PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
Indeed.
One probable option would be for Moscow to split some ships from the Northern Fleet and reassign them to the Pacific frontier to reinforce the Pacific Fleet. In particular those heavy hitters i.e. one of the two Kirovs, the Slava-class Marshal Ustinov, a couple of of the Sovremennys and Udaloys, and a couple SSNs.
Though, the Arctic frontier is still going to be heated with the US-led NATO stepping up their presence within the Arctic Circle. One possible way to mitigate this is to reassign warships from the Baltic Fleet to the Northern Fleet, leaving only token amounts of warships there for pure self-defense roles.
Either way, I don't really expect Russia to be able to continuously hold onto their presence in the Baltic Sea, considering that the Baltic has essentially become a NATO Lake, with the port city of Saint Petersburg and the sole entry into the Baltic for Russia effectively surrounded by NATO countries.
If China catches wind that Japan will seriously attempt to enact nuclear weapons or even embark on nuclear aggression, that needs to spark an immediate invasion of Japan, before WMDs are acquired.
It is far too dangerous towards the world to allow Japanese nazis to acquire WMDs, because these extremists will immediately seek to use them against the rest of Asia (such as the above think tankers suggesting their use against Taiwan province), which will inevitably lead to global scale destruction.
It would be no exaggeration to say that by invading Japan before a device can be assembled, China would be saving the vast majority of Japan's citizens.
We can only pray that firstly the imperialists in Tokyo do not have such extreme plans, and secondly, that the leaders in Beijing will be swift and final in their response should the first be true.
(If this post is deemed too provocative, kindly remove it.)
If Tokyo once again desires to become the madman of Asia-Pacific, then I think that Beijing MUST respond with her own ways.
Now that we see it - Perhaps the ONLY WAY to force Japan out of militarily intervening in the Operation AR of Taiwan without resulting in widespread, catastrophic civilian casualties across Japan and East Asia - Is to force Tokyo to either:
Reasoning? Judging by what we are seeing in Ukraine right now, alongside the sentiments spreading across the leadership in Tokyo leading up to Operation AR - Maybe the only surest way to safeguard China's security and safety in the WestPac for the foreseeable future in the face of utterly unhinged and deranged ultranationalists in Tokyo that are backed by the imperialists in DC is through the threat of sudden and complete annihilation of themselves, their homeland, and their countrymen.
Pick wisely, Tokyo. Because you won't get a second chance.
Japan is a nice place to travel around, really. It would be a real shame if some ignoramus a$$h0les decide to end all of that.
Old debts, new debts - All must be settled eventually. Nobody can run away from this.
Alright, then. I've had ENOUGH of these ignorant, bloodthirsty and schizophrenic ultranationalist fossils that should've been resting in their urns long ago.
If Tokyo once again desires to become the madman of Asia-Pacific, then I think that Beijing MUST respond with her own ways.
Now that we see it - Perhaps the ONLY WAY to force Japan out of militarily intervening in the Operation AR of Taiwan without resulting in widespread, catastrophic civilian casualties across Japan and East Asia - Is to force Tokyo to either:
Right at the beginning or early stages of Operation AR.
Reasoning? Judging by what we are seeing in Ukraine right now, alongside the sentiments spreading across the leadership in Tokyo leading up to Operation AR - Maybe the only surest way to safeguard China's security and safety in the WestPac for the foreseeable future in the face of utterly unhinged and deranged ultranationalists in Tokyo that are backed by the imperialists in DC is through the threat of sudden and complete annihilation of themselves, their homeland, and their countrymen.
Pick wisely, Tokyo. Because you won't get a second chance.
Japan is a nice place to travel around, really. It would be a real shame if some ignoramus a$$h0les decide to end all of that.
Old debts, new debts - All must be settled eventually. Nobody can run away from this.
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An outright invasion of the Japanese home islands is not going to work, I'm afraid. Just read Operation Downfall to see how perilous and difficult it is to execute an all-out amphibious invasion against the Japanese home islands, even with overwhelming aerial and naval superiority on the Allied side against a completely-broken-yet-fervently-fanatic Imperial Japan.
The only way that Beijing can prevent a deranged and derilious Tokyo from ever acquiring WMDs is to stop them before they could get their hands on one - Either through Japan developing their own WMDs, or getting WMDs from the US - Or both.
Invading Japan won't be limited to wasting a lot of time, effort and resulting in an unimaginable number of casualties on the PLA and the Japanese populace alike, but also providing time and justification for the ultranationalists to speed up the development of their WMDs, and/or secure the stationing of Murican nukes on Japanese soil.
Thankfully, China today has a significant edge over Japan in the strategic nuclear domain, which are:
1. China already has hundreds of readily-available nuclear warheads that can be launched as soon as the order is given;
2. China already has all the means required to deliver those nuclear warheads towards Japan within minutes of leaving their launcher units; and
3. China already has the backing and support of Russia, who is also nuclear-armed superpower without NFU policy and standing firmly on the anti-Japan side as well.
Hence, the aforementioned advantages must be put to good use in the right place and at the right time.
That is, by forcing Tokyo to - Abandon their WMD development, unconditionally surrender to China, accept full occupation by the PLA, and force the US military out of Japan entirely - With the threat of immediate and total national annihilation, as per my post above.
The key is to make sure that Tokyo would never even have the time to consider and think about options - Either accept China's final ultimatum with immediate effect, or witness all of their cities going up in mushroom fireballs with their very own eyes.
Only this, I believe, can actually knock some sense into the skulls of those mentally deranged Japanese ultranationalists.
@ACuriousPLAFan using nukes will always lead to difficult consequences at best.
Chinese defenses are counted on to withstand a combined US and Japanese attack on Taiwan. So that is not an ultimate red line.
However, Japan acquiring nukes is, because it is a violation of the international rules established after WW2, which were signed back then to keep countries like China safe.
So in that case, China also has no need to resort to nukes, when it can use conventional forces.
There will be a decent sized time window before Japanese nukes will be a serious threat. India has had nukes since forever, and they're not truly a nuclear threat to China.
However, during the time period between Japan beginning nuclear development and acquiring a credible deterrent, invasion is a must. And it will be bloody, not just for Japan. But if it happens, it's because Japan didn't give anyone else a choice.
Chinese defenses are counted on to withstand a combined US and Japanese attack on Taiwan. So that is not an ultimate red line.
However, Japan acquiring nukes is, because it is a violation of the international rules established after WW2, which were signed back then to keep countries like China safe.
So in that case, China also has no need to resort to nukes, when it can use conventional forces.
There will be a decent sized time window before Japanese nukes will be a serious threat. India has had nukes since forever, and they're not truly a nuclear threat to China.
However, during the time period between Japan beginning nuclear development and acquiring a credible deterrent, invasion is a must. And it will be bloody, not just for Japan. But if it happens, it's because Japan didn't give anyone else a choice.
I'm actually using the method of brinkmanship here.
Besides, my case is based on the assumption where the Tokyo government has become utterly unhinged and deranged, such that they would resort to devolving into a dystopian, totalitarian authority that resorts to iron-fist crushing widespread dissent from the general anti-war, anti-nuclear populace of Japan with the JSDF. That is, they would stop at nothing in order to achieve their goals of seriously trying to fvck with China.
To simply put - Japan acquiring WMD is a big no-no.
Either Japan can keep their hands off nukes forever - Or Japan can become a new province of the PRC.
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Anyways, got my emotions running high for too long already. Time to go back to some actual stuff.
You know well enough that turning Japan into a province is simply going to create more issues in the mid to long run. If you are insistent on that approach then you do what the Americans did by making them a vassal. Don’t even get started on foreign covert operations to drain significant resources from China year after year to quell any issues arising from that island.