how are you going to sell the war to people? "Our coast guard sailed miles away from China, had an epic water gun fight. We were outnumbered and lost, so we declare war on China"

You here are the light bulb, I am the one giving links here. You were wrong about the fishing boat sunk itself, for example. It would be wise to have an open mind.

manqiangrexue said:

No, they're not really there to protect anyone nor do they care about Taiwan or its boats. They're there to embarrass China and you know the US cares about nothing more than trying to embarrass China. As of now, they've not done it but elsewhere, they've deployed, especially in the SCS to bolster local coast guards and navies against China. If Taiwan cries to the world that its coast guard vessels are being seized, America will have every motive to send its coast guard and navy to show the world that America is still a reliable partner and that China can be backed down, especially if they're confident that that can do this without firing or being fired upon.

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Honestly that is a good deal. American brag about sailing 7th fleet miles away from evil CCP, China gets to brag about snatching Taiwan patrol boat protected by 7th fleet. We all win here, except Taiwan of course.

manqiangrexue said:

1. Link the incident.
2. The trouble with pirates is that they're just rats. If a rat steals from you and gets away, you let it go. If your main rival is caught in the act of stealing from you, you fight with all your might against him.

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Bro it is one google search away you can't expect me to do all your homework.


No declaration of war. Bombed a couple empty warehouse, lost the drone that did it. Of course US navy is much better protected so no vessel lost. That didn't stop Houthis from giving it a try. US missiles missed and ship barely stopped it with CIWS.


Can't say I advice China to also steal American ships, but US is no stranger to embarassing response after provocations.

Santamaria said:

I don't pretend to be expert and I am happy to accept critic to my comments. But the expression we don't live in time of WWII was paternalistic.

I also myself want to apologise, that please don’t be paternalistic was aggressive.
Anyway level of comments here is very high, I am happy to interact and read you!!

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Your choice of the word "paternalistic" sounds queer to me, as in, you are saying that others are controlling or making decisions for you.
Just wondering if you meant "the expression" is patronizing to you?
.

LMFAO. Not only do they have limp cannons but now they won’t even come out and enforce their “law” against mainland fishing boats within 1KM of shore.



I have a feeling that AR will end up being very anti-climatic, possibly even more so than Crimea.