PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Blitzo

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
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TK3600 said:
I just want to say I agree @Blitzo . A carefully telegraphed intent, warning, escalation, ultimatum can allow China to shoot first without appearing out of blue. It doesnt have to be a surprise attack like Pearl Harbor.
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If such a thing were to happen, I suspect the US public/media would still treat it in a manner that portrays it as underhanded, and use it to rally around the flag etc.

And more importantly, the preferred option for the PLA would be if the US was able to signal to the PRC that they will not intervene in a conflict and make material signals to show that sincerity -- i.e.: a PLA strike against US forces in the region is obviously not something to take lightly.

However, if there is ahigh risk of US involvement, and if the PLA carries out a Taiwan operation while US forces and bases in the region are unmolested and allowed to build up forces overall, then that gives initiative to the US as well as offers the ability for the US to concentrate and optimize the redeployment of its forces.
 
vincent

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Keep a PLA force on the east coast of the Taiwan Island require a long logistic train that can be attacked by American SSNs and long range bombers

If I am the Chinese leader, I wouldn't choose to attack American and its vassals' bases as the first choice. I would only attack them when it is obvious the US and its vassals are building up their forces.
 
B

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
vincent said:
Keep a PLA force on the east coast of the Taiwan Island require a long logistic train that can be attacked by American SSNs and long range bombers

If I am the Chinese leader, I wouldn't choose to attack American and its vassals' bases as the first choice. I would only attack them when it is obvious the US and its vassals are building up their forces.
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The logistics train is much much longer for the Americans.

Bombers sure but SSN need to get quite close, into regions where China has very strong defenses. And bombers by themselves cannot complete the kill chain necessary to inflict major damage.

Obviously it is needed for China to put forces in the Easternmost border as well, if nothing just to act as a shield against potential US sneak attack. However, this force shouldn't be the highest value task force. Smaller ships such as 054A can make up the bulk of a fleet used to enforce lockdown around the threatened regions.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Serb said:
Just to add on top of my previous post; It dawned on me that in little more than 10 years since Xi Jinping came into power in 2012, China's nominal GDP more than doubled. Not to mention historical record-setting multiplications of GDP even before then, never done before and likely never to be replicated again by anyone.

And what happened in the meantime? Not only did Taiwan not get closer to the mainland, but it got the most distant in history, with DPP stronger than ever, separatistic, pro-West, anti-CCP mainland, rhetoric stronger than ever, etc.

So, I'm sorry to say, but it looks like hoping that Taiwanese people will suddenly change their whole world views in the future, out of the blue, regarding mainland China, once some economic 'magical' number gets it, without any outside intervention, is major wishful thinking.

Yeah, you could say there is still a chance if the Chinese overall GDP per capita overtakes the Taiwanese, but most of us would be dead at that time, it's around 40 years away. Just imagine the difficulty of reaching the same standard of living for a 1.4 billion current base population of 24 million. It's easier to land on Mars.

And that's all because Taiwan's CIA masters who control the media on the island would always either hide or skew the Chinese accomplishments + as I said, the separation in the mindset of people is mostly about ideology caused by decades of Western brainwashing. So, the peaceful reunification to me looks like a pure dream.
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A key turning point will be when China is acknowledged as having a larger economy than the US in nominal terms. You won't be able to hide this, as it will be prominently discussed in US media.

At the moment, the average Taiwanese person understands that China is many times larger. They also believe that the US economy and US military is significantly larger than China, so the US can still save them.

But once China passes the US, there will be a reassessment in Taiwan.
 
Temstar

Temstar

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siegecrossbow said:
I’m confused. Didn’t MSM make a huge deal out of the fact that Xi promised that there is no plan for AR by 2027?
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Yes they did, from the same APEC event too:
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I think it's likely when asked about Taiwan Xi gave the same answer he's been saying over and over for years, something like "必须统一,也必然统一“ or "终将统一“ without giving a specific date. The message on this has been so consistent over the years that I can recall those phrases off the top of my head since they're repeated so often in domestic media. In fact after writing that I went to google and sure enough VOA Chinese quote those exact phrases:

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1703297600620.png

So the message hasn't changed. The only interesting thing is at first when APEC was happening western media spin it as "no plan for invasion" and now a month later then spin it in the opposite direction and say he meant invasion is immanent.

A better question is who put the media up to this and why.
 
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ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
vincent said:
That's at peace time, and China was too weak to take on the US.

Make no mistake, Western ISR will cost PLA lives and shouldn't be tolerated.
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US&LC ISR support to the rebels means jack if the receiver's side is destroyed, which is a variable that is mostly under PLA control.

Besides, China does not lack the means to interrupt, disrupt and curtail ISR connections between rebel forces and US&LC forces without going into direct conflict with them.

Also, I don't think that triggering WW3 and killing hundreds of millions, if not billions in the process - Just because the August 1st Building is incapable of weathering and minimizing PLA losses due to US&LC providing ISR support to the rebels on that Reddit island - Is a particularly good idea.
 
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vincent

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
ACuriousPLAFan said:
US&LC ISR support to the rebels means jack if the receiver's side is destroyed, which is a variable that is mostly under PLA control.

Besides, China does not lack the means to interrupt, disrupt and curtail ISR connections between rebel forces and US&LC forces without going into direct conflict with them.

Also, I don't think that triggering WW3 and killing hundreds of millions, if not billions in the process - Just because the August 1st Building is incapable of weathering and minimizing PLA losses due to US&LC providing ISR support to the rebels on that Reddit island - Is a particularly good idea.
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Look at the map. How many ECM planes are needed to flood the entire Island? The planes are vulnerable to attack too.

Russia lost plenty due to NATO ISR. Russia may not be that good at ECM but not not bad either.

The one who worry about starting WWIII should be the US, not China. If China initiated Civil War II, she should be prepared for the escalation.
 
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AndrewS

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Registered Member
MarKoz81 said:
US having 40% of world's industrial production before WW2 meant that e.g. in 1937 (source: League of Nations)

countrysteel production (m tonnes)share of global %oil production (m tonnes)share of global %
US51,438172,961,8
USSR17,713,127,89,9
Germany19,314,30,5-
UK13,19,80-
Japan5,84,30,3-
world135100279,9100
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We can quantify the present day situation as well in terms of industrial production.

As per the UN, China accounts for 31% of global manufacturing and the US is at 16%.
So roughly speaking, China is 2x the US

And it is manufacturing which is most relevant if we're looking at military/industrial potential.

Plus the UN figures don't account for manufacturing/producer purchasing power differences. If we do this, China's real level of industrial output is 67%+ higher than what the exchange rate suggests, and China is 3x the US in terms of actual manufacturing output.

Rationale below
acquisitiontalk.com/2019/01/how-large-is-military-spending-in-the-us-and-china/

Given that China has 4x the population of the USA, China having an manufacturing sector 3x larger is China underperforming. So we can reasonably expect China to trend upwards towards 4x in terms of manufactuting.
 
A

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
Biscuits said:
The logistics train is much much longer for the Americans.

Bombers sure but SSN need to get quite close, into regions where China has very strong defenses. And bombers by themselves cannot complete the kill chain necessary to inflict major damage.

Obviously it is needed for China to put forces in the Easternmost border as well, if nothing just to act as a shield against potential US sneak attack. However, this force shouldn't be the highest value task force. Smaller ships such as 054A can make up the bulk of a fleet used to enforce lockdown around the threatened regions.
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Anyway, PHL-16 with BRE8 could hit most of Taiwan... stocking missiles to do saturation of all targets of value is feasible. Taiwan strait would be closed and putting boots on the ground not that complicated.

Ships could go on the east side of the island to enforce lockdown but they could even stay in the Taiwan strait where enemy attack submarines cannot do their task to ensure troops and logistics transfer for covering the ground.

The question mark is how long will it take to cover the island shores with enough forces to control them and establish ground based air defences for these threats. Taiwan could become a giant ship that cannot sink with the transfer of airdefences. Getting rid of the forces in the center of Taiwan will take more time but after encirclement, not sure if morale will be high anyway.

ISR/ECM is a good asset but in how much time it will be a done deal on the ground ? US will not be able to land any forces on the island itself and bombing Taiwan is kinda counterproductive...
 
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GZDRefugee

GZDRefugee

Junior Member
Registered Member
Biscuits said:
The logistics train is much much longer for the Americans.

Bombers sure but SSN need to get quite close, into regions where China has very strong defenses. And bombers by themselves cannot complete the kill chain necessary to inflict major damage.

Obviously it is needed for China to put forces in the Easternmost border as well, if nothing just to act as a shield against potential US sneak attack. However, this force shouldn't be the highest value task force. Smaller ships such as 054A can make up the bulk of a fleet used to enforce lockdown around the threatened regions.
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I asked this before but never got an answer. What about the offensive deployment of naval mines East of Taiwan? What are China's capabilities in this strategy?
 
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