PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
It is no so simple. If Taiwan follow the example of Ukraine, they will do the next:

Radars of air defence in passive mode until the plane is seing visually, then activate and shoot. This minimise the radiation of the air defence and make more difficult the suppresion.

Air defenses will be placed close to civilian buildings. And in Taiwan those civilian buildings will be full of chinese civilians. China faces there the same problem than Russia in Ukraine. Russians consider ukranians as their people, chinese consider taiwanese as their people. Civilian loses are more painful in this wys

There will be thousands mandpads from the top of civilian buildings to shoot at planes flying low. Again to fireback to the people with manpads will be painful because they are in civilian buildings full of your people

The goal will not be to "win" but to inflict maximum damage to Chinese air force, to make chinese society to feel bad to kill its people and to maximise the anti chinese narrative.

In my view China has some advantages against Russia. Taiwan does not have so many air defences as Ukraine, they lack fanatical groups like Azov, and the land is small.
But the overall picture will be the same
You need to read up on how air defence works.

"Visually identified aerial targets"? It is not WWII anymore.
Without volume seach radar cueing fire control radar, you will not be able to know where to point the missiles. Ukranian forces have NATO ISR telling them where the Russian planes are.
 

Santamaria

Junior Member
Registered Member
You need to read up on how air defence works.

"Visually identified aerial targets"? It is not WWII anymore.
Without volume seach radar cueing fire control radar, you will not be able to know where to point the missiles. Ukranian forces have NATO ISR telling them where the Russian planes are.
Please avoid paternalism when taking.

Air defence has different modes, how do you think is that Ukraine make ambushes to Russian planes with a Patriot of other means?

If the radars would be active the planes would see the anti aircraft system in its own radar.

The procedure is to use the radar in passive mode to avoid emitting signal and only activate it when you are going to shot, in order to direct the missile to the target.
This is the fire control you talk about.

When you know the target plane is close, and this is mainly visual, you activate radar and shot.

The ISR is mainly use to analysw the common routes of planes and place there the air defence for the trap
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Please avoid paternalism when taking.

Air defence has different modes, how do you think is that Ukraine make ambushes to Russian planes with a Patriot of other means?

If the radars would be active the planes would see the anti aircraft system in its own radar.

The procedure is to use the radar in passive mode to avoid emitting signal and only activate it when you are going to shot, in order to direct the missile to the target.
This is the fire control you talk about.

When you know the target plane is close, and this is mainly visual, you activate radar and shot.

The ISR is mainly use to analysw the common routes of planes and place there the air defence for the trap
How can you visually identify a plane on a cloudy day or at night?
Do you think you can see a 737 at cruising altitude on a clear day?
 

montyp165

Senior Member
Please avoid paternalism when taking.

Air defence has different modes, how do you think is that Ukraine make ambushes to Russian planes with a Patriot of other means?

If the radars would be active the planes would see the anti aircraft system in its own radar.

The procedure is to use the radar in passive mode to avoid emitting signal and only activate it when you are going to shot, in order to direct the missile to the target.
This is the fire control you talk about.

When you know the target plane is close, and this is mainly visual, you activate radar and shot.

The ISR is mainly use to analysw the common routes of planes and place there the air defence for the trap
Big difference is that PLA electronic warfare capabilities are far more robust and comprehensive vs Taiwan air defences when compared to Russia vs Ukraine, both in terms of doctrine and available hardware, on top of having a much greater volume and supply of guided stand-off munitions, so if anyone is expecting a type of 'gotcha' situation against the PLA, they're in for a very rude awakening.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Please avoid paternalism when taking.

Air defence has different modes, how do you think is that Ukraine make ambushes to Russian planes with a Patriot of other means?

If the radars would be active the planes would see the anti aircraft system in its own radar.

The procedure is to use the radar in passive mode to avoid emitting signal and only activate it when you are going to shot, in order to direct the missile to the target.
This is the fire control you talk about.

When you know the target plane is close, and this is mainly visual, you activate radar and shot.

The ISR is mainly use to analysw the common routes of planes and place there the air defence for the trap
that's the problem with ground combat in complex environments. It is very messy. You can easily have ambushes and surprises against air assets because of forward spotters hidden in mountains or in trees, a few guys with MANPADs waiting for helicopters, etc.

naval (and desert) combat is cleaner. I already went over why Taiwan won't have the opportunity to pull what Ukraine does - they'll be forced to turn on their radars, since there won't be forward air observers in the strait.

But can Taiwan proactively attack? No. Their ground based long range missiles attempting to strike targets in mainland China must overfly not just the strait but also a large chunk of Chinese territory that will have forward observers and combat air patrols. The only way to avoid it is to strike coastal targets - but there aren't many stationary coastal targets of military importance. Their only option would be terror bombing Xiamen or Fuzhou which would be military ineffective and only harden resolve against them.

And if Taiwan cannot strike a significant number of PLA air bases with cruise or ballistic missiles, their relative sortie rate will plummet as PLAAF can continue sorting planes while their operations are severely disrupted by missiles and drones falling on them. The actual number of aircraft in the air is related to sortie rates, not to total plane count. A plane on the ground doesn't do any good.
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
View attachment 125610
View attachment 125611
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Taiwanese version of Zhangjim .
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Lmao I checked out PTT BBS, tons of Zhangjim there.

Chinese coast guards continued to patrol in supposed Kinmen waters today.
My favourite response is this:
1708419096133.png
"Next time CCG dares to board, immediately send warships and CGA ships to surround them, otherwise they think Taiwan is made out of plastic and easily bullied"

"But their ship is 92m long..."
 

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
My favourite response is this:
View attachment 125615
"Next time CCG dares to board, immediately send warships and CGA ships to surround them, otherwise they think Taiwan is made out of plastic and easily bullied"
I though you guys (the Wanwanese) just ordered the CGA to open fire upon the CCG when this happens? Where did that order went to?
 
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