PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

tankphobia

tankphobia

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In regards to using mass suicide UAVs as a tactic, we should be seeing increasing employment of Laser based SHORADs from US forces over the next 5 years or so. While the range is definitely limited compared to even gun based systems, I believe that they will beat UAV cost wise. Shaheds look like just the right target type to get countered by laser defenses as it's neither fast or maneuverable.

I'll add on that any UAVs needed for this large theatre will be fairly big just by the nature of the distances involved, so a saturation attack quickly becomes un-economical, especially if hunter-killer uavs are embedded in each wave.
 
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aqh

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I think as of now , within 1000 miles of China's coast there is simply no way for the US to operate with the amount of YJ-12s which the PLA can saturate Okinawa and most of Japan. With the YY-20, Type 09Vs and more procurement of long ranged missiles as long as its more than the amount of defence missiles the US has it will likely make the 2IC a denied environment as well.
 
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aqh

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My comment was sent before my thoughts were finished so I'll try to finish it now.

As of now within 1000 miles of China's coast there is simply no way for the US to operate a serious air and naval force with the amount of YJ-12s which the PLA can saturate Okinawa and most of Japan from long legged J-20s and land based fires. They have so much fires and ISR there it wouldn't be fair. I think everyone can agree on that. Whatever assets the US forward deploys here would be annihilated.

This means that the main battle that the US should plan for is the one beyond 1000 miles. This means the main base where the US will be operating within will be Guam. The longest ranged munition the US as of now plans to procure is the JASSM XR which can be shot around 2000 miles off China's coast. Guam being 3000 miles of China's coast means the US from here would be operating from max standoff distances of around 1000 miles from Guam and 2000 miles from China's coast. From here the PLA can saturate Guam and use their missile defence to defend against volleys of JASSM XRs. In all honesty though I'm very skeptical that the US will have the mass of JASSMS to actually be able to stop AR.

All the PLA has to do is devastate Guam. As soon as its devastated the US will not have any forward bases where they could stop AR.
 
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theorlonator

Junior Member
Registered Member
aqh said:
I think as of now , within 1000 miles of China's coast there is simply no way for the US to operate with the amount of YJ-12s which the PLA can saturate Okinawa and most of Japan. With the YY-20, Type 09Vs and more procurement of long ranged missiles as long as its more than the amount of defence missiles the US has it will likely make the 2IC a denied environment as well.
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I heard rumors this is what people in the classified world are arguing about. Does anyone know of any estimates of how many YJ-12/YJ-18s there are?
 
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supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
aqh said:
My comment was sent before my thoughts were finished so I'll try to finish it now.

As of now within 1000 miles of China's coast there is simply no way for the US to operate a serious air and naval force with the amount of YJ-12s which the PLA can saturate Okinawa and most of Japan from long legged J-20s and land based fires. They have so much fires and ISR there it wouldn't be fair. I think everyone can agree on that. Whatever assets the US forward deploys here would be annihilated.

This means that the main battle that the US should plan for is the one beyond 1000 miles. This means the main base where the US will be operating within will be Guam. The longest ranged munition the US as of now plans to procure is the JASSM XR which can be shot around 2000 miles off China's coast. Guam being 3000 miles of China's coast means the US from here would be operating from max standoff distances of around 1000 miles from Guam and 2000 miles from China's coast. From here the PLA can saturate Guam and use their missile defence to defend against volleys of JASSM XRs. In all honesty though I'm very skeptical that the US will have the mass of JASSMS to actually be able to stop AR.

All the PLA has to do is devastate Guam. As soon as its devastated the US will not have any forward bases where they could stop AR.
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Agreed that if Guam was neutralized then everything is done.

That being said, if Okinawa/Japanese US bases get neutralized and Guam is left, what kinds of forces could be marshalled to stop an AR operation anyway? As you said, there are not enough JASSM to do credible damage.
 
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aqh

Junior Member
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supersnoop said:
Agreed that if Guam was neutralized then everything is done.

That being said, if Okinawa/Japanese US bases get neutralized and Guam is left, what kinds of forces could be marshalled to stop an AR operation anyway? As you said, there are not enough JASSM to do credible damage.
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CVN's with Ashm and Subs.
 
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ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
aqh said:
All the PLA has to do is devastate Guam. As soon as its devastated the US will not have any forward bases where they could stop AR.
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The Pentagon is already determined to make a stand at Guam in case of war:
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To put it simply, the US military is going "squeeze all kinds of SAM systems possible onto every inch of the island." Guam is expected to be able to take a very hard beating from Chinese aerial, naval and rocket attacks following those upgrades. Then, there's also the US Navy warships that can provide SAM cover for Guam with their SM-3s and SM-6s as well.

Plus, even if once Guam is finally knocked out and rendered completely ineffective for the US war effort, the US military has planned to fall back to Wake and/or Micronesia, both of which are even further away from China than Guam is, i.e. the 2.5IC (~1000-2000 kilometers east of Guam). Hence, China must also be able to reach those places along the 2.5IC too.

Tl; dr: To knock the US out of the war in the WestPac, it will never be easy, and it will never be limited to Guam only.

China and the PLA still has a lot, and I mean A LOT, to do.
 
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aqh

Junior Member
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Arguable the most important question of a west pac war is how much DF 21ds LACM etcetera does the PLA have vs American defence fires such as the SM-6. If China can saturate Guam then AR will be a success. The US as of now don't have munitions that can be launched from standoff distances in Wake/Micronesia
 
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