FriedRiceNSpice
Captain
Indian navy won't be involved. Chinese won't really be exporting to US/Europe anyways, and there is sufficient transport capacity for import routes without needing to go through Indian Ocean/Malacca strait at all.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
Indian navy won't be involved. Chinese won't really be exporting to US/Europe anyways, and there is sufficient transport capacity for import routes without needing to go through Indian Ocean/Malacca strait at all.
one way of making the NEZ useful yet not break the psychological barrier of firing first is to dump clearly marked surface mines in their path along with floating signs warning of minefields that may or may not exist.
they'll have the choice of running into them, turning back, or attempting to clear mines during active shooting. Ram the minesweepers with USVs, let them know that clearing the mines won't be an option.
ball is 100% in their court.
That's not going to work.
Firstly, "assemble nearly all air and naval assets in Asia" - And the US should expect China to not notice (and be prepared to respond) at all?
Then, regarding the "hit Chinese man-made island bases in the SCS and towards Hainan in a massive naval blitz, drawing China's attention to the southern region and the SCS before move in to occupy Taiwan" - Hold it right there.
Firstly, in that case - Is the US military fighting the PLA of 2016, or is the US military fighting the PLA of 2023? Does the PLA only have one functional theater command across the entire country, i.e. the STC? Where did the ETC, CTC and NTC went?
Then, there's the mention of "strikes moving towards Hainan" - Hainan is not considered to be outlying islands of China like those man-made ones in the SCS or even the rebel island of Taiwan, but an integral part of mainland China itself. Attacking Hainan means attacking Chinese soil directly. I don't see how Beijing would see bombs and missiles falling on Hainan and just shrugs, saying "Meh, that's fine, let them. Haikou isn't as important as Guangzhou anyway"???
Then, there is Sanya, which is also home to the Shandong CSG and China's SSN and SSBN fleets. Simply put, Sanya is the Chinese equivalent of Pearl Habour/Kitsap.
So in case the US&LC attacks PLA bases in Hainan (or elsewhere in mainland China), China WILL retaliate in kind by striking US&LC military bases of similar importance in Taiwan, the Ryukyus, Japan, Guam, and elsewhere in the WestPac that directly participates in the conflict against China. And based on your stipulation, USMC bases in the region such as Futenma wouldn't even manage to move in force to Taiwan effectively and in time before the first PLA rocket artillery and missile barrages arrive.
Next, regarding the "US turning Taiwan into an American Hong Kong for XX years" - Lol no. The US main goal is to inflict as much damages to the PLA during Operation AR as possible, such that it would become utterly unfeasible for the PLA to proceed with Operation AR, and/or forcing Beijing to recognize that China has permanently lost Taiwan. An agreement like the "Hong Kong 99-year lease" isn't going to happen, because we are in the 21st century, not the 19th century.
Plus, until US boots are marching on the grounds of Tiananmen Square, Beijing would never agree to such demands. And China would rather press the nuclear button and even nuke their own soil than allowing US&LC troops to walk freely on Chinese soil.
Lastly, speaking of the "US occupy Chinese cities to appear strong during negotiations" - Like lol, lmao even. Where would the US&LC even base their invasion forces at, in order to invade mainland China directly, to begin with?
Vietnam? Guangxi and Yunnan are plenty mountainous and forested enough. If the US&LC wants to experience Vietnam War 2.0, feel free.
South Korea? North Korea exists for a reason. China is also an avid learner of history, they know what happens if foreign invaders weren't stopped at Yalu.
India? Good luck marching through the mountain ranges of Himalaya and the Tibetan Plateau. That region is several magnitudes larger and more extreme than Afghanistan.
Kazakhstan? Good luck crossing the Tian Shan mountain ranges and the Taklamakan + Gobi deserts. Those aren't your average Iraq.
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I believe at least the most cost-effective way for the US to contest an AR scenario would be to simply attack any strait crossing attempt by the PLA, even at the bleakest of outcomes from a naval tussle in west-PAC, the US would at least be able to fly stealth bombers strapped with NSM/JASSM within 6-700km of Taiwan to disrupt any landing attempt. We've seen in Ukraine that even the most modern of AA systems are not fool proof and that some strikes would go through regardless. however if it would amount to much other than harassment is questionable, since the PLA can also use civilian RORO to supplement its transport fleet.
PLAN marines can conduct over the horizon assaults directly with amphibious vehicles deployed from well docks of LHDs and LPDs that are 30-40 km offshore and protected by DDGs. Can also launch Zubrs directly from the coast. No need for RORO vehicles until the ports are taken.
Other thing is that MALE drones can be launched costing ~1 million yet still have range over the strait. Once SEAD is done and air supremacy taken, drones with ATGMs can trade favorably with targets as small as individual trucks used for shipping goods. Taking out a $100k transport truck carrying up to millions of goods with a $20k ATGM or $10k guided bomb is worth.
lcloo
Captain
Any attack by US on Mainland forces crossing the straits would mean war between China and US.
China would not take US lightly, and before sending ships across the straits, they would have intensified survellance on all US bases in West Pacific and Indian Ocean weeks before AR started. They would be alerted immediately after US stealth bombers take off from Guam and Alaska, as well as in South Korea, Japan and Australia.
Chinese would be foolish if they are not prepare for the possibility of the AR to quickly expand to become a West Pacific War. US might lose their allies in South Korea, Japan and Phillippines which would result in weakening of US's strongholds in West Pacifics. There is also a possibility of Okinawa revert back to independent Ryukyu with Chinese help.
The most likely sceanio would be US will support Taiwan forces with satellite and airborned survallance and supplying of real time information, much like what they are doing in current Ukraine war. They should know the consequence of them directly attacking Chinese forces, and their West Pacific allies that housed US bases should know too.
Of course there is a big element of gambling in it. How else would you suggest a smaller economy and population could successfully invade a larger country thousands of miles away? This is essentially Imperial Japan vs US+China again.
Yeah there is always a risk that if China feels it is losing Taiwan, they will just scorch the whole place rather than give it up to US. But again US can not really do much about that, because if China says US boots in Taiwan means MAD/tactical nuke spam, US has to back off, or cause nuclear war. And nobody is winning that.
Not mainland China, they would land in Taiwan while Chinese forces are busy preventing an armada from penetrating the SCS.
My point is that it's way better to gamble everything in being able to cripple the PLAN in a big SCS battle and then hope China would be demoralized to accept some form of American control over Taiwan. The alternatives are:
1. Throw an assault at the 1st island chain instead. It's much better defended than the SCS. No matter how many CBGs are sent, how well would they hold up under long range fires?
2. Don't assault the 1st island chain, stay at range. But then the KMT gets destroyed as they get no supply whatsoever, and China will turn Taiwan into a hardened fortress.
3. Send token assistance to KMT but don't attack using US forces, allowing US to gracefully exit and blame the ROC army for incompetence. This solution would let US escape with it's face intact, but they would lose their claims inside China.
With all the gung-ho-ness, here, about amphibious landings, just how large an amphibious force do folks think that China has the capacity to land? Does China currently have the capacity to land five mechanized brigades at once?
Well, they still have room to back off, it's far from a certainty that they will. But it would also be premature to say they absolutely won't.