I think Kim Jeong-Un should start it!
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
After learning, belatedly, of Taiwan’s topography, I acknowledge that my strategy was immature.
”Immature strategy is the cause of grief”; anybody know who said that?
See that, y’all; in a discussion, not debate, it’s about learning and advancing knowledge, not winning! From my experience, debate is so Anglo-adolescent!
US needs to win decisive battles before China fully focuses on the war. Demoralize the people on the mainland, but offer terms that don't make them feel cornered after US have accomplished fait accompli. That's the only way I see an invasion would succeed.
What I would do as US would be to first move nearly all naval/air assets into Asia, and then hit the SCS and towards Hainan with a massive naval blitz. With China focusing on keeping US away from the important south, US forces can more easily penetrate the 1st island chain, rapidly move airborne and marine troops into Taiwan and seize control.
From then on, it would be about keeping the supply routes open, which would only be possible if the initial decisive clashes were at least reasonably favorable. But if that can happen, America would be able to begin peace negotiations.
While China is unlikely to totally surrender Taiwan, US would have a strong negotiating hand if they have soldiers occupying Chinese cities. And if the fighting is contained to around the borders, there is a chance that most of the mainland population won't feel too threatened.
A solution US can realistically negotiate for would be forcing China to turn Taiwan into a separate associated region, like Hong Kong, but with US control and Chinese non interference written in a mutual agreement, to last x amount of decades, basically turning Taiwan into an US annexed area, while still placating accusations of overt annexation and playing to the sensibilities of America appeasers within China.
Warhawks in America would probably try to apply the "Crimea" model (Taiwan is now ours, it has always and will always be ours), but the thing is it would almost guaranteed lead to a forever war, because China is going nowhere, and they will just come back for Taiwan later after building up the military more, like Ukraine returned for the Donbass and Crimea. Not a long term solution.
The U. S. is not invading China!
YJ-12 is not the best-ranged AShM in PLA’s arsenal. DF-17, DF-21D and YJ-21 can engage USN surface combatants at the max-range of their LACMs and near the max-range of the F-35-LRASM dyad. Longer-ranged AShMs don’t need fighter escorts in contested battle-space, although, they probably will benefit from forward-deployed stealth drone support. USN wouldn’t even encounter YJ-12s until they’d survived these longer-ranged threats.
If you read some of the previous posts, you’ll learn that some of the scenarios you raise have been addressed, a few times, in different ways.
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lcloo
Captain
Too late now that the train has left, there is no way the US navy can win in South China sea nor occupation of any Chinese Mainland cities. China's long range strike capability within SCS and beyond first island chain has improved both in quality and quantity in the last decade or two, any invading ships within these areas would face high risks of being sunk.
US has never fought against a major power since WW2. (China at Korea war doesn't count as a major power at that time but they did pushed US lead forces South to 38 parallel line). It would be a different fight unlike wars in Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan.
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Ok? A bunch of Japanese people starve. How does this stop the American and Indian navies from preventing Chinese maritime shipping from making it through?
I will use the term No-Entry Zone (NEZ) to encompass both air and sea domains.
If Beijing has decided to set up the NEZ around Taiwan as part of Operation AR, then the PLA and CCG must be responsible for maintaining and enforcing the NEZ to stop any foreign intrusion without any exclusive permission from Beijing, regardless of whoever is doing the intrusion.
If the US, in this case, decides to violate the NEZ with warplanes and/or warships, then the PLA and CCG is entirely responsible to warn and chase them away. If they do not comply, then it is entirely within the PLA's rights to open fire at the intruding US warplanes and/or warships to down their warplanes and/or sink their warships.
The ball is in the NEZ violators' court (in this case, the US), not the NEZ enforcer's court (in this case, China). Whether the US wants to stop its actions and back down, or be adamant and go to war with China - The choice is for DC to make. And if the US choose the latter, then the China of the 2020s is not the China of the 1990s, either.
It makes no sense for China to tolerate NEZ violations from anyone, including the USAF and USN. If China tolerates such violations on the NEZ set up around Taiwan, then what's the point of setting up the NEZ in the first place? China might as well surrender Taiwan away to the US and Japan, and the CPC can step down right away.
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