PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
Not really comparable, Ukraine and Russia feud is between 2 countries.
China has no plans to "attack" anyone on Taiwan, or it would have done so against the offender already. But it has a standing commitment to defend its own country, whether from foreign or domestic attack, and that includes in Taiwan.
President Xi is just repeating common sense to Americans, in a bid to deescalate.
supercat
Major
The US knows jack about China's plan. How can they know something that even China doesn't really know? It all depends on Taiwan's action. Or the US knows that Taiwan wants to declare independence in 2027? Is Taiwan really so stupid now that the Ukraine War has become a total fiasco for the US and NATO?
based on China's preparations, I am beginning to think that 2027 is still too early for it to make the move, 2029 would be more likely.
1. 2027 as we all know is the year of CCP leadership change. Xi probably will stay on for another term but everyone else is likely gone. leadership change at this time may not work well with starting a war for the first time in 40 years.
2. China's several major capability upgrades will not be completed in time for 2027. given that China can produce 100 J-20 per year, two years will mean the difference of 200 J-20, perhaps dozens of J-20S, and over 100 J-16. 004 has not begun sea trial now, and by 2027 it might not have worked out all the kinks to be fully combat effective, but by 2029 it will likely be ready with all of its designed capabilities materialized. same goes with sub forces, two years could mean the difference of 6 093B, which is significant. there are many other aspects such as development of doctrine, refinement of training etc that will take more than 3 years to perfect.
3. economically, China has a few projects underway that are unlikely to come to fruition in time for 2027. good example is railway through Thailand, or railway through uzbek and kyrgystan.
Pretty simple. They provoke the conflict in the first place.
The longer the US waits the less of a chance of winning they have. And they know it. The capabilities of the PLAN will continue to increase with time.
Without US meddling China would likely have peacefully reunified with Taiwan a long time ago.
That is a nice way to put it. To be even more confident I say wait until China PPP reaches 2x that of US. 2035 is my bet.
At this point I don't think China is ready yet. It takes time to get familiarize with the new equipment and training is time consuming.
Lol why would China need to "wait" until 2035? For what?
If China needs more military stuff, the easier solution is to double or quadruple the budget, not wait for the whole economy to double.
But to defend itself, China has all the equipment it needs today. That's why US is hesitant about attacking. And tbh, China has had it ever since they acquired a strategic nuclear arsenal.
To attack Taiwan is the same as attacking Califonia or St Petersburg. While China can and will prefer to use its conventional forces to hold the line against a potential US attack, if that doesn't work, they have all the reason to tactically nuke the aggressors. Don't need to wait until 2035 for that, that was true in 1990 as it is now.
What will happen entirely up to what direction the negotiations between Beijing and the KMT will take. I think we all prefer solutions that don't spill blood, but that is also up to the KMT itself.
I think Taiwan problem has 3 stages of strategic considerations:
Stage 3 is an issue. China is in middle of wrestling away US as global leader. In middle of growing high tech export. Starting a war now give initiative back to US temporarily. China need to deindustrialize opponents one last time at automobile and electronics, before commiting.
- Can China win? (Yes)
- Can China win without heavy cost? (We are almost past this)
- Can China win without opportunity cost? (Not yet, but less than 10 years away)
Stage 3 is an issue. China is in middle of wrestling away US as global leader. In middle of growing high tech export. Starting a war now give initiative back to US temporarily. China need to deindustrialize opponents one last time at automobile and electronics, before commiting.
I find a lot of the discussions here about Kiribati and the third Island chain here silly and I think a lot of people loose the forest for the trees.
Remember THE GOAL IS TO REUNIFY WITH TAIWAN. It's not to establish hegemony over Hawaii. The US political/news/punditry class believe their own propaganda and have deluded themselves into thinking that Taiwan is a fortress.
It isn't.
US intelligence assess that the PLA will have air superiority over Taiwan. That should really end the conversation. The US midwit class (NPR readers/redditors/freaking out over Trump taking away their democracy/people who unironically watch real life lore ) all seem to believe that the invasion of Taiwan will start with a full ROC army in their fictional beach fortresses against massed up hordes of PLA troops who just landed. Instead, with the aforementioned air superiority/PHL 16/Cheap Suicide drones most of the ROCs tanks and artillery will be taken out before a single PLA solider lands. When the PLA does land they will have tanks artillery infantry airpower drones against an entirely infantry force. The ROC will collapse within a week of the PLA landing and the only difficult part of the campaign will be against a Hamas type ROC urban combat insurgency in Taipei city if it does happen.
If your a US commander, you have to breakthrough hundreds of ships, 5th gens couple of CVNs soon H20s and 09Vs before Taiwan falls. The same Taiwan that will loose half their army in a pre landing bombardment and then the other half when the PLA clean up crew comes to shore. The US commander will have to break through the PLAs outer ring of defences in like a week and ensure losses aren't high enough so they can actually sortie over Taiwan. They will then have to do SEAD against PLA AD in Taiwan if they do break through in time for the ROC not to fall which they might have another week to do if the PLA has been awful in their PHL 16 shooting.
The idea that Taiwan can survive against the PLA is Ian Easton fan fiction at this point. The only thing preventing AR atp is non military economic and industry factors Moreso than anything else.
Remember THE GOAL IS TO REUNIFY WITH TAIWAN. It's not to establish hegemony over Hawaii. The US political/news/punditry class believe their own propaganda and have deluded themselves into thinking that Taiwan is a fortress.
It isn't.
US intelligence assess that the PLA will have air superiority over Taiwan. That should really end the conversation. The US midwit class (NPR readers/redditors/freaking out over Trump taking away their democracy/people who unironically watch real life lore ) all seem to believe that the invasion of Taiwan will start with a full ROC army in their fictional beach fortresses against massed up hordes of PLA troops who just landed. Instead, with the aforementioned air superiority/PHL 16/Cheap Suicide drones most of the ROCs tanks and artillery will be taken out before a single PLA solider lands. When the PLA does land they will have tanks artillery infantry airpower drones against an entirely infantry force. The ROC will collapse within a week of the PLA landing and the only difficult part of the campaign will be against a Hamas type ROC urban combat insurgency in Taipei city if it does happen.
If your a US commander, you have to breakthrough hundreds of ships, 5th gens couple of CVNs soon H20s and 09Vs before Taiwan falls. The same Taiwan that will loose half their army in a pre landing bombardment and then the other half when the PLA clean up crew comes to shore. The US commander will have to break through the PLAs outer ring of defences in like a week and ensure losses aren't high enough so they can actually sortie over Taiwan. They will then have to do SEAD against PLA AD in Taiwan if they do break through in time for the ROC not to fall which they might have another week to do if the PLA has been awful in their PHL 16 shooting.
The idea that Taiwan can survive against the PLA is Ian Easton fan fiction at this point. The only thing preventing AR atp is non military economic and industry factors Moreso than anything else.