PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

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bebops

Junior Member
Registered Member
My opinion about who will win in this conflict is a mix bag. I am leaning towards a stalemale. This conflict is just both sides doing a missile shooting contest with drones involved.

Best result is no war. There is no flawless wars where no buildings or military platforms will go unharmed. Israel has the military advantage but it still suffers alot of economic damage.
 
Nevermore

Nevermore

Junior Member
Registered Member
The current US military is sweating profusely even fighting the Houthi slipper army and Iran. Do you actually expect the United States to launch a full-scale war against China? I think the United States not only does not have the strength, but also the courage. Don't forget that the whole world relies on cheap Chinese goods to reduce inflation. The domestic industry of the United States cannot support a conventional war between superpowers. By the way, when Russia attacked Ukraine, the United States only dared to provide weapons on the sidelines and even told Ukraine not to attack Moscow. If the war gets out of control, it will be a war that will cost the United States its national destiny. What kind of superpower is this? This is simply a replica of Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor. Of course, if you want to win for sure, wait until 2035. At that time, no one dares to stop the People's Liberation Army.
 
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votran

Junior Member
Registered Member
PLAwatcher12 said:
I said the last part many many times, and could absolutely win means there is a chance, I don’t think we should be underestimating the US when it comes war capabilities, yes China has weapons to deal with US assets but those don’t guarantee anything, the US still has Japan, Philippines, Australia, etc, they have 11 aircraft carriers sure they might be only able to send 6 but that’s still 6 aircraft carriers, they have hundreds of 5th generation planes, stealth bombers, yes China has 5th generation planes too but not as much currently as the US does. And don’t take what hegseth says as fact, they say stuff so they can get more money and equipment.

We won’t know any of this unless war happens. I could be wrong and you could be wrung to but my opinion is that you and other people here seem to be underestimating the US capabilities, even if China did win a Taiwan war today it would be extremely costly for both sides. My overall point is today the US would more likely to win than in 2027 that’s a point I stated muptile times, and that people do seem to be underestimating the US
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actually currently US navy have no way to fully equip more than 4 carrier battle group or even 3 in term of atleast 30x F/A-18 , atleast 20x F-35 carrier based variant, , two E-2 AWAC each
and standard protection group of 6x arleigh burke block 2/3 destroyer , 2x submarine , 1x mine clearing ship , 2x supply ship

you can read some open source on internet about US warship number dock in their main naval base at okinawa , or mainland japan 5 years ago all the way to this day

6 carrier require fucking 36 arleigh burke block 2 or 3 (the version with modern 96 VLS) and 12 nuclear attack marine , 12 supply ship , 180 F/A-18 , 120 F-35 .....all the stuff US currently not yet have enough let alone deploy them here to fight china
 
doggydogdo

doggydogdo

Junior Member
Registered Member
bebops said:
My opinion about who will win in this conflict is a mix bag. I am leaning towards a stalemale. This conflict is just both sides doing a missile shooting contest with drones involved.

Best result is no war. There is no flawless wars where no buildings or military platforms will go unharmed. Israel has the military advantage but it still suffers alot of economic damage.
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I don't see how it would be a stalemate since China could easily overwhelm US forces in East Asia and recapture Taiwan. Getting into a missile/drone shooting contest with China would be a guaranteed victory for China. Comparing Israel to China is stupid because Israel has less people than a lot of Chinese cities + US focuses a lot more on cruise missiles than ballistic missiles which makes it a lot easier for China to intercept them.
 
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dingyibvs

Senior Member
zyklon said:
You're right to be concerned about President Trump, but what is most worrying about him isn't his rapacity, at this point. A coherent Trump wouldn't start a nuclear war because he sees himself as a winner, if not "the winner," and he appears wise or at least seasoned enough to know that there are no winners in a MAD scenario.

Problem is Trump's mental faculties have visibly declined in the last few years, and will continue to diminish. Everyone will get old — unless they die young — so this isn't a slight against our illustrious leader. However, it is a problem in practice as it'll hamper Trump's ability to rein in less cautious, yet more ambitious subordinates.

Some of
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; likewise
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, but have been quieter about such prospects in recent years; and that's on top of
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.

Of these states, South Korea is most likely to acquire nuclear weapons in the short or medium term, since their cousins up north got some already, and it could make for a very, very slippery slope in terms of downstream regional, if not global effects.

The
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, and if 赖清德 and his DPP cohorts feel cornered, reckless and/or are otherwise even dumber than they look, there's a not unreasonable chance the authorities in Taipei will try again.

Should the DPP leadership move towards nuclearization, the authorities in Beijing may have no choice but to direct the PLA to seize control of Taiwan by force immediately.
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When people get old, they stick more to their instincts. A paranoid leader becomes more paranoid, a violent leader becomes more violent, and a leader who's always winning in his mind will win even more in his mind. The older Trump gets the easier it'll become to make him believe that he won. It's likely easier to convince him to stay out of a Taiwan scenario and recognize China's rule over Taiwan after AR in exchange for TSMC moving all currently banned SME to the US. The equipment have kill switches in them and would be useless for China anyway, and China probably would've let those who aren't willing to stay to immigrate anyway as well so it'll also do that. It's very, very reasonable for both him and his base to claim it as a win, and the idea of a win will be overwhelmingly favored in his mind that it can overcome all objections from within or without.
 
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AndrewJ

Junior Member
Registered Member
dingyibvs said:
When people get old, they stick more to their instincts. A paranoid leader becomes more paranoid, a violent leader becomes more violent, and a leader who's always winning in his mind will win even more in his mind. The older Trump gets the easier it'll become to make him believe that he won. It's likely easier to convince him to stay out of a Taiwan scenario and recognize China's rule over Taiwan after AR in exchange for TSMC moving all currently banned SME to the US. The equipment have kill switches in them and would be useless for China anyway, and China probably would've let those who aren't willing to stay to immigrate anyway as well so it'll also do that. It's very, very reasonable for both him and his base to claim it as a win, and the idea of a win will be overwhelmingly favored in his mind that it can overcome all objections from within or without.
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Why it more sounds like Modi? :oops:
 
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