People on the island is not gonna surrender when there is hope of a rescue by the Americans
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
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It's not like US can rescue them from being bombed into oblivion. At most, assuming US magically wins everything, they can get revenge, years or decades down the line.
There will defintely be surrenders simply because people don't think about the bigger picture once they're in a desparate situation.
The bigger picture might say that their heroic sacrifice now will lead to US winning offensives after years of grinding, the PLA eventually experiencing what the AFU is doing now, culminating in mutual nuclear destruction once it's clear that China will be overrun by US conventional forces.
But that's not a bigger picture that someone who is having everything around them bombed and having no food even if the survive bombing would care about. They just want them and their family to survive.
Surrenders will happen, only question being on what scale and how China can handle them in a smooth way.
Providing ISR is very different from joining the war directly. China should never tolerate any military assistance to the Taiwanese rebel forces. But there must be some nuances. If the US and friends are just providing ISR, then is sinking a US destroyer a proportional response? There are options short of WW3 that China could do first, such as shutting down the lines of communications. If the US sends drones, then the PLAAF can jam or shoot them down (using the "Spy Balloon" case as precedent). If the US sends manned SIGINT planes, then the PLAAF could buzz them, fuel dump, chaff dump, do whatever to interfere with their mission short of shooting at them. Key point is, as long as the US and friends are not shooting at the PLA, its not the time to fight WW3 yet. I'm not saying that China should not prepare to fight WW3 at all. The PLA should be fully mobilized and prepared to respond to a WW3 scenario just in case. But the Chinese can practice escalation management to avoid WW3 as long as the US and friends don't start WW3 first. The US and friends are cowards. They want useful idiots in Taiwan to die for them, not the other way round. Best is to keep things that way, so that China could be in full control of the war. WW3 is not controllable, even if it could be won.
Chances of those island garrisons surrendering after some bombardment is pretty good i think. they are so isolated, and in many cases closer to the mainland than taiwan, no reason not to either surrender or abandon post.
I think you are focusing too much on the Taiwan Island.
Arm unification is actually the opening of a Sino-Americana war. The fighting around the Taiwan Island is only one of the theatres. The US has staked the credibility and reputation of its hegemony on the defence of the island. Not doing anything is not an option. The West’s participation in Civil War 2.0 is a certainty. The sooner PLA attacks the American bases, the more advantageous it is for China in the war.
If the Americans wants to assist the ROC forces in anyway, they become legitimate targets. Remember, NATO ISR assistance to Ukraine are costing Russian lives. Russia is unwilling to attack NATO assets because Russia can’t take on NATO forces conventionally. China has no such problem.
Letting the Hegemon and its vassals to gather their assets in the theatre is a huge strategic mistake, the one made by Saddam Hussein in Gulf War I. It actually makes sense to force the West’s hand early on before they can move their assets into the theatre, thus the reason I said the PLA should attack the Hegemon’s and its vassals’ assets in the West Pac as soon as possible. Destroying their bases of operations in the West Pac will make their attacks on China much much more difficult. China must use any excuse possible to do that in the opening of the war.
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These are good points. Its interesting to wonder how the scenario would look like when the PLA warns Taiwanese civilians in an area to evac before an incoming strike. If the civilians received the warning, chances are, the military would receive it too, and evac together. A HIMARS launcher could be quickly packed up and driven among the crowd of escaping civilian traffic. The PLA could warn civilians to stay away from that HIMARS launcher no matter where it goes. Then, any unfortunate civilians or idiots who continued to stay too close to that HIMARS gets liquidated along with it. Sooner or later, any Taiwanese HIMARS is gonna become a figure of fear, rather than a symbol of defiance against the PLA. Sober civilians are gonna avoid it like the plague, rather than climbing on it and waving flags to encourage the crew.
So how should the PLA get their targeting message across to Taiwanese civilians?
1) Internet is the best method, but could be subjected to DPP censorship. And if the PLA allows Taiwanese internet connections to persist, it could act as a double-edged sword.
2) TV and Radio broadcast could be useful, but they could be jammed and blocked by the DPP. Furthermore, traditional TV and radio don't have the same reach as they once did before the age of 4G internet. Again, allowing Taiwanese media communication to persist is a double-edged sword.
3) Drones with communication relays or loudspeakers could be used. But they still run the risk of interception by the enemy.
4) Leaflet drops are very old fashioned. They are logistically demanding, and can't deliver the message fast enough. They still need munitions and assets to deliver them.
5) "Roof knocking" like what was practiced by the Israelis? Its true effectiveness in saving civilian lives is very questionable.
6) Marking the target with flares, beacons, or lasers could work. But it'll also expose the target designator to enemy return fire.
Are there even better methods to send the message across?
you should google PLAAF Y-8 psyop aircraft.
So you are suggesting China do a Pearl Harbor?
I can see the benefit of that, but that also give US easier time politically to mobilize. Historically politics is a major weakness of US, it would be unwise to solve that for them for a minor tactical advantage.
If China never did first strike, US will have a hard time convincing to attack China, who invaded a "non-ally", "not a country". Sure everyone dislike China, but getting drafted in a war is a different story. I highly doubt US joining the war is as easy as pressing a button.
Lastly, when Japan did Pearl Harbor attack, they crippled US Navy for a year. I doubt a Chinese first strike can achieve the same. US force deployment is too spread out for something like that.
"Do a pearl harbour" has a lot of political connotations that are better left ignored.
What he is saying, is that if the PLA does not take the opportunity to carry out a comprehensive first strike with strategic initiative to target key staging areas of US military power in the region, then it offers the US to redeploy and surge and harden its positions in the western pacific to a degree which may result in the PLA and China overall losing a conflict over Taiwan and/or the western pacific at large.
Patchwork wrote a series of posts relating to this in the past on Reddit which has been copied over a few times on other places. I don't have the text, but others might.
China doesn't have to only order civilians to leave the small area whenever they see anti government weapons. Instead, they can direct nearly all civilians to leave towards pre-designated safe areas, somewhere in each city outskirts, giving them the instructions to pack their belongings and to set up tents, in wait for liberation by the military.
Doing so will open up much more areas to being bombed on much shorter notice, than if they had to announce every time they striked.
It will also quickly drive a wedge between the anti government leaders and the locals. The KMT will initially try to prevent exodus as much as possible, insisting that everything is fine, but once those who show treasonous inclination and stay are indiscriminately bombed, full scale panic and fleeing towards the government's designated areas will cause a massive morale blow against enemies.
The main point of warning them isn't to ensure 100% of the civilians leave, it's to ensure that if any civilians are struck, the blame lies with the ROC.
No methods of warning are completely waterproof, but the locals inside the province have only themselves to blame, for allowing traitor leaders to take local power, and then for allowing them to start civil wars, or even worse, attempt to sell out Chinese land and lives into Jap and American bondage. Because of this, Taiwanese will simply be asked to bear greater hardship than anyone else, when it comes to rectifying the mistakes of allowing the civil war to go on. There's no way around that uncomfortable fact. If they wanted to avoid it, they should have destroyed the KMT themselves.