Likely industrial output.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
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I'd also argue that China's position is more favorable than the WW2 US position in some ways, not only on the basis of industrial output but also with better integration of information flow and iterative development in both manufacturing and combat applications. The biggest issues are actually in the near term (2025-2027) rather than afterwards thanks to Trump and company.
The best proxy to industial output is total energy consumption, by that metric, China's industrial capacity has already surpassed NATO+Jap.
Even now China would easily build 2-3 USN per year in a wartime economy.
FriedRiceNSpice
Captain
This kind of thinking is dangerous, and will lead to WW3. Even if, and that's a big if, the Chinese were able to project power past Hawaii, it would be only after many years of prolonged conflict and would result in the collective West entering the conflict. The end result would either be MAD or devastation to such unimaginable scales that there would be no real winners. Geographically, any Eurasian military force pushing towards the America's would have a much harder time than the Allies did in WW2. The Allies had Austalia and India as bases in the Pacific and Great Britain, North Africa and the Middle East in the Atlantic to serve as staging grounds and logistics centers. World War level conflict is not an realistic outcome of a Taiwan contingency, there is a separate thread for discussing PLA strike options in a West Pac conflict.
WW3 at this point is basically inevitable and only the timing will vary, simply because the global environmental situation on all fronts (in the background of existing political and economic conflicts) is already unstable to the point that even global nuclear war would be less destructive than the current trendlines are heading. The US elites unlike the Soviets would be far more willing to burn down the world anyway than to lose a Cold War to boot, so it really is more of a 'pick your poison' type of situation rather than an optimized mutual win situation for both humans and the environment, for if that had been the case we wouldn't even be in the current situation in the first place, let alone aggravating it.
One thing you need to keep in mind is that due to the increased technological complexity of modern weapons, it is not as easy to scale up production the way it is during WWII. Just compare the complexity of a modern fifth or even fourth generation fighter against a propeller plane from 80 years ago! Even if you can make a lot of assets within a short time, it will take a long time to train your personnel to operate them effectively.
This is why who gets the advantage in the opening strike will likely win the war.
This is why who gets the advantage in the opening strike will likely win the war.
Does anyone have any idea of what the maximum amount of forces the US can surge in the pacific in case of an invasion of Taiwan?
Like what % of USAF aircraft , what % of USN ships etcetera can they at max surge? What % of destroyers, CVNs , Virginias ? How many F35s can they cram on all those bases and those CVNs? We should have a good idea of the US's possible ORBAT before making these types of judgements so does anyone know?
Like what % of USAF aircraft , what % of USN ships etcetera can they at max surge? What % of destroyers, CVNs , Virginias ? How many F35s can they cram on all those bases and those CVNs? We should have a good idea of the US's possible ORBAT before making these types of judgements so does anyone know?
Doesn't this also mean autonomous long ranged assets like missiles and drones, which were previously regarded as "munitions" and not "assets", are actually much more useful since the training threshold is vastly reduced as compared to a directly piloted platform?
The video of "Two Tailed Comet" analyzes the high-level Military simulation conducted by Japan in 2021 and 2022.
Currently, there is only the first part and no subtitles.
Summary of the content:
1. Japan's plan is to use the Taiwan Strait crisis to expand military power. Once Japan's shipping is threatened, no one will oppose JSDF's fleet expanding its scope of operations.
2. In 2020-2021, the western world, including Japan, has a strange optimism about the situation in China. They believe that China's economy has been in trouble because of COVID-19, but in 2022 they give up this idea.
3. Japan had envisioned attempting to protect its economic interests in China, but in the 2022 simulation, Japan chose to abandon its economic interests for strategic security.
4. Japan is very concerned about the possibility of large-scale cyber attacks. The fragility of Japan's network protection capabilities cannot be improved in the short term. The heavy responsibility of network defense will be fully entrusted to the United States.
5. After China established a large-scale "exercise zone", Japan planned to use diplomatic propaganda to occupy the moral high ground (although I think this is meaningless), and then the most important step was to participate in the US military's "free navigation" in the South China Sea to deter China.
6. Japan plans to provide secret military support to Taiwan, such as secretly establishing military communication mechanisms and opening some airports to Taiwan.
7. Confusing potential opponents and using the uncertainty of the deployment of nuclear weapons by the United States in Japan to deter the enemy.
——The above content is based on the nomal model（”The Taiwan Strait Crisis model“ ）envisioned by Japan.
Japan also envisioned a 'Berlin Crisis model', but the content was absurd. It is assumed that tourists returning from Chinese Mainland to Taiwan have detected a new virus, so China chooses to block the island in the name of "physical isolation".
In this model, the Japanese strategy is to ensure that the connection with Taiwan Island is not interrupted.
They will ensure the control of Yonaguni and protect the submarine communications cable from being cut off. When necessary, it is necessary to ensure smooth sea passage to Taiwan.
Meanwhile, Japan will cooperate with the United States to open an air corridor in the southeastern part of Taiwan Island under the name of "humanitarianism". Support for Taiwan Island was achieved by replicating the Berlin Strategic Air Transport scenario.
Of course, the achievement of this goal must be based on the premise that there will be no armed conflict between the two sides.
The last scenario is landing operation, or "Normandy model".
In 2021, Japan assumed that the conflict would erupt in 2024. Japan has put forward an interesting point that the Chinese Mainland will consciously encourage the political radicals on the island of Taiwan, and those radical slogans of independence will help to provide a political reason for military action.
The Japanese have considerable expectations of the United States. It is envisaged that the United States will deploy tactical missiles and anti-ship missiles in Japan and the Philippines, and deter opponents through the uncertainty of deploying nuclear weapons.(But it is obvious that this idea is not very realistic at present)
The second half of the content starts around 60:00. I'm in a hurry to go to the bathroom, so I won't translate the rest for now.
We know from Desert Storm.
Prior to Desert Storm there was a 6 month buildup across the border in Saudi Arabia before the US was able to attack Iraq. During this time, Iraq mostly just watched.
In 1992 US deployed 6 CBGs:
Midway (CV), Saratoga (CV), Ranger (CV), America (CV), JFK (CV), Roosevelt (CVN).
In 1991 their navy was much larger with 16x CBGs total: 9x CV (1x MDWY, 4x FRSTL, 4x KT HWK), 7x CVN (1x ENT , 6x NMTZ ).
They also note that in Desert Storm, 5/6 CSGs in theater were conventional, consisting of a 5/9 readiness for CVs.