PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Temstar

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
Today three large CCG ships entered the "restricted" areas around Kinmen:
61ab5cebly1hn5j5cao27j21ap1cbqd7.jpg
61ab5cebly1hn5j5ctcw7j21at1c7dst.jpg61ab5cebly1hn5j5d6kxwj21at1cf7f4.jpg
All 2000+ ton ships, 2202 and 2203 are in particular ex-PLAN 053H2G frigates and retain their four twin 37mm autocannon turrets.

ROCCGA actually made a showing today:
67edaa51gy1hn5km6nwplj217012c7cn (1).jpg

CCG's official weibo account openly mocked them:
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007bLg8hly1hn5q2am2sqj311i0l6dqc.jpg
Is this 蛇形逃逸?
007bLg8hly1hn5q2ao63wj30yh0n0ar4.jpg
 
Last edited:
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Temstar said:
Today three large CCG ships entered the "restricted" areas around Kinmen:
View attachment 125846
View attachment 125847View attachment 125848
All 2000+ ton ships, 2202 and 2203 are in particular ex-PLAN 053H2G frigates and retain their four twin 37mm autocannon turrets.

ROCCGA actually made a showing today:
View attachment 125850

CCG's official weibo account openly mocked them:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
View attachment 125851
Is this 蛇形逃逸?
View attachment 125852
Click to expand...

What happened to opening fire on Mainland Coastguard ships?
 
M

montyp165

Senior Member
manqiangrexue said:
Not really an inevitability. When the Soviet Union was in its dying years, the US avoided conflict with it because the worst mistake a rising power (or a power that was coming into an age of domination) could do is to get cancelled in a conflict with a waning power on its way out. The Soviets were also aggressive and the US navigated them away from conflict until they dissolved; if they viewed war as inevitable, and got into a nuke-out with the Soviets, the Pax Americana decades would never have happened. China's situation is kinda like that now, except the US is simply weakening in relative terms intead of fading from existence. It is very bad for China to go to war now with the US, since they're exiting thier golden years and we're only entering ours.

Agree and that's what China is doing. The strategy of avoiding a fight only works if you are visibly intimidating and prepared to fight.

The resulting fallout is on whomever loses. Winner is always right in history.
Click to expand...
China is doing what I fully expected them to do in this situation, and as for the US, as they're the ones in the Soviet position they're certainly much more willing to go 'use it or lose it' in terms of conflict compared to the Soviets, so in the current terms a US initiated conflict is inevitable within 2 years regardless of administration.
 
G

gpt

Junior Member
Registered Member
FYI here's an interesting predictions market
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I think the general consensus are things that we already know: there will be no war unless the status quo is changed; the US will 100% come to its defence.

Where people have wildly differing opinions (and ultimately where the debate lies) comes down to military capability, economic implications and timeline.
 
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