At the end of the day it will always be who has the means to achieve their goals and to do so against hostile parties (especially against armed opponents). Given how much the US has made the entire world an ideological battleground it will in the end boomerang right back at them.I wouldn't put any credence into these polls. When the war starts, people's wishes and desires become irrelevant anyway. As an interesting comparison, here are the results of a survey which was conducted in Ukraine at the end of 2021. Back then, only 1/3 of Ukrainians said they would put up an armed resistance if Russia invaded.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
The Philippines is USELESS MILITARILY and YOU should know this since you've also lived in that archipelago (if my assumption is correct). I also know people that serve in that country's military past and present. The training, arming, investments in infrastructures and logistical training required for a supposed battle against China do not exist. And if the money or whatever money the PH military get, most of it gets VACUUMED by the VERY CORRUPT MILITARY LEADERS/General officers depriving its military from that investment. I have never been impressed with that country's military or its achievement past, present, and future. If past indicators and history are the basis of future outcome then the PHIL usefulness in a potential god awful war in ASIA they will simply be as good as dead.
As for India, they are doing what they do best: TRYING TO BECOME A PLAYER IN THE WORLD STAGE AND UPSTAGE CHINA whenever possible and feasible.
Looking at the conflicts in Ukraine and US-Houthi strikes, I'm starting to feel a little anxious about a Taiwan scenario. In Ukraine, Russia did not have success in initial airstrikes targeting Ukrainian military infrastructure. Similarly, US strikes on Houthi missiles sites has had limited success. Why is it so hard to destroy enemy missile and radar sites in the early stages of a conflict? It wouldn't be surprising if China run into similar problems in a Taiwan scenario.
Thoughts?
Thoughts?
Look at Desert Storm. On the offensive you don't need a first strike to be fast, just stealthy. US opened up with AH-64 helicopters sneaking in low to hit Iraqi radars to kick open a 30 km wide corridor.
Once you kick the door, then you need speed to follow up and hit them before they recover.
Mugin-5 style drones are perfect for this. Flying at 10 m over the water, they'll be under the radar for most of the way, then hit presighted targets at airports, radars, etc. They have 1000+ km range.
Then once the initial radars are blinded, fast SRBMs to hit time sensitive targets before recovery will help. Then cruise missiles to clean up harder fixed infrastructure.
You don't need to get everything. Once you have a sufficient advantage in planes your air to air should suppress enemy airpower and SEAD should clean up the rest.
Ukraine had excellent air defense until this year. Russia had mediocre airstrike capability with inadequate SEAD and low on cost efficient guided bombs.
Houthi is special in the sense they are hardly using anything sophisticated, so bombing them is useless. In other words, China can take out the Taiwanese high end missile systems, but the low end system will persist. China should plan accordingly.
I don’t think any operarios of the Deserr Storm has validity to extract lessons when fighting against a decent adversary.
Dessert Storm is equivalent to a situation where Russia and China decides to attack Kazakhstan or Mongolia.
The discrepancy of forces was in that level. Iraq was sanctioned, has old weapons, no support from a high power, and US/NATO were all im (even paying iraquí officials). And Iraq was nowhere near to Ukriane in level of air defences.
Moreover they are totally different conflicts.
Russia could have suppressed all air defence of Ukraine, but it may have costed all their Su34, 80% of their Su35 and a substantial part of its Tu22M. Then what if NATO intervene.
Ukraine for US is just a mean to destroy Russian weapons.
Taiwan scenery would be the same. Taiwan would try to impose heavy casualties to the Chinese air force to put them in disadvantage against U.S.
They operate the radar in dark mode, only activate when they shoot, rest of file in passive mode. Also they would receive intel and so on from us
Key thing though is that the PLA has access to lower cost drones and munitions that are even cheaper than the low-end Taiwan missile systems and with sufficient quantities that it would more closely resemble US mass bombing raids over Japan than anything like the Russian or Houthis are doing.
Flying below radar horizon like the first kick in Desert Storm stops detection unless 1 of 2 things happen:
1. Taiwan keeps AWAC patrol 24/7 indefinitely. They have 5 AWAC planes.
2. Taiwan discovers how to use radar to see through the earth.
Iraq in 1991 had about 1/12 the population of US and 1/30 the GDP.
Taiwan has 1/60 the population of China and 1/30 the GDP.
Ukraine has 1/3 the population of Russia and 1/10 the GDP.
A Taiwan conflict has a similar comprehensive power discrepancy as the destruction of Iraq, while the Russo-Ukrainian conflict is more like a conflict between China vs. Japan (Japan: 1/10 the population of China, 1/4 the GDP).
First strike prioritizing stealth, is particularly controversial? Is there any reason for this to be false?
I assume that a Taiwan conflict will begin with operational surprise belonging to mainland China. That is, I assume no strategic surprise (some sort of military conflict is coming 'soon') but only operational surprise (we don't know the scale or exact timing of any particular military maneuver). I don't think this is particularly controversial either. Constant freedom of navigation exercises around Taiwan, constant CBGs going out to sea, shooting a few missiles once in a while, etc. all normalize high PLA readiness.
That way, all that's needed is a short surge of readiness rather than a 'cold start'. In such a position, there will be a time where the PLA reaches maximum readiness while Taiwanese are still ramping up from a cold start, as has been seen in their own 2022 response exercises.
That is the time to strike with a stealthy strike. A few hours vs. a few minutes is not that important when talking about days of operational preparation.
Then the timeline after the first strike is condensed. And that is the phase where time sensitive high speed munitions are to be used.
Russia lacked enough timely satellite reconnaissance to confirm targets, and accurate satnav to hit them. I doubt China would have the same problem with that. On the other hand, Russia had a huge amount of cruise missiles, and thus far I haven't seen evidence of China having the same. But who knows.
Another problem is that in Taiwan there are airbases inside mountains and things like that. So that would require bombs large enough to close those airbases.
lcloo
Captain
The short distance between Taiwan islands and Mainland Fujian coast favors massive waves of drone attacks. Imagine several hundred waves of drone flying like swarms of explosive locusts on ROC radar sites, SAM sites etc. Each waves could consist of more than 100 drones.
Just like ww2 scenario where hundreds of bombers black out the sky on their way to Nazi Germany, thousands of low cost loitering suicide drones, supported by obeservation drones and EW drones, hovering over the sky in Taiwan island can destroy not only the defensive positions but also the morale of ROC troops.
Fighting hordes of mechanical robotic enemy without seeing their human operator is so sci-fi, but the reality is China already has such technology, they only need to invest heavily and which I believe they do.
Just like ww2 scenario where hundreds of bombers black out the sky on their way to Nazi Germany, thousands of low cost loitering suicide drones, supported by obeservation drones and EW drones, hovering over the sky in Taiwan island can destroy not only the defensive positions but also the morale of ROC troops.
Fighting hordes of mechanical robotic enemy without seeing their human operator is so sci-fi, but the reality is China already has such technology, they only need to invest heavily and which I believe they do.
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