PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The video of "Two Tailed Comet" analyzes the high-level Military simulation conducted by Japan in 2021 and 2022.
Currently, there is only the first part and no subtitles.
Summary of the content:
1. Japan's plan is to use the Taiwan Strait crisis to expand military power. Once Japan's shipping is threatened, no one will oppose JSDF's fleet expanding its scope of operations.
2. In 2020-2021, the western world, including Japan, has a strange optimism about the situation in China. They believe that China's economy has been in trouble because of COVID-19, but in 2022 they give up this idea.
3. Japan had envisioned attempting to protect its economic interests in China, but in the 2022 simulation, Japan chose to abandon its economic interests for strategic security.
4. Japan is very concerned about the possibility of large-scale cyber attacks. The fragility of Japan's network protection capabilities cannot be improved in the short term. The heavy responsibility of network defense will be fully entrusted to the United States.
5. After China established a large-scale "exercise zone", Japan planned to use diplomatic propaganda to occupy the moral high ground (although I think this is meaningless), and then the most important step was to participate in the US military's "free navigation" in the South China Sea to deter China.
6. Japan plans to provide secret military support to Taiwan, such as secretly establishing military communication mechanisms and opening some airports to Taiwan.
7. Confusing potential opponents and using the uncertainty of the deployment of nuclear weapons by the United States in Japan to deter the enemy.
——The above content is based on the nomal model(”The Taiwan Strait Crisis model“ )envisioned by Japan.

Japan also envisioned a 'Berlin Crisis model', but the content was absurd. It is assumed that tourists returning from Chinese Mainland to Taiwan have detected a new virus, so China chooses to block the island in the name of "physical isolation".
In this model, the Japanese strategy is to ensure that the connection with Taiwan Island is not interrupted.
They will ensure the control of Yonaguni and protect the submarine communications cable from being cut off. When necessary, it is necessary to ensure smooth sea passage to Taiwan.
Meanwhile, Japan will cooperate with the United States to open an air corridor in the southeastern part of Taiwan Island under the name of "humanitarianism". Support for Taiwan Island was achieved by replicating the Berlin Strategic Air Transport scenario.
Of course, the achievement of this goal must be based on the premise that there will be no armed conflict between the two sides.

The last scenario is landing operation, or "Normandy model".
In 2021, Japan assumed that the conflict would erupt in 2024. Japan has put forward an interesting point that the Chinese Mainland will consciously encourage the political radicals on the island of Taiwan, and those radical slogans of independence will help to provide a political reason for military action.
The Japanese have considerable expectations of the United States. It is envisaged that the United States will deploy tactical missiles and anti-ship missiles in Japan and the Philippines, and deter opponents through the uncertainty of deploying nuclear weapons.(But it is obvious that this idea is not very realistic at present)
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The second half of the content starts around 60:00. I'm in a hurry to go to the bathroom, so I won't translate the rest for now.

So know we know that Tokyo have got their feet floating off the ground too - Just like their masters in Washington DC.

Fine. China must do what China must.

If Japan once again desires to bring harm and suffering against China and the Chinese people, then Beijing should consider the absolute and total liberation of Japan and its people from:
1. The imperialist control by the United States, and
2. The imperialist control of Japanese ultranationalists -
As the ultimate sacred duty that all members of the People's Liberation Army and the Chinese people must shoulder and perform to the utmost until success is firmly in grasp.

Like a popular saying amongst Chinese netizens when it comes to Japan: 新帐旧账一起算!”
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
So know we know that Tokyo have got their feet floating off the ground too - Just like their masters in Washington DC.

Fine. China must do what China must.

If Japan once again desires to bring harm and suffering against China and the Chinese people, then Beijing should consider the absolute and total liberation of Japan and its people from:
1. The imperialist control by the United States, and
2. The imperialist control of Japanese ultranationalists -
As the ultimate sacred duty that all members of the People's Liberation Army and the Chinese people must shoulder and perform to the utmost until success is firmly in grasp.

Like a popular saying amongst Chinese netizens when it comes to Japan: 新帐旧账一起算!”
We also must understand that Hokkaido and Okinawa are not Japan. Historically Japan has only been Honshu, Shikoku and Kyushu. Hokkaido was the home of a Caucasoid Siberian people known as the Ainu, and Okinawa was a Chinese tributary Kingdom of Ryukyu. These were only conquered by Imperial Japan in the 19th century.

Hokkaido, ethnically and geographically speaking, may have been a part of Russia if it wasn't for Imperial Japan. Ryukyu was a full fledged independent country.
 

zhangjim

Junior Member
Registered Member
Well, I don't want to translate too much about the combat process, as this simulation not only includes military response, but also includes the Japanese government's diplomatic and domestic response strategies in future conflicts.
Japan will actively or passively provide the southwestern islands to the United States as bases for deploying military assets.
China will make landfall at dusk and use night time to consolidate its position,then the script developed in a strange direction, and China suddenly launched a surprise attack on the Diaoyu Islands during the naval battle.

Then the ships of the Japanese Maritime Security Team were attacked, the network, satellites and GPS were attacked and interfered, and the assets of Japanese enterprises in China were frozen. Some executives of Japanese companies have been arrested , then China cut off its foreign trade routes for rare earths.

The US network was also attacked. The Cyberwarfare between the two sides broke out in an all-round way. Then the US military intervened in the war and asked Japan to provide full support.

Then Yonaguni was quickly occupied. Subsequently, China will announce the "reconstruction of the Ryukyu Kingdom".
——Seeing this, the Japanese imagination has become very strange.

Okay, then the Japanese claimed to have been attacked by force and sent their troops to participate in the war.
Subsequently, the conflict escalated further, and both China and the United States implemented asset freezes and economic sanctions.
Russia expressed a "neutral" stance, but mobilized its troops to attract Japan's attention.
The war quickly reached a stalemate, and Japan's military bases and air force on the southwestern islands suffered serious losses. However, with the decrease in missile strike intensity(after a month of attack), Japan will have the opportunity to gradually resume the operation of military bases.
However, JSDF lacks effective offensive capability and is forced to change strategies to defend against possible landing operation.

In the fierce air battle, China lost half of its fighter jets. But the air power of the United States and Japan also suffered a devastating blow, allowing China to gain maritime and air advantages.
But something happened in the Indian direction, which allowed the United States to shift more troops to participate in the war and shift the situation towards a direction that was beneficial to the United States and Japan.
Unable to end the war quickly, Chinese Mainland was forced to admit defeat.

——This concludes the simulation.
The evaluation of this is somewhat reasonable - at least much better than similar ideas in the United States. But the problem is also very obvious, which is to hope for resolute resistance on Taiwan Island (like Ukraine a year later).
Many retired senior Japanese officers participated in the military simulation. This can be seen as the plan of the Japanese leadership: if there is a stalemate in the war (Taiwan Island successfully withstands the attack), then the Japanese will actively intervene in the war.

Of course, the anchor mercilessly mocked the naivety of this idea. The important premise of this idea is that China will actively launch an attack on Japan and the United States. This will enable the Japanese government to respond to domestic anti war activists with the most legitimate reasons. And Japan and the United States need to deploy troops at least a month in advance (before the crisis turns into war), but the Ukrainian war shows that Americans lack such determination and ability.
In addition, as always, Japan envisions that China will fall into a crisis of collapse in the future. This has turned military action into an adventurous act to save the regime. Meanwhile, this means that the Japanese believe that as long as the war continues, the situation will develop in a favorable direction for the Japanese(Waiting for the opponent's collapse).

Interestingly, this assumption, like the Western assumption of the outcome of the Ukrainian war, both believe that procrastination will lead the enemy to failure.
Note that this is a simulation for 2021, so the content is overly optimistic. The simulation for 2022 starts in August, please forgive me for not having the energy to translate tonight.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The specific content starts from 60:33. Actually, I haven't seen this part yet. It is said that Japan's simulation in 2022 is more reasonable.

So know we know that Tokyo has become utterly unhinged and deranged too, just like their masters in Washington DC.
The comment section of the video also shares the same view. We always thought that the leadership of various countries should make decisions based on rationality, but reality tells us that this doesn't seem to be the case.
 

aqh

Junior Member
Registered Member
We know from Desert Storm.

Prior to Desert Storm there was a 6 month buildup across the border in Saudi Arabia before the US was able to attack Iraq. During this time, Iraq mostly just watched.

In 1992 US deployed 6 CBGs:

Midway (CV), Saratoga (CV), Ranger (CV), America (CV), JFK (CV), Roosevelt (CVN).

In 1991 their navy was much larger with 16x CBGs total: 9x CV (1x MDWY, 4x FRSTL, 4x KT HWK), 7x CVN (1x ENT , 6x NMTZ ).

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


They also note that in Desert Storm, 5/6 CSGs in theater were conventional, consisting of a 5/9 readiness for CVs.

So this analysis of 2030 projections will be as favourable as possible towards the US to see a worst case scenario against the PLA. I am using desert shield as a point of analysis to see how much they can surge (important to note the US won't have 6 months of forewarning).

Air force (USN & USAF)

This is across both all bases and CVNs. So assuming there is a 2/3 readiness rate and the US has (optimistically) by this time 1150 5th gen jets. Assuming they can fit 90 planes per CVN (I'm unsure how a 5th gen jet affects this) and 11 CVNs I will round up and aussume 7 cvns * 80 planes = 560 planes. In addition adding the rest of the 5th gen fleet with a highly optimistic 75% availability rate (1150-560=740) 590*0.75 = 423. This totals 1083

Air Force PLAAF

Assuming >500 j20s by 2025 and adding 120 per year would =1100. Assuming J35 production = (very pessimistically ) 30 a year on average this would = 150 by 2030. This totals 1250.
This would mean the PLAAF forces in west pac would be more than 15% greater than the amount US forces can bring. This also doesn't take into account how diverse and spread out PLAAF bases are compared to the US and many many aircraft will be lost by ASBMs on CSGs and H20 sorties with inital missiles slavos on Anderson Guam etcetra.

Navy (USN)

Assuming TICS are retired and they carry on building 2 Burkes a year this would mean maybe 85 burkes. Assuming a very optimistic deployment rate of 0.7 = 60 destroyers in the pacfic. Assuming they deploy their best flight 3s that is around 15 SPY 6s and 45 SPY 1s.

The US as of now has around 36 Virginas/Sea wolf. they are building around 2 per year. That will equal 50 by 2030. Assuming a .7 deployment rate that means there will be 35 in the pacific.

Navy (PLAN)

Assuming this build-up continues this means there will probably be 55+ 052Ds and 24+ 055s. That is probably around 80 destroyers all of which have AESA and the type 346 variants are > the SPY family.

The PLA has started on the type 055. I expect from 2026 2- 6 a year. That would mean there could be from 8-20 in the pacific. This is the only place where the US outnumbers the PLA . However when you addition up the SW corvette various sensor shooter fleet its likely the PLA will have superiority in the 1IC and contest in the 2IC.

PLAARF

The US will not possess similar capabilities to he PLAAF to bring down missile fire due to distance and lack of space of bases. Land based ASBM and general TELs and BM forces indicate the Chinese will have a massive long range fires advantage that will splice up US forces even before they make contact. It will be a constant support arm of the PLA attacking US logistics ships planes bases and causing hell.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
So this analysis of 2030 projections will be as favourable as possible towards the US to see a worst case scenario against the PLA. I am using desert shield as a point of analysis to see how much they can surge (important to note the US won't have 6 months of forewarning).

Air force (USN & USAF)

This is across both all bases and CVNs. So assuming there is a 2/3 readiness rate and the US has (optimistically) by this time 1150 5th gen jets. Assuming they can fit 90 planes per CVN (I'm unsure how a 5th gen jet affects this) and 11 CVNs I will round up and aussume 7 cvns * 80 planes = 560 planes. In addition adding the rest of the 5th gen fleet with a highly optimistic 75% availability rate (1150-560=740) 590*0.75 = 423. This totals 1083

Air Force PLAAF

Assuming >500 j20s by 2025 and adding 120 per year would =1100. Assuming J35 production = (very pessimistically ) 30 a year on average this would = 150 by 2030. This totals 1250.
This would mean the PLAAF forces in west pac would be more than 15% greater than the amount US forces can bring. This also doesn't take into account how diverse and spread out PLAAF bases are compared to the US and many many aircraft will be lost by ASBMs on CSGs and H20 sorties with inital missiles slavos on Anderson Guam etcetra.

Navy (USN)

Assuming TICS are retired and they carry on building 2 Burkes a year this would mean maybe 85 burkes. Assuming a very optimistic deployment rate of 0.7 = 60 destroyers in the pacfic. Assuming they deploy their best flight 3s that is around 15 SPY 6s and 45 SPY 1s.

The US as of now has around 36 Virginas/Sea wolf. they are building around 2 per year. That will equal 50 by 2030. Assuming a .7 deployment rate that means there will be 35 in the pacific.

Navy (PLAN)

Assuming this build-up continues this means there will probably be 55+ 052Ds and 24+ 055s. That is probably around 80 destroyers all of which have AESA and the type 346 variants are > the SPY family.

The PLA has started on the type 055. I expect from 2026 2- 6 a year. That would mean there could be from 8-20 in the pacific. This is the only place where the US outnumbers the PLA . However when you addition up the SW corvette various sensor shooter fleet its likely the PLA will have superiority in the 1IC and contest in the 2IC.

PLAARF

The US will not possess similar capabilities to he PLAAF to bring down missile fire due to distance and lack of space of bases. Land based ASBM and general TELs and BM forces indicate the Chinese will have a massive long range fires advantage that will splice up US forces even before they make contact. It will be a constant support arm of the PLA attacking US logistics ships planes bases and causing hell.
7/11 carriers would be an unprecedented level of readiness. Desert Storm only has 38% readiness of 6/16 CBGs with 6 months forewarning and a US fresh off of the very high readiness of the Cold War and Vietnam. That was also with a majority of CVs that had short maintenance cycles, as their CVNs were in drydock.

90 planes per CV is also a huge overestimate since that many planes would slow down sortie generation, and was using Cold War era projections that had smaller specialized planes like the F-8. They now typically go to sea with 40-50 fighters, either F-18 or F-35, and 4 AWACs.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

aqh

Junior Member
Registered Member
Yes so the US force will likely be 30-40% smaller then that best case scenario I described. This means it would take the PLAARF to have useless missiles/ not hit all US logistical systems/ a 2 to 1 ratio across most systems/ PLA ISTAR capabilities across the pacific being much worse than thought for the US to maybe eek out a draw.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
We also must understand that Hokkaido and Okinawa are not Japan. Historically Japan has only been Honshu, Shikoku and Kyushu. Hokkaido was the home of a Caucasoid Siberian people known as the Ainu, and Okinawa was a Chinese tributary Kingdom of Ryukyu. These were only conquered by Imperial Japan in the 19th century.

Hokkaido, ethnically and geographically speaking, may have been a part of Russia if it wasn't for Imperial Japan. Ryukyu was a full fledged independent country.
I also think it likely that any attack on Taiwan will not end just when the invaders have been repulsed.

If Japan refuses to invade, China will easily roll the isolated US forces since there's nowhere to base them. Therefore without Imperial Japanese aggression, there can be no Taiwan invasion.

China needs to do something about Japan. It's unacceptable that they're allowed to keep threatening Asia in general and Taiwan in particular even after losing WW2. But looking at the size of China's military shopping list, we can see that it is clearly not just for self defense. So the leadership is preparing for action further down the road.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I also think it likely that any attack on Taiwan will not end just when the invaders have been repulsed.

If Japan refuses to invade, China will easily roll the isolated US forces since there's nowhere to base them. Therefore without Imperial Japanese aggression, there can be no Taiwan invasion.

China needs to do something about Japan. It's unacceptable that they're allowed to keep threatening Asia in general and Taiwan in particular even after losing WW2. But looking at the size of China's military shopping list, we can see that it is clearly not just for self defense. So the leadership is preparing for action further down the road.
As @ACuriousPLAFan said, it is important to fully demilitarize and denazify Japan. Many Japanese fascists were allowed to walk free, become leaders and build temples to their war criminals.

It would be as if the allies allowed Himmler to rule Germany after WW2 if he renames the Nazi Party to Happy Democratic Sunshine Party, and instead of apologizing to the victims, he decided to build a Goering Cathedral.
 

grulle

Junior Member
Registered Member
can US fighter operate out of SK and Jap bases without refueling in a Taiwan scenario? they have no land to stand on. only their carrriers. A taiwan scenario is a highly unique battle because the US does not have bases anywhere near Taiwan.
 

aqh

Junior Member
Registered Member
Those bases will be lit up by PLARF missiles and H20 sorites in Japan. If its South Korea then it will even be worse due to how close it is. The saturation capacity of guided PHL 16s will make that suicidal for any poor F35 taking off from there.
 
Top