PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Derpy

Junior Member
Registered Member
Well, they still have room to back off, it's far from a certainty that they will. But it would also be premature to say they absolutely won't.
For the initial invasion The U.S coalition sent 160 000 troops into Iraq in 2003, which at that time had a population of 27 million.
If we scale that to China they would need around 8.3 million ground troops...
And this assumes China is just a big Iraq and not a peer / near peer Superpower.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
For the initial invasion The U.S coalition sent 160 000 troops into Iraq in 2003, which at that time had a population of 27 million.
If we scale that to China they would need around 8.3 million ground troops...
And this assumes China is just a big Iraq and not a peer / near peer Superpower.
US can obviously not invade all of China lol. But they can get a few hundred thousand into Taiwan, and in some ways they've made threats to attack. So I don't think this is entirely unrealistic, even if calmer heads in US would not want war, we all know US is mostly lead by megalomanic lunatics.
 

james smith esq

Senior Member
Registered Member
US can obviously not invade all of China lol. But they can get a few hundred thousand into Taiwan, and in some ways they've made threats to attack. So I don't think this is entirely unrealistic, even if calmer heads in US would not want war, we all know US is mostly lead by megalomanic lunatics.
Just how will they get a few hundred thousand into Taiwan?

Any amphibious landings will be conducted well within range of the full arsenal of Chinese options (the same applies to any PLA landings) . It’s for this same reason that I’m thinking that any attempts at amphibious landings on Taiwan, by anybody, as the initial stage of a war would be impossible! The sheer area that an amphibious landing force would occupy would provide too large and vulnerable a target. The fundamentally static position of a landing-force in the littoral sea would create an area-target, versus point-targets, drastically simplifying targeting solutions. Missiles with infra-red and television seekers could simply be rained-down on the area with high-expectations of target-engagement.

I’d expect that any amphibious-landings would only occur after an air-sea battle in which one side has gained a decisive advantage, if not outright victory.
 

CMP

Senior Member
Registered Member
Just how will they get a few hundred thousand into Taiwan?

Any amphibious landings will be conducted well within range of the full arsenal of Chinese options (the same applies to any PLA landings) . It’s for this same reason that I’m thinking that any attempts at amphibious landings on Taiwan, by anybody, as the initial stage of a war would be impossible! The sheer area that an amphibious landing force would occupy would provide too large and vulnerable a target. The fundamentally static position of a landing-force in the littoral sea would create an area-target, versus point-targets, drastically simplifying targeting solutions. Missiles with infra-red and television seekers could simply be rained-down on the area with high-expectations of target-engagement.

I’d expect that any amphibious-landings would only occur after an air-sea battle in which one side has gained a decisive advantage, if not outright victory.
I've been saying that for years. Nobody listens. Everyone still imagines it'll be like WW2 Normandy. Idiots.
 

Hood_Rat

New Member
Registered Member
Indian navy won't be involved. Chinese won't really be exporting to US/Europe anyways, and there is sufficient transport capacity for import routes without needing to go through Indian Ocean/Malacca strait at all.

There really isn't. The combined rail and road routes in Eurasia combined have the rough throughput of just the port of Shanghai and Tianjin. The PRC will have to burn through its strategic commodity reserves which are 1-2 years of peacetime consumption. This can probably be stretched to 4 years with wartime rationing.

The PLA will need to inflict a decisive defeat on the enemy naval coalition at sea to secure the SLOCs in <4 years which is doable. Naturally it's best if this is done sooner rather than later to ensure the post war economic recovery isn't knee capped.
 

james smith esq

Senior Member
Registered Member
I've been saying that for years. Nobody listens. Everyone still imagines it'll be like WW2 Normandy. Idiots.
I’m trying to earn back de-merits for my disastrously immature strategy for American victory a few pages back. Your’s and FairAndUnbiased’s correction of my geographic ignorance of Taiwan has required me to re-assess my understanding of the scenario. However, I do maintain that, in the air-sea battle within the first-island-chain, the only impediments to China‘s complete domination are the U. S./Japanese bases in the Ryukus. The Ryukus are the lock; what’re the keys?
 

james smith esq

Senior Member
Registered Member
There really isn't. The combined rail and road routes in Eurasia combined have the rough throughput of just the port of Shanghai and Tianjin. The PRC will have to burn through its strategic commodity reserves which are 1-2 years of peacetime consumption. This can probably be stretched to 4 years with wartime rationing.

The PLA will need to inflict a decisive defeat on the enemy naval coalition at sea to secure the SLOCs in <4 years which is doable. Naturally it's best if this is done sooner rather than later to ensure the post war economic recovery isn't knee capped.
Indian involvement would come at severe cost, sufficiently severe, I believe, as to prevent its occurrence?
 

Hood_Rat

New Member
Registered Member
Indian involvement would come at severe cost, sufficiently severe, I believe, as to prevent its occurrence?

With what assets will China inflict catastrophic damage on the Indian heartland that isn't nuclear in nature? Their one real lever was called Pakistan and that place is basically sinking into stagnation and civil strife; it will no longer be able to keep up with India if the US is serious about propping up India.
 
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