It is no so simple. If Taiwan follow the example of Ukraine, they will do the next:Flying below radar horizon like the first kick in Desert Storm stops detection unless 1 of 2 things happen:
1. Taiwan keeps AWAC patrol 24/7 indefinitely. They have 5 AWAC planes.
2. Taiwan discovers how to use radar to see through the earth.
Iraq in 1991 had about 1/12 the population of US and 1/30 the GDP.
Taiwan has 1/60 the population of China and 1/30 the GDP.
Ukraine has 1/3 the population of Russia and 1/10 the GDP.
A Taiwan conflict has a similar comprehensive power discrepancy as the destruction of Iraq, while the Russo-Ukrainian conflict is more like a conflict between China vs. Japan (Japan: 1/10 the population of China, 1/4 the GDP).
First strike prioritizing stealth, is particularly controversial? Is there any reason for this to be false?
I assume that a Taiwan conflict will begin with operational surprise belonging to mainland China. That is, I assume no strategic surprise (some sort of military conflict is coming 'soon') but only operational surprise (we don't know the scale or exact timing of any particular military maneuver). I don't think this is particularly controversial either. Constant freedom of navigation exercises around Taiwan, constant CBGs going out to sea, shooting a few missiles once in a while, etc. all normalize high PLA readiness.
That way, all that's needed is a short surge of readiness rather than a 'cold start'. In such a position, there will be a time where the PLA reaches maximum readiness while Taiwanese are still ramping up from a cold start, as has been seen in their own 2022 response exercises.
That is the time to strike with a stealthy strike. A few hours vs. a few minutes is not that important when talking about days of operational preparation.
Then the timeline after the first strike is condensed. And that is the phase where time sensitive high speed munitions are to be used.
Radars of air defence in passive mode until the plane is seing visually, then activate and shoot. This minimise the radiation of the air defence and make more difficult the suppresion.
Air defenses will be placed close to civilian buildings. And in Taiwan those civilian buildings will be full of chinese civilians. China faces there the same problem than Russia in Ukraine. Russians consider ukranians as their people, chinese consider taiwanese as their people. Civilian loses are more painful in this wys
There will be thousands mandpads from the top of civilian buildings to shoot at planes flying low. Again to fireback to the people with manpads will be painful because they are in civilian buildings full of your people
The goal will not be to "win" but to inflict maximum damage to Chinese air force, to make chinese society to feel bad to kill its people and to maximise the anti chinese narrative.
In my view China has some advantages against Russia. Taiwan does not have so many air defences as Ukraine, they lack fanatical groups like Azov, and the land is small.
But the overall picture will be the same