PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Yeah I just don't want to fall into confirmation bias so I'm trying to see the best possible argument for the other side. I really just have a very hard time imagining how on earth the US would defeat the PLA in west pac in the 2030s so I just wanted to see if I'm missing something

It cannot. I read from SCMP that China is currently building a powerful long range warship radar, a sea version of AN/FPS-85 radar. It can scan missiles several thousand of miles away.

There will be so many new hardware by 2030

AndrewS said:

Plus remember that US bases in the First Island Chain somehow have to be resupplied, whilst the seaports and airports are under attack. And if we take the example of Japan which is a small but densely populated island with no natural resources that has to import oil and food. In comparison, China is the same size as the continental USA and can be self-sufficient in most respects, plus China shares many land borders where some trade can continue. So Japan would collapse from a blockade long before China does.

Click to expand...

There is no need for a blockade of Japan. Just send hundreds of thousands of cheap piston-based cruise missiles to destroy all oil depots, refineries, power stations, ports, etc. Japan will go back to Stone Age in no time and will not able to support American forces.

aqh said:

Yes I completely agree. I was just trying to construct a scenario where the US would actually be able to compete with China in the1IC. I don't believe that is possible but I want to hear some counter arguments

Click to expand...

If a meteor falls on Shanghai Beijing Shenzhen then US would be able to compete.

That’s only partially a joke; there’s an infinite amount of possibilities where US could beat China but the issue is how likely such a possibility can happen. There’s no point pontificating about such a scenario without investigating it’s likelihood.

So PLA will obviously have the platforms necessary to strike everything in FIC with impunity by 2030, but what does their stockpile actually look like for Long range fires? It's all good to have an abundance of platforms, but if they run out of munition after a few weeks of high tempo combat then those platforms won't do much good. Especially critical will be ballistic missiles of all sorts as production cannot be ramped up quickly and is basically a lynchpin to PLA strategy.

tankphobia said:

So PLA will obviously have the platforms necessary to strike everything in FIC with impunity by 2030, but what does their stockpile actually look like for Long range fires? It's all good to have an abundance of platforms, but if they run out of munition after a few weeks of high tempo combat then those platforms won't do much good. Especially critical will be ballistic missiles of all sorts as production cannot be ramped up quickly and is basically a lynchpin to PLA strategy.

Click to expand...

Pretty sure Chinese industries can churn out Shahed 136 in millions if needed

tankphobia said:

So PLA will obviously have the platforms necessary to strike everything in FIC with impunity by 2030, but what does their stockpile actually look like for Long range fires? It's all good to have an abundance of platforms, but if they run out of munition after a few weeks of high tempo combat then those platforms won't do much good. Especially critical will be ballistic missiles of all sorts as production cannot be ramped up quickly and is basically a lynchpin to PLA strategy.

Click to expand...

ballistic missiles are the easiest to mass produce compared to munitions like jet powered cruise missiles.

They do not require much machining, just extrusion and welding of the casing from tube stock and casting of the fuel. Machining takes a very long time to build huge number of parts because its a batch process, not continuous.

On the other hand, even a turbojet for a cruise missile requires a huge variety of machined parts.

It makes sense to go heavy on cruise missiles if you have a ton of existing turbofans and turbojets that require turbine blades (and thus you stock it) such as if you have a giant civil aviation industry or tons of legacy fighters.

But if your turbine part industry is not that big and you have an urgent need for munitions, solid fuel rockets are the way to go.

delete duplicate

If the FIC is pla territory from land based fires, naval and sortie superiority will the 2ic need h20s with yj21 munitions esq in the 1km+ range roaming around supported by off board sensors to clean up the second island chain?

vincent said:

Pretty sure Chinese industries can churn out Shahed 136 in millions if needed

Click to expand...

Are there any estimates of potential Chinese war material production, for example if war becomes 15% of the country's GDP? The current production rate is nowhere near what it would be if WW3 breaks out.