PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
coolgod said:
No way the USG didn't expect China to respond. China's moves were telegraphed way in advance, plus USG already released many notices previously like list of critical minerals.
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Given that China hadn't really responded to the previous technology sanctions that the US has placed in the past 5 years, the US government could be forgiven for thinking this would continue.

But it does look like China has finally developed a workable domestic DUV semiconductor fabrication line. Now it's a case of scaling up and mass producing. And to think this was all driven by US tech sanctions, because Chinese companies were previously happy to buy foreign. But now they have no choice but to support local equipment makers, and go through the pain and difficulty to develope an alternative. This will also likely become the better, preferred choice, given some time.

Anyway, back on topic
 
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james smith esq

james smith esq

Senior Member
Registered Member
plawolf said:
[...] Notice how so many of the weapons they North Koreans showcased to Shoigu recently looked uncannily like systems the PLA are using? China can truthfully say they are not providing lethal assistance to Russia if North Korea sells Russia the weapons, even if North Korea imports 99% of the core key components from China and just swaps the Chinese labels for Korean ones and does final assembly, just like how carbon China emits manufacturing goods for western companies to be sold to western consumers don’t count as carbon emitted by western countries.
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NK’s weapons look much more like Russian systems, to me!l
 
A

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
Speaking of which...
coolgod said:
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Taiwan VP Lai Ching-te to make stopovers in New York, San Francisco​

No details provided yet about Lai's stay in US​

More PLA training exercises around Taiwan coming mid Aug:)
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Remember that tonight is the one-year anniversary of a Boeing C-40 Clipper, carrying former Speaker of the US House of Representative Nancy Pelosi on her unlawful visit to Taiwan, in support of the extremist separatist forces on the rebel island.

Following the illegal visit by the 3rd-in-command of the US was a 6-day live fire military exercise surrounding Taiwan conducted by the PLA, with:
1. A partial aerial and naval "blockade" of the rebel island;
2. PLAAF and PLANAF fighter jets flew within sight of the rebel island;
3. PLAN warships sailed within sight of the rebel island, alongside a carrier strike group along the strait;
4. PLAGF fired MLRS long-range rockets at the strait in the direction of the rebel island;
5. PLARF fired SRBMs and MRBMs, which travelled right over the rebel island;
etc etc. -
Alongside enacting economic and trade embargoes and bans against the rebel island.

PLA-Taiwan-202208.map.png

If anyone wants to have a re-experience of the tense moments of early-August last year, here you go:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 
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D

davidau

Senior Member
Registered Member
ACuriousPLAFan said:
Speaking of which...


Remember that tonight is the one-year anniversary of a Boeing C-40 Clipper, carrying former Speaker of the US House of Representative Nancy Pelosi on her unlawful visit to Taiwan, in support of the extremist separatist forces on the rebel island.

Following the illegal visit by the 3rd-in-command of the US was a 6-day live fire military exercise surrounding Taiwan conducted by the PLA, with:
1. A partial aerial and naval "blockade" of the rebel island;
2. PLAAF and PLANAF fighter jets flew within sight of the rebel island;
3. PLAN warships sailed within sight of the rebel island, alongside a carrier strike group along the strait;
4. PLAGF fired MLRS long-range rockets at the strait in the direction of the rebel island;
5. PLARF fired SRBMs and MRBMs, which travelled right over the rebel island;
etc etc. -
Alongside enacting economic and trade embargoes and bans against the rebel island.

View attachment 116710

If anyone wants to have a re-experience of the tense moments of early-August last year, here you go:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Click to expand...
It gives China a chance to deploy and excercise the PLAN and PLAF in real situation
 
A

aqh

Junior Member
Registered Member
Guys if the US is denied an operating environment within the 1IC and Guam is made inoperable is that essentially a Chinese victory and will allow them to do AR with ease?
 
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aqh

Junior Member
Registered Member
What other conditions would be necessary for AR?

The only other thing I can think of is B-21s with standoff munitions
 
Blitzo

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
aqh said:
What other conditions would be necessary for AR?

The only other thing I can think of is B-21s with standoff munitions
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The idea that they would carry out war on a whim for no reason apart from their own desire and own initiative is flawed to begin with.

China reserves the right to use military force, however they do not seek to use military force as the first or even second option if they could help it.

Remember that war is always unpredictable and is never without cost (whether it be direct or indirect), and even in an outcome of a "lopsided victory" there will still be costs.



The question should always be: what are the conditions where China may view itself as having to resort to military force.
 
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