CGA should thank the Maritime Patrol ships for providing them with paid time off.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
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CGA should thank the Maritime Patrol ships for providing them with paid time off.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Unfortunately for you, just saying it many times doesn't make it true. I gave examples of what they can do but you didn't rebut anything. From the post above:
"And the lowest hanging fruit for the US would be to send a US Coast Guard Cutter into Chinese patrolled waters shadowing the ROC Coast guard and if China couldn't act normally, which is to board and seize both of them, (and we won't,) then that would make the US look like a hero exposing Chinese hippocracy."
The only way you can interpret this as "not doing shit" would be if you believed that as long as nothing physical was taken then nothing was done. Western media headlines will read, "China Bullies Little Taiwan's Coast Guard but Bows when the US Drops In," because we couldn't seize or ram any American ships like we did to ROC ones, and that's the message to the world.
The whole point of slicing is to keep it under the threshold of retaliatory action. Retaliatory action by whom? Not Taiwan. By the US! If China truly believed that the US couldn't do shit about this, there would be no need to slice. We can do whatever we want; go hunting and blow up all the ROC Coast Guard ships we find anywhere in the water. Hell, we can blow up the ones that are docked too! Apparently, they're already laying limp even when we approach their shores up to the 900m mark now (total submission from them). What are they gonna do about it? Absolutely nothing but bitch and moan. But we're not doing that; we're slicing because clearly we do need to calculate the US response because they're not helpless at all.
So basically it's inapplicable to anything you said about ships physically ramming and preventing passage. OK
Blocking patrols is annexing territorial waters! It's basically saying that I'm taking control of these areas that you used to control or that we jointly used! Where the ROC used to say that only their fishmen are allowed (and fishermen are civilians), now, we make it so that only our fishermen are allowed, not their fishing ships, not their coast guard, probably not even their navy if they wanted to try. How is that different from annexing the territorial water? And to further the point, if there were 2 separate nations, there would be 2 planes of ownership: actual control and legal ownership. The UN would not legally recognize it if a country just took control of the territorial waters of another country by force and the matter would likely go up in limbo because the de facto and de jure ownerships conflicted, but in this case, the UN recognizes China and Taiwan as 1 country so there is no legal aspect. Control is full ownership and control! We just took that chunk of seaspace and we're not giving it back. That's why I'm fully satisfied with it.
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Mainland slices a piece of salami" response seems to be working pretty well, since once the PRC slices the salami it's not giving it back.
I rebutted plenty of times, not my fault if you choose to ignore. For one, US cannot get in in first place. They will be blocked off. It would be up to you to prove using previous incidence where US sailed into inner water of a superpower. It is as implausible as China sail into Long Island in New York.
When did I say China should stop when US is shadowing? US will sit there watch the boat being seized like a cuck. Or they can try to initiate attack and get beaten.
If US feels like fighting, it would be up to US navy not coast guard, even that is uncertain. Yes, it would be entirely possible for China to do the above crazy action, and get away with it. Right now China annexing entire Taiwan is only 50/50 chance US declare war. There is just no point to blowing all the boats. It is not helpful. Expanding patrol zone and placate domestic opinion is helpful.
So you are saying if I aim a gun at you and yell at you for trying go somewhere, that is not intercepting/prevent you from going somewhere? There are ways to block passage without physically blocking.
It is currently unclear to what extent the blockage works. I assumed it is only blocking maritime patrol. If it is permanently inaccesible by any Taiwan government and civilian then I too am satisfied with the slice. We will have to see.
China ain't gonna do it, and if it isn't going to do it there are reasons for that. @manqiangrexue has already provided plenty of reasons why China won't do your proposed actions so all this discussion is more or less meaningless.
Countries work with hard power not emotions. China has evaluated that the current response of salami-slice is enough and suits its national interests. Seems pretty clear cut to me
I think it all comes down to wait and see because situation is still developing. We wasnt sure it was a collision cover up at first, we now know. And there is no sign China has finished its response. It usually takes at least a week to formulate a comprehensive response.
After some thoughts, I don't think it is productive to discuss with him. Not because he don't raise good points, he does. It is just we disagree on too many fundamentals for this to continue.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
It is not nearly as implausible; China does not have military bases around the US like the US has around China. The US frequently conducts FONOPS into Chinese waters though they typically stay fairly close to the 12nm mark. And like I said, Chinese and US ships don't risk collision with each other. Throughout pretty much all of the FONOPS, Chinese ships shadowed with warnings and never tried to physically block them. Furthermore, it is incredibly hard, if not dangerous to block a ship from entering your waters; it's not like you can park your ship in a gateway and they couldn't get through. It's the open ocean and they can try again and again and when they pull back, it's a non-story but if they get through, it's headline news that China failed.
This has never happened in US or Chinese history. It's a retarded level of imagination on your part, both for how China would act and how the US would act. You're clearly starting to let your emotions run things in your head.
I actually feel it's less than a 50% chance the US would dare fight if we move to take Taiwan but the CCP doesn't gamble with no 50% stakes on the well-being of all Chinese people. I'm fully in agreement that if we go for it right now, we can win. But that's not the plan; the plan is to go for it and win in a future where that victory is bloodless and costless. That's the CCP plan so your "We can probably win now" sentiment is irrelevent and actually falls closer to being goaded into a conflict prematurely.
Nobody would dare shoot and they both know it, not between the US and Chinese forces. That's a decision that could tee off WWIII; no commander would let that happen based on the whim of the moment. The US ship would keep sailing, answer the radio, "We are operating within international laws and will continue to do so," which is their view as they patrol with the ROC, and the Chinese ship wouldn't fire, but it would shadow and continue to warn. This is how things have been done between the countries for decades, not your emotional little boy fantasy of cucking them and them beating them.
That's the point of the patrols; it means the area is under us. There's no such thing as patrols only against other patrol ships. I'm fairly sure that if any ROC government vessel tried, they'd be repelled but civilian ships will be travelling with proper permissions and is normal for business and if not, they they will be boarded, as is what happened with the tourist ship a few days ago.
FNOP is done by navy not coastal guards. I think you got those 2 confused. I have never heard of US coast guard doing dangerous mission against large opponents. Show me when it happened.
You think annex territorial water is less provocative than seizing a small boat. Fine, difference in opinion.
I am skeptical China is permanently blocking military deployment like you claimed. We will have to see upcoming announcements.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
LOLOLOL Firstly, if that makes such a distinction to you, the US can just as easily send naval vessels to escort the ROC Coast Guards then. Secondly, what's the difference? You treat the coast guard and navy of a country the same way because the respect that they command does not lie in the power of the ship you're staring at but in the power of the nation backing that ship.
Not only is it less provocative, it is much more effective and strategically valuable. It's less provocative because it is done simply by blocking ships instead of seizing them. One side capturing and seizing the coast guard ships of another side due to dispute is unheard of and that in itself rings huge alarm bells.
That's what Taiwan is hoping for, that once Chinese fury dies down, things can go back to normal but the whole point of salami slicing is you gotta keep the slices. There may not be announcements, just quietly and continuously normalizing total exclusive control of the territory.
I think china won't. DPP wants to leave kinmen so they can declare independence so china will have to allow roc coast guard to stay so they will have string attached to not doing so.
Chinese salami slicing is means ROC administration stays but unable to enforce territorial waters which will increase Taiwan defense budgets and reduce other sectors.