PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
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A question we need to ask is if Taiwan is conquered will the US keep on fighting? Like should we start measuring how much stocks of food and fuels Taiwan has as the time the PLA needs to hold off American forces after which they can conqueror the starving country.
I can already imagine due to the populations/non briefed politicians completely unrealistic expectations for what they can actually do in this war that when they see hundreds of US planes burned to the ground in Japan and a dozen + ships been made into mince meat would they quickly capitulate?
I can already imagine due to the populations/non briefed politicians completely unrealistic expectations for what they can actually do in this war that when they see hundreds of US planes burned to the ground in Japan and a dozen + ships been made into mince meat would they quickly capitulate?
DF-21 do not have sufficient range to reach Guam. China needs DF-26 and DF-27 to do so - Or at the very least (based on the recent discussion in the HCM/HGV thread), DF-17.
Otherwise, H-6K/J/Ns of the PLAAF would be the ones to deliver standoff land-attack missiles against Guam, e.g. KD-20, DF-100 and YJ-21. Though, the number of missiles that can be carried by each H-6 would be reduced due to range and takeoff weight constrains (only the N variant can refuel mid-air).
What's left is the PLAN's DH-10, YJ-18 and YJ-21 launched from the 055s, 052Ds and 093/A/Bs. Though (and understandably), leaving anywhere beyond the immediate vicinity of the 1IC would leave PLAN warships increasingly vulnerable to the USAF and USN, both of which are still more formidable and powerful beyond the 1IC. Hence, I don't really expect the PLAN to venture deep into the Pacific way beyond the 1IC (and thus, losing proper air cover from the mainland) unless absolutely necessary.
In the meantime, there's more than just dueling in terns of number of LAtMs vs number of SAMs. I do envision that the ability to suppress, phish and/or deceive enemy SAM radar and sensor systems (into disabling SAM defenses and/or wasting precious SAMs against fake targets) being second-to, if not equally-vital key aspects for the PLA to consider too.
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It is my own personal calculation that the US would not fight unless it is sure it can win a decisive victory.
If we look at Ukraine, the west is keeping the conflict at arms length because the risk of nuclear war is not worth it.
For Taiwan, even if we take nuclear war off the table, what is there to gain for fighting?
At this time, there are no formal US bases/installations or active military activities on Taiwan. If Taiwan was to be reunified, in the big picture not that much changes besides China having totally unimpeded access to the Pacific. Unless we believe the PRC is considering conquering Hawaii, this isn't a huge deal.
However, in the case of full intervention, the US would have everything to lose. Even if China is pushed back and their military is devastated, it would be unlikely that the US military would not suffer on equal terms. If the US military is so severely weakened, then it would create a power vacuum in East Asia. However, if they let Taiwan go, then their military strength would remain intact, and in fact could use the fear of a confident China to goad SK and Japan into a formal 3-way alliance, and pull Vietnam and India closer as well.
Further to this, I want to add that I believe the US is shifting to this kind of strategy for Taiwan. They have recently approved directly funding Taiwan's weapon purchases (similar to Israel where the US government essentially buys weapons for them) after the experience so far in Ukraine. They probably believe the best hope is that given sufficient money and weapons, Taiwan forces can at least put up a good fight. It is far most cost effective and politically sound.
The unwashed masses are too stupid. They think everything in China is stolen/copied, blah blah blah. Not even worth considering.
If we look at Ukraine, the west is keeping the conflict at arms length because the risk of nuclear war is not worth it.
For Taiwan, even if we take nuclear war off the table, what is there to gain for fighting?
At this time, there are no formal US bases/installations or active military activities on Taiwan. If Taiwan was to be reunified, in the big picture not that much changes besides China having totally unimpeded access to the Pacific. Unless we believe the PRC is considering conquering Hawaii, this isn't a huge deal.
However, in the case of full intervention, the US would have everything to lose. Even if China is pushed back and their military is devastated, it would be unlikely that the US military would not suffer on equal terms. If the US military is so severely weakened, then it would create a power vacuum in East Asia. However, if they let Taiwan go, then their military strength would remain intact, and in fact could use the fear of a confident China to goad SK and Japan into a formal 3-way alliance, and pull Vietnam and India closer as well.
Further to this, I want to add that I believe the US is shifting to this kind of strategy for Taiwan. They have recently approved directly funding Taiwan's weapon purchases (similar to Israel where the US government essentially buys weapons for them) after the experience so far in Ukraine. They probably believe the best hope is that given sufficient money and weapons, Taiwan forces can at least put up a good fight. It is far most cost effective and politically sound.
The unwashed masses are too stupid. They think everything in China is stolen/copied, blah blah blah. Not even worth considering.
Mine the water around Guam. Good luck keeping all those troops fed.
If PLA blockades the Taiwan Island and bombs the radar installations on Yonaguni Island and other close-by Japanese islands, can American avoid getting involved?
Shaheds are 2000 km range, 150 kph, flies at the ~10-20 m range and have a ~0.1 m2 frontal RCS in X band.
The detection radius for ground radars is going to be on the order of km and even when detected on fighter radar, has a smaller RCS than a passenger car going at comparable speeds. It is 100% not easy to take out.
It also has coordinate waypoint capability so if the linear distance is shorter it can go around the target.
If they manage to not kill any Americans in a direct action, yes. Yonaguni Island is staffed by JASDF.
Any blockade would be preceded by posturing and preparation by PLA. If the US does not believe they can win a decisive victory during this time, they will craft an exit strategy. Could be shipping a crap load of extra weapons to Taiwan. Once a blockade formally commences, America can claim they helped Taiwan, and now it's up to themselves.