Can you list some of these temples? I am curious now.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
Yasukuni shrine is a temple dedicated to war criminals who died invading other countries for Imperial Japan.
Imagine a German cathedral dedicated to the Wehrmacht and Waffen SS who died invading other countries during Nazi Germany.
I'm no expert on anything but I'm seeing some major flaws in this post of yours? Namely your math.
You say assuming 90 aircraft per CVN but then go ahead and multiply 7 CNV by 80 aircraft for a total of 560.
Then there's when you do 1150-560 which is equal to 590 but you incorrectly write 1150-560=740, but then immediately multiply the correct answer of 590 by your 75% readiness rate.
Also 590*0.75 is equal to 442.5 not 423.
And finally 560+423 is 983, not 1083 as you said.
I am extremely confused my your math and how you repeatedly contradict yourself in your own post with these numbers...
It also seems like you forgot to or neglected to provide a readiness rate for the PLAN and PLAAF as you did for the USN and USAF?
I won't question the estimates on future assets as we have no idea what they plan to procure until that time comes.
Yeah, I can see how that would be controversial. Japan doesn't strike my as the type of country to turn back on established tradition and history though, so the only way they'd change is by force.
Math aside, we'd also benefit from ORBAT analysis. Equipment numbers are a good proxy for military power, but ultimately, equipment doesn't fight, units do.
As for an ORBAT analysis or anything of the sort, we'll have to depend on someone more knowledgable as I have no qualifications for anything like that in any capacity. Consider me captain obvious, I just state the obvious and call out people when they make questionable statements.
I changed my numbers midway lol. Ignore the calculations.
After WW1 the French made a mistake. They fought a massive world war, lost millions of men and suffered great devastation to their lands. And for all that, the only thing they got was a very small and unimportant province. Germany lost very little except for suffering humiliation. Even at the time of the peace treaty people already expected this to be a 20 year armistice.
If you fight a world war, you have to substantially change the balance of power so that you avoid the next war. Of course the WW2 option of occupying the defeated enemy is impossible in the nuclear age. But China can't be satisfied with only taking Taiwan if the US intervenes. If half the American navy is sunk, it would be silly not to take advantage and push further. At the very least, Japan and the Philippines must be removed from the American alliance system.
Of course it would be preferable to take over Taiwan as quickly as possible and avoid a world war. But if you're even considering a war against the US, the victory has to be crushing enough to avoid the next war. That's why I'm against a blockade, Taiwan must be taken in a campaign of a few days
It's impossible to invade Taiwan without involving Japan. There wouldn't be anywhere for America to base the invasion forces.
China has prepped justification for dealing with Japan. They have begun steps so that they can be ready to restore the Ryukyu state. There is also an old ww2 era mandate giving China power to determine Japanese borders, due to Japan losing the 2nd Sino-Japanese war.
In the 1st phase, China would focus on holding Taiwan. That means flooding the area with naval and air assets, so any incoming fleet will be spotted and engaged. Meanwhile, the Army will conduct operations against the KMT, in order to set up basing for missiles and missile defenses deeper inside the province. The missile forces will clear out operation areas for the Army, while also suppressing US/Japanese bases in tandem with the Air Force.
Once defenses inside Taiwan have been built up to a satisfactory level and the offensive power of the American-Japanese Axis reduced or destroyed, a 2nd phase consisting of a blockade over Japan can be started. Japan is not self sufficient and doesn't have hardened infrastructure, weeks or a few months of blockade, even a softer blockade, will create the right conditions for landings on Ryukyu and Kyushu.
The scenario assumes North and South Korean neutrality, as China doesn't call NK due to fears of further escalation and SK is afraid of devastration.
Russia is assumed to be "neutral" but fly ISR support for China and provide military access, with them potentially joining in later.
China has prepped justification for dealing with Japan. They have begun steps so that they can be ready to restore the Ryukyu state. There is also an old ww2 era mandate giving China power to determine Japanese borders, due to Japan losing the 2nd Sino-Japanese war.
In the 1st phase, China would focus on holding Taiwan. That means flooding the area with naval and air assets, so any incoming fleet will be spotted and engaged. Meanwhile, the Army will conduct operations against the KMT, in order to set up basing for missiles and missile defenses deeper inside the province. The missile forces will clear out operation areas for the Army, while also suppressing US/Japanese bases in tandem with the Air Force.
Once defenses inside Taiwan have been built up to a satisfactory level and the offensive power of the American-Japanese Axis reduced or destroyed, a 2nd phase consisting of a blockade over Japan can be started. Japan is not self sufficient and doesn't have hardened infrastructure, weeks or a few months of blockade, even a softer blockade, will create the right conditions for landings on Ryukyu and Kyushu.
The scenario assumes North and South Korean neutrality, as China doesn't call NK due to fears of further escalation and SK is afraid of devastration.
Russia is assumed to be "neutral" but fly ISR support for China and provide military access, with them potentially joining in later.
Russia's Pacific Fleet is still in the process of renewal. It is way behind the Japanese Navy let alone the US Navy.
Unlike Japan, Russia has to split its Navy to cover its huge coastline which means they have a vast numerical inferiority in the Pacific.
The situation of the Pacific Fleet is expected to improve over the next decade as more Project 20380/5, Project 22800 corvettes, Project 636.3, and Project 885M submarines enter service.
Unlike Japan, Russia has to split its Navy to cover its huge coastline which means they have a vast numerical inferiority in the Pacific.
The situation of the Pacific Fleet is expected to improve over the next decade as more Project 20380/5, Project 22800 corvettes, Project 636.3, and Project 885M submarines enter service.
Since there is no more information about the Military simulation held by JFSS in 2023, I continue to translate the summary of the contents of the simulation in 2022 by "Two Tailed Comet".
Part of the content comes from Weibo.
List of participants for 2021. The left side indicates the role they played in the simulation. It can be seen that the participants are not civilians, most of whom are politicians and retired generals.
The focus of the simulation is not to determine the direction and outcome of the Taiwan Strait crisis, but to simulate Japan's internal response mechanism to the Taiwan Strait crisis.
The simulation in August 2022 was influenced by the Ukrainian war, making Japan's decisions more extreme and radical.
This part of the video no longer describes the specific process, but focuses on Japanese decision-making.
1、This simulation envisions a conflict breaking out in 2027, and China has established a comprehensive military advantage over the United States, including nuclear weapons.
2、Japan assumed that China would adopt the strategy of "limited nuclear war" and use Tactical nuclear weapon to deter the United States and prevent the war from escalating into a full-scale nuclear war.
3、No longer envisioning "internal problems" in China, and China will have the ability to launch a large-scale public opinion offensive against Japan to trigger anti war within Japan.
4、However, even if the US military loses its advantage and there is a strong anti war sentiment within Japan, the Japanese government still insists on confrontation.
5、Assuming that China will expand the "exercise area" to the Ryukyu Islands, Japan will not shrink, and will be ready for a military confrontation on the Diaoyu Islands.
6、Japan will not participate in US military operations in the South China Sea. They will concentrate all their efforts to defend Japan's homeland and abandon the unrealistic plan of "using force to rescue overseas Japanese". Japan's military forces will be fully concentrated in the East China Sea region.
7、In the 2021 simulation, Japan would passively intervene in conflicts at the request of the Americans, but in 2022, Japan chose to actively intervene. Even without the support of the United States, conflicts around the Diaoyu Islands will be regarded as "aggression against Japan". Japan will require the United States to fulfill its obligations under the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan and let the United States participate in the war at all costs.
Japan will send warships to the Diaoyu Islands to proactively escalate the scale of the confrontation.
8、The Taiwan Strait crisis will be seen as a major threat to Japan's survival, and on this basis, Japan will demand maximum assistance from the United States.
9、Japan plans to abrogate(If conflict breaks out) the Japan–China Joint Communiqué of 1972 on the ground that "China undermines the stability of the Taiwan Strait".
10、After the conflict broke out, Japan planned to move the residents of the Ryukyu Islands to Japan's main island.
11、Japan's economy will enter the mobilization mode, stop all foreign aid and issue emergency treasury bond.
12、The United States is required to deploy mid-range missile and nuclear weapons as soon as possible. At the same time, it is up to the Prime Minister to decide whether to abolish the principle of no nuclear weapons.
13、Protect the submarine communications cable leading to Taiwan Island from being cut off, and strengthen domestic security at the same time. If necessary, monitor and control the 790000 Chinese people operating in Japan.
14、Japan will demand that the United States place Taiwan under nuclear protection.
——The anchor believes that the experience of the Ukrainian war indicates that the possibility of Americans being driven into passivity by "allies" exists, and the strong anti Russian sentiment in Eastern Europe allows them to threaten the United States to choose between "aid or loss of credibility" through public opinion and diplomatic pressure. So Japan can also adopt the same approach to force Americans to passively participate in the war.
It can be predicted that Japan's policies in the future will be more radical, and the policy restrictions on JSDF will be lifted to develop and produce Offensive weapon. When facing severe internal social problems, the Japanese government is highly likely to choose military adventures.
Part of the content comes from Weibo.
List of participants for 2021. The left side indicates the role they played in the simulation. It can be seen that the participants are not civilians, most of whom are politicians and retired generals.
The focus of the simulation is not to determine the direction and outcome of the Taiwan Strait crisis, but to simulate Japan's internal response mechanism to the Taiwan Strait crisis.
The simulation in August 2022 was influenced by the Ukrainian war, making Japan's decisions more extreme and radical.
This part of the video no longer describes the specific process, but focuses on Japanese decision-making.
1、This simulation envisions a conflict breaking out in 2027, and China has established a comprehensive military advantage over the United States, including nuclear weapons.
2、Japan assumed that China would adopt the strategy of "limited nuclear war" and use Tactical nuclear weapon to deter the United States and prevent the war from escalating into a full-scale nuclear war.
3、No longer envisioning "internal problems" in China, and China will have the ability to launch a large-scale public opinion offensive against Japan to trigger anti war within Japan.
4、However, even if the US military loses its advantage and there is a strong anti war sentiment within Japan, the Japanese government still insists on confrontation.
5、Assuming that China will expand the "exercise area" to the Ryukyu Islands, Japan will not shrink, and will be ready for a military confrontation on the Diaoyu Islands.
6、Japan will not participate in US military operations in the South China Sea. They will concentrate all their efforts to defend Japan's homeland and abandon the unrealistic plan of "using force to rescue overseas Japanese". Japan's military forces will be fully concentrated in the East China Sea region.
7、In the 2021 simulation, Japan would passively intervene in conflicts at the request of the Americans, but in 2022, Japan chose to actively intervene. Even without the support of the United States, conflicts around the Diaoyu Islands will be regarded as "aggression against Japan". Japan will require the United States to fulfill its obligations under the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan and let the United States participate in the war at all costs.
Japan will send warships to the Diaoyu Islands to proactively escalate the scale of the confrontation.
8、The Taiwan Strait crisis will be seen as a major threat to Japan's survival, and on this basis, Japan will demand maximum assistance from the United States.
9、Japan plans to abrogate(If conflict breaks out) the Japan–China Joint Communiqué of 1972 on the ground that "China undermines the stability of the Taiwan Strait".
10、After the conflict broke out, Japan planned to move the residents of the Ryukyu Islands to Japan's main island.
11、Japan's economy will enter the mobilization mode, stop all foreign aid and issue emergency treasury bond.
12、The United States is required to deploy mid-range missile and nuclear weapons as soon as possible. At the same time, it is up to the Prime Minister to decide whether to abolish the principle of no nuclear weapons.
13、Protect the submarine communications cable leading to Taiwan Island from being cut off, and strengthen domestic security at the same time. If necessary, monitor and control the 790000 Chinese people operating in Japan.
14、Japan will demand that the United States place Taiwan under nuclear protection.
——The anchor believes that the experience of the Ukrainian war indicates that the possibility of Americans being driven into passivity by "allies" exists, and the strong anti Russian sentiment in Eastern Europe allows them to threaten the United States to choose between "aid or loss of credibility" through public opinion and diplomatic pressure. So Japan can also adopt the same approach to force Americans to passively participate in the war.
It can be predicted that Japan's policies in the future will be more radical, and the policy restrictions on JSDF will be lifted to develop and produce Offensive weapon. When facing severe internal social problems, the Japanese government is highly likely to choose military adventures.