PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
FairAndUnbiased said:
Taiwanese polling for military has never been high. But polls are just polls.
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They're evidence of low morale and low confidence against China, which is the opposite of them thinking of us as beggars or jokers. What their media wants to convey is not what the public thinks.
FairAndUnbiased said:
It's not giving them a reason to respect us. It means their good will is unnecessary and if coercion is necessary so be it. This is a big mentality change within China itself.
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I think there is some confusion here. I never said that we should show good will or offer economic concessions or anything of the sort. I said we should keep growing and tilting the balance towards us before making a decisive attack, if needed, to secure Taiwan. Unlike @zhangjim , I don't think that Chinese people should be pressuring the CCP into initiating a conflict before they've decided that the power balance and timing are correct, even if they have trouble controlling their emotions from 2 guys who died capsizing their own boat.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
manqiangrexue said:
They're evidence of low morale and low confidence against China, which is the opposite of them thinking of us as beggars or jokers. What their media wants to convey is not what the public thinks.

I think there is some confusion here. I never said that we should show good will or offer economic concessions or anything of the sort. I said we should keep growing and tilting the balance towards us before making a decisive attack, if needed, to secure Taiwan. Unlike @zhangjim , I don't think that Chinese people should be pressuring the CCP into initiating a conflict before they've decided that the power balance and timing are correct, even if they have trouble controlling their emotions from 2 guys who died capsizing their own boat.
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turns out that the government has already taken the initiative of escalating by escorting fishing boats with the coast guard. Taiwan is already jumping to authorizing lethal force. If they were rational, they would realize doing so is very stupid.

If they were rational, they'd also remember that in 2022 there were drones flying into their field headquarters taking photos of their battle plans lmao.
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They were also ineffective and slow.

Yet they're still talking big.
 
delta115

delta115

Junior Member
Registered Member
grulle said:
Looking at the conflicts in Ukraine and US-Houthi strikes, I'm starting to feel a little anxious about a Taiwan scenario. In Ukraine, Russia did not have success in initial airstrikes targeting Ukrainian military infrastructure. Similarly, US strikes on Houthi missiles sites has had limited success. Why is it so hard to destroy enemy missile and radar sites in the early stages of a conflict? It wouldn't be surprising if China run into similar problems in a Taiwan scenario.

Thoughts?
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Both are half-ass strike...

Russia didn't even strike infrastructure in mass until second half of 2022 when it should be done when they are crossing border. Hell, they didn't even strike barrack full of soldiers in the first few days. Even then, it still far less destruction than they could actually do. Not to mention the lack of ISR on their side.

US strike at Houti is just an attempt to save face and scaring them to backdown. They don't want to get bog down in ME anymore.

The problem of both scenarios you mention is lack of will, they is why I always said that if AR happen. PLA need to go all in. Anything less would be Ukraine 2.0 that cost more lives than it should.
 
lcloo

lcloo

Captain
Moonscape said:
Well, if worse comes to worse, I personally think it's still a few years too early in terms of optimal timing for reintegrating Taiwan into China proper, but it's probably an acceptable timing for reunification, with the US overstretched on multiple fronts and NATO ammunition depleted.
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Nothing personal, not aiming at you as I have seen many times people outside China, mostly Westerners, like to use the term "China Proper". This is controversial term many Chinese do not like. People in China never use this term.

The Bing AI Chatbot replied to my enquiry on this term :-
"The concept of “China Proper” perpetuates a distinction between the “core” and “periphery,” which can evoke colonialist thinking."

It reminded Chinese people the thinking of the West colonialist of "balkanisation of China" of Qing China, and forward to today's western effect to separate Xinjiang and Tibet from "China Proper". And also seperation/independence of Taiwan from China.

Again nothing personal.

Bing Chatbot's complete reply:-
The term “China Proper” has a complex historical context and has been used by some Western writers to refer to the traditional “core” regions of China. Let’s delve into its origins and why it can be controversial:

  1. Origins and Usage:
    • The term “China Proper” was first used during the Manchu-led Qing dynasty. It aimed to distinguish between the historical “Han lands” (regions predominantly inhabited by the Han ethnic majority) and the “frontier” regions where non-Han minorities and foreign immigrants resided.
    • It referred to the original area of Chinese civilization, often associated with the Central Plain in the North China Plain.
    • Another definition pointed to the Eighteen Provinces of the Qing dynasty.
  2. Controversy and Colonialist Connotations:
    • The expression “China Proper” lacks a direct translation in the Chinese language due to differences in terminology used by the Qing.
    • Even today, the term remains controversial, especially in mainland China.
    • Scholars debate its appropriateness, considering issues related to territorial claims and ethnic politics.
    • The concept of “China Proper” perpetuates a distinction between the “core” and “periphery,” which can evoke colonialist thinking.
  3. Outer China:
    • The counterpart to “China Proper” is often referred to as “Outer China.”
    • Outer China includes regions like Dzungaria, Tarim Basin, Gobi Desert, Tibetan Plateau, Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau, and Manchuria.
    • These areas were historically inhabited by non-Han ethnic groups and experienced different cultural and linguistic shifts.
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..
 
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M

Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
Santamaria said:
And, in the case of Japan and South Korea participating, can China count on North Korea and Russia participating to oppose those 2 countries?
Specially taking into consideration how bad relation between Russia and Japan has become, Russia could put pressure the island of Hokkaido
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Russia and North Korea don't need to participate directly. If plaaf planes can fly over Russian held outer Manchuria or north Korea, it's a lot easier to target Tokyo directly, rather than going there from the mainland. And as Russia doesn't have many assets there, there isn't much that Japan can strike in retaliation. Ideally, the Ukraine war would still be ongoing at that time so Russia would be fully aligned with China

It'll be important to ensure that there's no safe space in Asia from where American troops can be based
 
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