PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Santamaria

Junior Member
Registered Member
Flying below radar horizon like the first kick in Desert Storm stops detection unless 1 of 2 things happen:

1. Taiwan keeps AWAC patrol 24/7 indefinitely. They have 5 AWAC planes.
2. Taiwan discovers how to use radar to see through the earth.

Iraq in 1991 had about 1/12 the population of US and 1/30 the GDP.
Taiwan has 1/60 the population of China and 1/30 the GDP.
Ukraine has 1/3 the population of Russia and 1/10 the GDP.

A Taiwan conflict has a similar comprehensive power discrepancy as the destruction of Iraq, while the Russo-Ukrainian conflict is more like a conflict between China vs. Japan (Japan: 1/10 the population of China, 1/4 the GDP).

First strike prioritizing stealth, is particularly controversial? Is there any reason for this to be false?

I assume that a Taiwan conflict will begin with operational surprise belonging to mainland China. That is, I assume no strategic surprise (some sort of military conflict is coming 'soon') but only operational surprise (we don't know the scale or exact timing of any particular military maneuver). I don't think this is particularly controversial either. Constant freedom of navigation exercises around Taiwan, constant CBGs going out to sea, shooting a few missiles once in a while, etc. all normalize high PLA readiness.

That way, all that's needed is a short surge of readiness rather than a 'cold start'. In such a position, there will be a time where the PLA reaches maximum readiness while Taiwanese are still ramping up from a cold start, as has been seen in their own 2022 response exercises.

That is the time to strike with a stealthy strike. A few hours vs. a few minutes is not that important when talking about days of operational preparation.

Then the timeline after the first strike is condensed. And that is the phase where time sensitive high speed munitions are to be used.
It is no so simple. If Taiwan follow the example of Ukraine, they will do the next:

Radars of air defence in passive mode until the plane is seing visually, then activate and shoot. This minimise the radiation of the air defence and make more difficult the suppresion.

Air defenses will be placed close to civilian buildings. And in Taiwan those civilian buildings will be full of chinese civilians. China faces there the same problem than Russia in Ukraine. Russians consider ukranians as their people, chinese consider taiwanese as their people. Civilian loses are more painful in this wys

There will be thousands mandpads from the top of civilian buildings to shoot at planes flying low. Again to fireback to the people with manpads will be painful because they are in civilian buildings full of your people

The goal will not be to "win" but to inflict maximum damage to Chinese air force, to make chinese society to feel bad to kill its people and to maximise the anti chinese narrative.

In my view China has some advantages against Russia. Taiwan does not have so many air defences as Ukraine, they lack fanatical groups like Azov, and the land is small.
But the overall picture will be the same
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
Nothing personal, not aiming at you as I have seen many times people outside China, mostly Westerners, like to use the term "China Proper". This is controversial term many Chinese do not like. People in China never use this term.

The Bing AI Chatbot replied to my enquiry on this term :-
"The concept of “China Proper” perpetuates a distinction between the “core” and “periphery,” which can evoke colonialist thinking."

It reminded Chinese people the thinking of the West colonialist of "balkanisation of China" of Qing China, and forward to today's western effect to separate Xinjiang and Tibet from "China Proper". And also seperation/independence of Taiwan from China.

Again nothing personal.

Bing Chatbot's complete reply:-
The term “China Proper” has a complex historical context and has been used by some Western writers to refer to the traditional “core” regions of China. Let’s delve into its origins and why it can be controversial:


  1. Origins and Usage:
    • The term “China Proper” was first used during the Manchu-led Qing dynasty. It aimed to distinguish between the historical “Han lands” (regions predominantly inhabited by the Han ethnic majority) and the “frontier” regions where non-Han minorities and foreign immigrants resided.
    • It referred to the original area of Chinese civilization, often associated with the Central Plain in the North China Plain.
    • Another definition pointed to the Eighteen Provinces of the Qing dynasty.
  2. Controversy and Colonialist Connotations:
    • The expression “China Proper” lacks a direct translation in the Chinese language due to differences in terminology used by the Qing.
    • Even today, the term remains controversial, especially in mainland China.
    • Scholars debate its appropriateness, considering issues related to territorial claims and ethnic politics.
    • The concept of “China Proper” perpetuates a distinction between the “core” and “periphery,” which can evoke colonialist thinking.
  3. Outer China:
    • The counterpart to “China Proper” is often referred to as “Outer China.”
    • Outer China includes regions like Dzungaria, Tarim Basin, Gobi Desert, Tibetan Plateau, Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau, and Manchuria.
    • These areas were historically inhabited by non-Han ethnic groups and experienced different cultural and linguistic shifts.
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..
This sort of language "China proper, Lunar New Year" etc.. the persistent attempt at sowing racial discord amongst the ethnic groups in China and playing off the HAN insecurity and superiority along with the interpretation of Chinese history, cultural practices, languages that are exposed to the west and by western "experts" is about CONTROLLING, SHAPING THE INFORMATION NARRATIVE. The understanding of race and the interpretation of race itself came from Western lense thereby strengthening the grievances, racial animus, perceived superiority of others over the rest that have permeated our own thinking that most Chinese who assumed/frame of being Chinese is through HAN ethnic stock image creating the very negative perception and othering of the 55 ethnic Chinese people that are just as Chinese in China. Hence, the separation and longing to have their own identity by Uyghur separatist, Tibetan separatist, Hong Kong supremacist, Taiwanese separatists, HAN CHAUVINIST, Japanese loving Hanjians, White worshipping Hanjians etc.

If we recall, the Chinese government found out that the book being taught in Xinjiang was laced with lies, half-truths thereby further complicating the already tenuous situation in that province. The work was malicious and people who were responsible for that book(s) were in collusion with outside powers to fulfill their own agendas.

The massacre between the two ethnic groups (Hutu, Tutsi) Rwanda illustrate the pervertedness and luancy of how the west (BELGIANS) infected the mindset of those people telling one group of its supposed superiority while the other blamed for their racial inferiority.

Information warfare, cognitive warfare, psychological warfare, etc.. have been used against many countries including China for decades with great success.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
It is no so simple. If Taiwan follow the example of Ukraine, they will do the next:

Radars of air defence in passive mode until the plane is seing visually, then activate and shoot. This minimise the radiation of the air defence and make more difficult the suppresion.

Air defenses will be placed close to civilian buildings. And in Taiwan those civilian buildings will be full of chinese civilians. China faces there the same problem than Russia in Ukraine. Russians consider ukranians as their people, chinese consider taiwanese as their people. Civilian loses are more painful in this wys

There will be thousands mandpads from the top of civilian buildings to shoot at planes flying low. Again to fireback to the people with manpads will be painful because they are in civilian buildings full of your people

The goal will not be to "win" but to inflict maximum damage to Chinese air force, to make chinese society to feel bad to kill its people and to maximise the anti chinese narrative.

In my view China has some advantages against Russia. Taiwan does not have so many air defences as Ukraine, they lack fanatical groups like Azov, and the land is small.
But the overall picture will be the same
Huge difference between Ukraine and Taiwan here.

Ukraine is big. Taiwan is small.

to reach a large list of targets even for standoff missiles in Ukraine, Russian planes have to overfly other parts of Ukraine. Those parts can have guys with MANPADS, hidden SAM sites, etc. This is why seeing planes visually even works.

Taiwan is smaller than Donbass alone and is an island. Releasing a large variety of munitions is done over the strait or even inside China itself. Flight time for drones and cruise missiles is also over the ocean. There's no Taiwanese SAM sites in the ocean. Not even their navy: their navy doesn't have VLS capable ships or AESA radars.

The other big difference is that unlike Russia and Ukraine this isn't the first time China has fought Taiwan. China (PRC) fought Taiwan (ROC) for independence and won. This was in living memory. China won a major amphibious battle (Hainan) after ROC became Taiwan. And in the civil war tons of people died. It was seen as worthwhile to liberate China from the oppression of the corrupt capitalists.

Since the end of the mainland phase of the civil war, Taiwan has conducted multiple terrorist attacks against China including bombing a commercial airliner to try and kill the Premier of China, Zhou Enlai (key word: Kashmir Princess).

They don't give a shit about civilians, and also have conscription. While the PLA has high standards of conduct some accidents happen.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
turns out that the government has already taken the initiative of escalating by escorting fishing boats with the coast guard. Taiwan is already jumping to authorizing lethal force. If they were rational, they would realize doing so is very stupid.

If they were rational, they'd also remember that in 2022 there were drones flying into their field headquarters taking photos of their battle plans lmao.
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They were also ineffective and slow.

Yet they're still talking big.
Very good. Chinese fishermen should work with the Chinese coast guard when doing dangerous things like this. Sail right up to Kinmen with our coast guard shadowing. If approached by the ROC coast guard, tell them we're not moving because we're a Chinese ship in Chinese territory. If they dare escalate, let our professional forces handle it. Forget about lethal force; they wouldn't even dare flash their water cannon when being stared down by the Chinese coast guard. Bring in our Zhaotou class if we really wanna push the intimidation factor. Hell, make another pair and permanently station at least 1 in the area.

And this incident may lead to yet another normalization curtailing ROC claims and de facto control by making it commonplace and unpatrollable when Chinese ships sail right up to Kinmen. Bravo to the CCP.
 

grulle

Junior Member
Registered Member
Putin would've been salivating at something like this happening in Ukraine-Russia. Perfect excuse to invade lol. I would argue that the time is not right yet for China to invade. If the time was right, and something like this happened, it would be the perfect excuse lol.
 

montyp165

Senior Member
Huge difference between Ukraine and Taiwan here.

Ukraine is big. Taiwan is small.

to reach a large list of targets even for standoff missiles in Ukraine, Russian planes have to overfly other parts of Ukraine. Those parts can have guys with MANPADS, hidden SAM sites, etc. This is why seeing planes visually even works.

Taiwan is smaller than Donbass alone and is an island. Releasing a large variety of munitions is done over the strait or even inside China itself. Flight time for drones and cruise missiles is also over the ocean. There's no Taiwanese SAM sites in the ocean. Not even their navy: their navy doesn't have VLS capable ships or AESA radars.

The other big difference is that unlike Russia and Ukraine this isn't the first time China has fought Taiwan. China (PRC) fought Taiwan (ROC) for independence and won. This was in living memory. China won a major amphibious battle (Hainan) after ROC became Taiwan. And in the civil war tons of people died. It was seen as worthwhile to liberate China from the oppression of the corrupt capitalists.

Since the end of the mainland phase of the civil war, Taiwan has conducted multiple terrorist attacks against China including bombing a commercial airliner to try and kill the Premier of China, Zhou Enlai (key word: Kashmir Princess).

They don't give a shit about civilians, and also have conscription. While the PLA has high standards of conduct some accidents happen.
As an addendum, once shooting starts for real the PRC will fully commit to achieving their objectives by any means necessary, especially when dealing with ideological hostiles. That's something western observers really don't understand as they are far too used to the western lying and gaslighting to the rest of world.
 
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