Since there is no more information about the Military simulation held by JFSS in 2023, I continue to translate the summary of the contents of the simulation in 2022 by "Two Tailed Comet".
Part of the content comes from Weibo.
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List of participants for 2021. The left side indicates the role they played in the simulation. It can be seen that the participants are not civilians, most of whom are politicians and retired generals.
The focus of the simulation is not to determine the direction and outcome of the Taiwan Strait crisis, but to simulate Japan's internal response mechanism to the Taiwan Strait crisis.
The simulation in August 2022 was influenced by the Ukrainian war, making Japan's decisions more extreme and radical.
This part of the video no longer describes the specific process, but focuses on Japanese decision-making.
1、This simulation envisions a conflict breaking out in 2027, and China has established a comprehensive military advantage over the United States, including nuclear weapons.
2、Japan assumed that China would adopt the strategy of "limited nuclear war" and use Tactical nuclear weapon to deter the United States and prevent the war from escalating into a full-scale nuclear war.
3、No longer envisioning "internal problems" in China, and China will have the ability to launch a large-scale public opinion offensive against Japan to trigger anti war within Japan.
4、However, even if the US military loses its advantage and there is a strong anti war sentiment within Japan, the Japanese government still insists on confrontation.
5、Assuming that China will expand the "exercise area" to the Ryukyu Islands, Japan will not shrink, and will be ready for a military confrontation on the Diaoyu Islands.
6、Japan will not participate in US military operations in the South China Sea. They will concentrate all their efforts to defend Japan's homeland and abandon the unrealistic plan of "using force to rescue overseas Japanese". Japan's military forces will be fully concentrated in the East China Sea region.
7、In the 2021 simulation, Japan would passively intervene in conflicts at the request of the Americans, but in 2022, Japan chose to actively intervene. Even without the support of the United States, conflicts around the Diaoyu Islands will be regarded as "aggression against Japan". Japan will require the United States to fulfill its obligations under the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan and let the United States participate in the war at all costs.
Japan will send warships to the Diaoyu Islands to proactively escalate the scale of the confrontation.
8、The Taiwan Strait crisis will be seen as a major threat to Japan's survival, and on this basis, Japan will demand maximum assistance from the United States.
9、Japan plans to abrogate(If conflict breaks out) the Japan–China Joint Communiqué of 1972 on the ground that "China undermines the stability of the Taiwan Strait".
10、After the conflict broke out, Japan planned to move the residents of the Ryukyu Islands to Japan's main island.
11、Japan's economy will enter the mobilization mode, stop all foreign aid and issue emergency treasury bond.
12、The United States is required to deploy mid-range missile and nuclear weapons as soon as possible. At the same time, it is up to the Prime Minister to decide whether to abolish the principle of no nuclear weapons.
13、Protect the submarine communications cable leading to Taiwan Island from being cut off, and strengthen domestic security at the same time. If necessary, monitor and control the 790000 Chinese people operating in Japan.
14、Japan will demand that the United States place Taiwan under nuclear protection.
——The anchor believes that the experience of the Ukrainian war indicates that the possibility of Americans being driven into passivity by "allies" exists, and the strong anti Russian sentiment in Eastern Europe allows them to threaten the United States to choose between "aid or loss of credibility" through public opinion and diplomatic pressure. So Japan can also adopt the same approach to force Americans to passively participate in the war.
It can be predicted that Japan's policies in the future will be more radical, and the policy restrictions on JSDF will be lifted to develop and produce Offensive weapon. When facing severe internal social problems, the Japanese government is highly likely to choose military adventures.
