PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

ACuriousPLAFan said:

Guam is ~3000 kilometers away from the Chinese coastline.

How to mine the waters around Guam and keep those waters mined and access-denied for US warships and resupply ships effectively during wartime is a big question.

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Would sea mines be necessary? Maybe I'm over simplifying the situation, but with China's mix of both commercial and military earth observation satellite constellations that already support revisit times in as little as 10-15 minutes, would it be possible to use ASBMs to target surface combatants with midcourse corrections.

“By the end of this year, we expect to have 138 satellites in the constellation and provide 10-minute global revisit times,” He told state-owned Science and Technology Daily on Thursday.

He said the company expected the second phase of construction to achieve a total of 300 satellites in orbit by 2025, operating as “an all-time, all-weather, space-based monitoring network” offering high-resolution, daily global imaging.

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From 1000 miles off Chinas coast the US will simply not be able to handle the saturation volumes of YJ 12s.

Beyond that however stuff starts to get real dicey. From there the US will be able to have CVNs closer than China has land bases off their coast and the PLA will have access to less land based fires for support.

Is the PLA going to carry on expanding its A2/AD complex all the way to Guam? They need more IRBMs and the ability to utterly saturate Guam through Shahed types and missiles. Also the YY-20 to help the J-20 dominate and imo they need something longer ranged than the YJ-12, does anyone have any idea if they will start sausage mode on the YJ-21s soon or is there another air launched ashcm that we should be looking for?

I just realized that the US would need offboard sensors due to curvature of the earth. If the PLA is able to destroy the offboard sensors the US would need to target a blockade of Taiwan they won't be able to do anything

Ok I'm going to rephrase my thoughts fully.

From 1000 miles off Chinas coast the US will simply not be able to handle the saturation volumes of YJ 12s/land based fires/superior ISR/ Standoff jamming saturations + EW. In short if you think that within 1000 miles of China's coast the the US can have a force you are not the sharpest tool in the shed.

Beyond that however stuff starts to get real dicey. From there the US will be able to have CVNs closer than China has land bases off their coast and the PLA will have access to less land based fires for support. However the PLA doesn't need to expand its A2/AD complex there. They only need to ensure the US doesn't have a functioning C4ISTAR system within the 1IC. Organic sensors can only take you so far due to the earths curvature. JASSM variants technically do have standoff ranges but they will be subject to a kill chain of sensors in the PLA dominated 1IC. In addition to that even if they do get a targeting data they will have to get through all of the PLA systems. Similar to Guam, China is also an "onion" of sorts meaning they will have to saturate many defence missiles to exhaust PLAN magazines as well getting through CAP, EW etcetera.

From here the US will have its central point be Guam after Jp and the 1IC is thoroughly destroyed. They recognize that which is why they are building up so much defence fires there however China can still saturate it and doesn't even need offboard sensors as Guam isn't moving away.

In short I don't believe the US has the capacity to intervene in AR. The 1000 miles off the coast thing was the US's last shot but is reliant on very sensitive chains.

Well, maybe, now, some may see the ‘logics’ of planning for a land-war on the Korean Peninsula as the first-stage in Taiwan re-unification contingecny-planning. They’re a unified bloc, now!
A land war on the border of China would be a dream. C’mon, Mr. ‘Muruhcuh, please send your trans-man soldiers and Marines to die on the hills of Korea! The North Korean agricultural fields need fertilizer!

Camp David Summit: US, South Korea, Japan condemn China's actions, strengthen alliances​

Camp David, Maryland Edited By: Moohita Kaur Garg
Updated: Aug 19, 2023, 03:04 AM IST

guys check out this article. it says that modern ground to air missiles are preventing both ukraine and russia from getting air superiority. after reading this I'm much more confident in a Taiwan scenario. the PLA has probably one of the most robust anti air defenses in the world, with a bewildering array of surface to air missiles. I'm not scared of the USAF or USN anymore lol.

grulle said:

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guys check out this article. it says that modern ground to air missiles are preventing both ukraine and russia from getting air superiority. after reading this I'm much more confident in a Taiwan scenario. the PLA has probably one of the most robust anti air defenses in the world, with a bewildering array of surface to air missiles. I'm not scared of the USAF or USN anymore lol.

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Russian SEAD is a joke so we shouldnt put too much stock into extrapolating air defences' effectiveness against air systems, from the Ukrainian war

During a joint-branch military exercise of the Eastern Theater Command conducted around the rebel island, one unidentified ROCN Chi Yang-class frigate (former Knox-class frigate) was seen pointing its cannon in the direction of an unidentified PLAN warship.

Posted by @沉默的山羊 on Weibo.




Comparing the position of the turret on the rebel frigate when pointing ahead (top) and sideways (bottom).



Add-on: Seems like that aforementioned rebel frigate is the ROCN FFG-937 Hwai Yang (former USS Barbey). Posted by @空军世界 on Weibo.


Seems like someone on the rebel side is itching to sleep with the fishes...

ACuriousPLAFan said:

During a joint-branch military exercise of the Eastern Theater Command conducted around the rebel island, one unidentified ROCN Chi Yang-class frigate (former Knox-class frigate) was seen pointing its cannon in the direction of an unidentified PLAN warship.

Posted by @沉默的山羊 on Weibo.

View attachment 117378
View attachment 117379

Comparing the position of the turret on the rebel frigate when pointing ahead (top) and sideways (bottom).

View attachment 117380

Add-on: Seems like that aforementioned rebel frigate is the ROCN FFG-937 Hwai Yang (former USS Barbey). Posted by @空军世界 on Weibo.
View attachment 117382

Seems like someone on the rebel side is itching to sleep with the fishes...

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The last time a Taiwanese navy boat went against PLAN frigates...

Is it true that taiwanese armed forces are mostly consisting of KMT sympathizers, so in case of war which legibility was murky, the army could disobey the taiwanese government orders? Is pro-japanese/pro-separatist sentiment inflammed solely to make it easier for public to accept any future provocations or moves that could cause taiwan to fall into war? Could the island theoretically split into civil war scenario if a war with mainland was to happen? How would PLA respond to that, and what if US would try to assist the separatist ships? Would China respond?