PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Sardaukar20

Captain
Registered Member
Opinion from the Global Times about Lindsey Graham's threat to China on the Taiwan issue.
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US Senator Lindsey Graham, who has always been extremely anti-China, has once again made shocking remarks, declaring that he would work with lawmakers from both parties to "draft pre-invasion sanctions from hell to impose on China if they take action to seize Taiwan." He also claimed to "create a robust defense supplemental for Taiwan."
Lindsey Graham, perhaps one of the most vile of the US hawks had basically telegraphed to everyone how the US intends to play its part in a Taiwan conflict. This kinda supports my suspicion, which is that the US does not intend to fight with China directly over Taiwan. These chicken hawks want a Taiwan conflict, but not WWIII. A Taiwan conflict would give the them the excuse carry out their 2 main agendas for China which is:

1) To throw their "sanctions from hell" at China to hopefully wreck the Chinese economy, steal Chinese assets on Western soils, and wipe out US debt with China. The sanctions from hell could also include soft blockade measures on China. They ultimately want to collapse the Chinese economy, and by extension, the Chinese government.

2) To have Taiwan fight and die on America's behalf to weaken China. They want to supply Taiwan with sufficient weapons, ammunition, money, and intelligence to hurt the PLA as much as possible. They have been wargaming, counting on a reckless amphibious invasion by the PLA where the Taiwanese can shoot at them at will, and inflict massive losses to the PLA. They assume that the PLA have some idiotic timeline to invade Taiwan because of some political agenda demanded by Xi Jinping and the "evil CCP". Basically, the Americans hope that Taiwan can defeat the PLA in the Taiwan Straits, thanks to American Wunderwaffes and intelligence. The objective is to inflict as much damage as possible to the PLA without costing any American servicemen lives.

Off course there are the other secondary bonuses the US wishes to get from a Taiwan conflict. Such as:
1) Loss of innocence for China.
2) Loss of prestige for China.
3) Being able to turn countries against China, especially the Global South nations.
4) Have China bogged down in a war, thereby disrupting its economy.
5) A big bonanza for US defense firms.

What if China ends up winning the Taiwan conflict? Well the US would just simply abandon Taiwan and make China pay the highest price possible before the inevitable reunification. There is no formal defense treaty between the island of Taiwan and the US. Its only between the ROC and the US and that expired in 1979. So there is no obligation for the US to "defend Taiwan" from mainland China. The US, for all their tough talk does not want WWIII with China or Russia. The American elites do want war with China and Russia, but they want someone else to commit to that war.
 
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Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
China doesn't necessarily need to put that much energy in recalling traitors. Just focus on the loyal Taiwanese who know what to do once we decide to kick the ROC out.

Remember there use to be millions of landlords who were collaborators with invaders and exploiters of their surroundings. Did we need to win them over with flowers and chocolates?

There's 23 million people inside the province and like 1.3 billion in the rest of the country. China IS still a democracy even if 1 party has super majority dominance due to historical reasons. The will of the majority and the stability of the country go first.

People have short memories and easily forget things once normalcy sets in. Beijing should reward the loyal and deal with the rest as the landlords were dealt with. Nobody in modern China has any "trauma" from those events.
Opinion from the Global Times about Lindsey Graham's threat to China on the Taiwan issue.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Lindsey Graham, perhaps one of the most vile of the US hawks had basically telegraphed to everyone how the US intends to play its part in a Taiwan conflict. This kinda supports my suspicion, which is that the US does not intend to fight with China directly over Taiwan. These chicken hawks want a Taiwan conflict, but not WWIII. A Taiwan conflict would give the them the excuse carry out their 2 main agendas for China which is:

1) To throw their "sanctions from hell" at China to hopefully wreck the Chinese economy, steal Chinese assets on Western soils, and wipe out US debt with China. The sanctions from hell could also include soft blockade measures on China. They ultimately want to collapse the Chinese economy, and by extension, the Chinese government.

2) To have Taiwan fight and die on America's behalf to weaken China. They want to supply Taiwan with sufficient weapons, ammunition, money, and intelligence to hurt the PLA as much as possible. They have been wargaming, counting on a reckless amphibious invasion by the PLA where the Taiwanese can shoot at them at will, and inflict massive losses to the PLA. They assume that the PLA have some idiotic timeline to invade Taiwan because of some political agenda demanded by Xi Jinping and the "evil CCP". Basically, the Americans hope that Taiwan can defeat the PLA in the Taiwan Straits, thanks to American Wunderwaffes and intelligence. The objective is to inflict as much damage to the PLA without costing any American servicemen lives.
Then that more or less represents total surrender of US claims inside China. The power balance between Beijing and the KMT is likely 10-20 times greater than that between Kiev and the Donbass. Without a full scale US invasion to support the separatists, there will be complete wipe out within days to weeks.

Likewise, US can't do more than token sanctions, because China can seize more US property than the other way around. So there may be a period where we take some irrelevant companies from eachother, but it's going to end rather fast and without long term disruptions.

It is much better for global peace if US can give up on claims. To threaten takeover of a nuclear power's core territory is going way too far. If US moderates it's claims, military competition can be taken into much safer domains, like the middle east, Africa et al.
 

pevade

Junior Member
Registered Member
Opinion from the Global Times about Lindsey Graham's threat to China on the Taiwan issue.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Lindsey Graham, perhaps one of the most vile of the US hawks had basically telegraphed to everyone how the US intends to play its part in a Taiwan conflict. This kinda supports my suspicion, which is that the US does not intend to fight with China directly over Taiwan. These chicken hawks want a Taiwan conflict, but not WWIII. A Taiwan conflict would give the them the excuse carry out their 2 main agendas for China which is:

1) To throw their "sanctions from hell" at China to hopefully wreck the Chinese economy, steal Chinese assets on Western soils, and wipe out US debt with China. The sanctions from hell could also include soft blockade measures on China. They ultimately want to collapse the Chinese economy, and by extension, the Chinese government.

2) To have Taiwan fight and die on America's behalf to weaken China. They want to supply Taiwan with sufficient weapons, ammunition, money, and intelligence to hurt the PLA as much as possible. They have been wargaming, counting on a reckless amphibious invasion by the PLA where the Taiwanese can shoot at them at will, and inflict massive losses to the PLA. They assume that the PLA have some idiotic timeline to invade Taiwan because of some political agenda demanded by Xi Jinping and the "evil CCP". Basically, the Americans hope that Taiwan can defeat the PLA in the Taiwan Straits, thanks to American Wunderwaffes and intelligence. The objective is to inflict as much damage as possible to the PLA without costing any American servicemen lives.

Off course there are the other secondary bonuses the US wishes to get from a Taiwan conflict. Such as:
1) Loss of innocence for China.
2) Loss of prestige for China.
3) Being able to turn countries against China, especially the Global South nations.
4) Have China bogged down in a war, thereby disrupting its economy.
5) A big bonanza for US defense firms.

What if China ends up winning the Taiwan conflict? Well the US would just simply abandon Taiwan and make China pay the highest price possible before the inevitable reunification. There is no formal defense treaty between the island of Taiwan and the US. Its only between the ROC and the US and that expired in 1979. So there is no obligation for the US to "defend Taiwan" from mainland China. The US, for all their tough talk does not want WWIII with China or Russia. The American elites do want war with China and Russia, but they want someone else to commit to that war.
Lol, then they would be putting it on paper for everyone to read exactly what they would do, including China. And China would simply slowly derisk from the consequences of said sanctions before actually starting the invasion. It would be a monumental self-own and an exercise in mental retardation.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
>seek decisive battle with the PLA
Like Japan tried against the US at Pearl Harbour?
You do realize that China can build 3-4 US navy per year right? and those ship will be more modern and advanced by US ships.
There is no way for the US to win a conventional war against China now or in the foreseeable future.

But they won’t have fire extinguishers so American warships will still have superior damage control.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
In case of Operation AR over Taiwan, significant ISR supporting effort to rebel forces on Taiwan by the US&LC forces must be expected. This shouldn't be a surprise for literally anyone.

Besides, even if the US&LC forces decides that not going to an open military war with China, they can certainly, if not absolutely, seriously attempt at interfering and disrupting Operation AR in the electromagnetic (EM) domain. Intensive, complex and consistent EM attacks against PLA radar, sensor, communication and guidance systems by US&LC EW assets in the IndoPac region must be anticipated and be prepared for, as those assets can stick around and stay just beyond the no-go zone around Taiwan set up by the PLA.

Despite this, even with both ISR supports to rebel forces on the island and EW attacks against the PLA by the US&LC forces during Operation AR - Should the US&LC desires to remain out of outright direct military conflict with China, it would be prudent for China to avoid triggering one as best as possible.

The most important objective for a successful Operation AR, beyond the complete reunification of Taiwan under Beijing rule should be the limiting of the scale, duration and intensity of the operation. As long as the avenue of avoiding a wider IndoPac war (if not an outright WW3) can be avoided between China and the US&LC is available, such objective should be pursued as best as possible. Though, as long as no live weapon trigger is pulled on both sides, it is absolutely okay for the PLA to go aggressive against those US&LC assets that are snooping around Taiwan, with the goal of making their operations in the vicinity of the theater of war become as unsafe and risky to their lives and assets as possible.

However, not seeking for an outright direct war with the US&LC does not equal to not preparing for one. That means the PLA must be put to the DEFCON 2 or even DEFCON 1 status throughout the entire duration of Operation AR, with the entire population and economy of China being partially, if not fully mobilized to support the war effort.
 
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Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
I don't exactly see where US tactical ISR would be a major factor though. The main issues facing the KMT is that they start off encircled inside China, with massive enemy firepower all around them.

Once power and after that food & water runs out, how does US even maintain lines to share ISR and what impact does the data they could share have?

If US calls off any plans of invasion, they're better off not trying to share ISR too hard and giving China more excuses to harass/economically punish them. What would be more useful for them would be to provide media platforms to spread sympathy about Taiwan and create protest in the UN.

Sure, it's a given that they'll try to share some of the more obvious heads ups with the local resistence fighters, such as large bombing raid locations, moving of major government naval assets etc. But trying to plug each fighter's weapons into US coordination... It can't be achieved, and trying to do so vastly increases escalation and will not affect China's defense plans at all, or only highly negligably.
 

Laviduce

Junior Member
Registered Member

Xi Tells Biden to His Face: China WILL Take Taiwan! How Did We Get Here?​

by Paul Lewandowski (Combat Veteran Reacts)

"At a recent meeting Chinese president Xi Jinping told US president Biden to his face that China is going to be invading Taiwan. Now

how do you get to this point where you just tell the leader of the Free World that you are going to be annexing another country? Well

it's not as crazy as you think and frankly the craziness might have just started with the United States. I'm Paul; US Army Combat veteran.

Let's break down exactly what's going on here..."





Business Insider Article:

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"Chinese leader Xi Jinping told President Joe Biden that China intended to take control of Taiwan in a face-to-face meeting last month,
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The report, citing three former and current US officials, said that the remarks were made during a meeting on the fringes of the Apec
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While official readouts of the meeting emphasized the common ground the leaders found on issues such as the climate crisis, the report indicated that long-standing tensions over the de facto autonomy of Taiwan also surfaced.

Xi bluntly asserted the Chinese right to rule Taiwan and said it would prefer to take it peacefully not by force, according to NBC.
The Chinese leader reportedly denied US intelligence claims that China
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saying the timing had not been decided..."
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Despite this, even with both ISR supports to rebel forces on the island and EW attacks against the PLA by the US&LC forces during Operation AR - Should the US&LC desires to remain out of outright direct military conflict with China, it would be prudent for China to avoid triggering one as best as possible.
There is no reason for China to tolerate Western ISR support to rebel forces. Defeating the Hegemon means the rebel will surrender, even if PLA doesn’t land any troops on the island
 

montyp165

Senior Member
There is no reason for China to tolerate Western ISR support to rebel forces. Defeating the Hegemon means the rebel will surrender, even if PLA doesn’t land any troops on the island

Aye, if anything any direct intervention by US forces will result in a true total war as China would have not only full justification to counterattack, but also escalatory superiority as there would be no reason to hold back from supporting everybody else already facing down US forces like Russia, Iran and even North Korea who have their own bone to pick with the US.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member

Xi Tells Biden to His Face: China WILL Take Taiwan! How Did We Get Here?​

by Paul Lewandowski (Combat Veteran Reacts)

"At a recent meeting Chinese president Xi Jinping told US president Biden to his face that China is going to be invading Taiwan. Now

how do you get to this point where you just tell the leader of the Free World that you are going to be annexing another country? Well

it's not as crazy as you think and frankly the craziness might have just started with the United States. I'm Paul; US Army Combat veteran.

Let's break down exactly what's going on here..."





Business Insider Article:

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"Chinese leader Xi Jinping told President Joe Biden that China intended to take control of Taiwan in a face-to-face meeting last month,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


The report, citing three former and current US officials, said that the remarks were made during a meeting on the fringes of the Apec
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


While official readouts of the meeting emphasized the common ground the leaders found on issues such as the climate crisis, the report indicated that long-standing tensions over the de facto autonomy of Taiwan also surfaced.

Xi bluntly asserted the Chinese right to rule Taiwan and said it would prefer to take it peacefully not by force, according to NBC.
The Chinese leader reportedly denied US intelligence claims that China
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
saying the timing had not been decided..."
Delusional, it's US that's telling the leader of the most powerful country in the world they want to annex a major chunk of their territories.

China is only protecting itself.
 
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