PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

A

aqh

Junior Member
Registered Member
Guys can someone give me a optimistic scenario for the US by 2030 how they would successfully intervene for Taiwan?
If the PLA has by 2030 (personal projections):
1000+ J20s
200+ J 35s
a larger better AWACS fleet than the Global US one
A peer if not better UAV fleet
80% of US destroyers/cruisers/warship capacity
4 carriers with 1 CVN
Type 095s and continued expansion of their current ASW fleet
H20s
Continued expansion of a pacific ISTAR system with more satellites, sensors, better and more radars giving the PLA with near certainty a superior information environment in West-pac.
Of course saturation capability with many many land based ASBMs and ASCMs.
Many missiles ready to crack every US base in west pac

This is a military large enough to go toe to with the global US military at that point. If we count just pacific forces that the US can surge provided they can (optimistically) know an invasion is coming within 3 months how on earth would the US successfully intervene?
 
A

aqh

Junior Member
Registered Member
Especially if the US is fighting of its bases not its homeland. The PLA can hit pain points within the US logistical and resupply system. If those are gone then the US reliant on resupply thousands of miles away.
 
plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
aqh said:
Guys can someone give me a optimistic scenario for the US by 2030 how they would successfully intervene for Taiwan?
If the PLA has by 2030 (personal projections):
1000+ J20s
200+ J 35s
a larger better AWACS fleet than the Global US one
A peer if not better UAV fleet
80% of US destroyers/cruisers/warship capacity
4 carriers with 1 CVN
Type 095s and continued expansion of their current ASW fleet
H20s
Continued expansion of a pacific ISTAR system with more satellites, sensors, better and more radars giving the PLA with near certainty a superior information environment in West-pac.
Of course saturation capability with many many land based ASBMs and ASCMs.
Many missiles ready to crack every US base in west pac

This is a military large enough to go toe to with the global US military at that point. If we count just pacific forces that the US can surge provided they can (optimistically) know an invasion is coming within 3 months how on earth would the US successfully intervene?
Click to expand...

With current trends, if the US directly intervenes in AR in 2030, not only will the loose their entire expeditionary forces and all forward deployed in Asia, China will have the power to seriously think about taking Hawaii and all US pacific island holdings and basically take the fight directly to the CONUS seaboard if it chose to do so. This is a core reason why the US is so hell bent on having its war now. Because to them, not going to war against China is simply not an option it seems.
 
A

aqh

Junior Member
Registered Member
So we all agree that if current projections hold by 2030 the idea that the US can successfully intervene is a fantasy and would require a miracle ?
 
A

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
Here could be one contrasting opinion from many:

Frankly speaking, in case China launches Operation AR on Taiwan - The decision on whether to launch a full-scale amphibious assault on Taiwan should also depend on whether Japan has decided on direct military intervention (and hence, going to war against China).

If Japan (and the US) brilliantly picked to stay out of the fight, then the focus should be on Taiwan. No second questions there.

However, if the opposite is true, then it would be better (and more imperative) for China to resort towards conducting a full blockade on Taiwan, rather than attempting a full-scale amphibious assault directed against the island.

Of course, the outlying ROC-held islands of Kinmen, Matsu and (if situation is permissible) Penghu should be captured for further operations on the island of Taiwan itself.

The point is - Rather than Taiwan, the focal point for Beijing should instead be the capture of the Ryukyu Islands.
(However, it should be noted that whether the Ryukyus are to be granted full independence - Or be annexed into China proper - Should not be the focal topic of discussion at this stage.)
 
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TK3600

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
aqh said:
Guys can someone give me a optimistic scenario for the US by 2030 how they would successfully intervene for Taiwan?
If the PLA has by 2030 (personal projections):
1000+ J20s
200+ J 35s
a larger better AWACS fleet than the Global US one
A peer if not better UAV fleet
80% of US destroyers/cruisers/warship capacity
4 carriers with 1 CVN
Type 095s and continued expansion of their current ASW fleet
H20s
Continued expansion of a pacific ISTAR system with more satellites, sensors, better and more radars giving the PLA with near certainty a superior information environment in West-pac.
Of course saturation capability with many many land based ASBMs and ASCMs.
Many missiles ready to crack every US base in west pac

This is a military large enough to go toe to with the global US military at that point. If we count just pacific forces that the US can surge provided they can (optimistically) know an invasion is coming within 3 months how on earth would the US successfully intervene?
Click to expand...
Define successful intervention. Taiwan island is fucked even if China attack today. The only difference is at what cost can US impose on China for the adventure.

Based on your scenario US is best to play to its advantage and avoid being greedy. Harass Chinese economy on the blue sea while China cannot venture too far. Harass Chinese regional partners to isolate China. Deploy ground troops to hold Japan. The big naval action is around AESAN region to block China from its biggest trade partner by any means possible. Mine the SCS and regions around China to deny Chinese use.
 
S

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
coolgod said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1678718930708480000

ROC veterans getting veteran discount on tickets in Xiamen, seems to be an adhoc policy (maybe for propaganda purposes). Does the CPC have a policy or any statement about what happens to ROC enlisted, vets or martyrs who died fighting against the Japanese? I'm betting a lot of ROC officers have ancestors who were also ROC officers. They might be incentivized to reunite peacefully if their ancestors get recognized for their past deeds.
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The official recognition of KMT/ROC veterans had already started in 2013.
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Sadly, by the time this happened, most were already very elderly and missed out on many years of pensions (and also suffered through the Cultural Revolution and other campaigns).

I have had some similar lines of thinking as yourself in terms of the current ROC officer corps, though I don't think free amusement park tickets matter to them . The DPP is doing a fine job of disgracing their ancestors by licking Japanese boots. It's no surprise that senior ROC officers are so easily turned into assets. Of course greed will always be a prime factor, but the DPP treatment makes it so much easier to justify.

As for veterans discounts, I think they are quite ad hoc in general (not even talking about China). I don't necessarily think it was propaganda. The viral story is that the guy at the ticket booth called his manager after the ROCA vet asked him about it and it was approved right away. Unless his manager was Xi Jinping, I don't imagine that geopolitical propaganda was really part of his thought process.
 
B

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
TK3600 said:
Define successful intervention. Taiwan island is fucked even if China attack today. The only difference is at what cost can US impose on China for the adventure.

Based on your scenario US is best to play to its advantage and avoid being greedy. Harass Chinese economy on the blue sea while China cannot venture too far. Harass Chinese regional partners to isolate China. Deploy ground troops to hold Japan. The big naval action is around AESAN region to block China from its biggest trade partner by any means possible. Mine the SCS and regions around China to deny Chinese use.
Click to expand...
Logically it won't be easy in any scenario for US to invade Taiwan.

It's an assault right in the home territory on the world's largest economy and largest developed economy by far.

Russia is struggling a lot with Ukraine which is right next to them and many times smaller in economy, population and industry.

There is no such thing as China not venturing out far. If US doesn't manage to take out all the defenders quickly and force China to the negotiation table, China will island hop until there's no more room for US to retreat to. Staying out in the deep pacific means no pressure on the PLA, so China just wears down local US outposts using it's much larger missile capacity and puts boots on the ground there, before rinse and repeating.

US best bet (aside from not fighting) might be something like the initial Russian march on Kiev. Send every single major fleet towards China's East and South. They might take huge losses, but chances are they can capture several Chinese areas in the confusion, similar to how Russia rapidly seized the Crimea land bridge during the Kiev stunt.

Then negotiate for peace.

Except for China there's not much reason for them to accept any settlement that concedes land to the US, because they know they can spend a while building up/regrouping, punch through weakened US lines and liberate the occupied areas.

Depending on who leads China, nukes would be a risk as well. Taiwan has a population of millions. It's not exactly an uninhabited SCS island where China would just lose pride and some resources if they lost it. Would US resort to nukes if they were losing Hawaii? Maybe not because it's not part of the core mainland, but maybe yes because it's still inhabited and has important military functions.
 
TK3600

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
Biscuits said:
Logically it won't be easy in any scenario for US to invade Taiwan.

It's an assault right in the home territory on the world's largest economy and largest developed economy by far.

Russia is struggling a lot with Ukraine which is right next to them and many times smaller in economy, population and industry.

There is no such thing as China not venturing out far. If US doesn't manage to take out all the defenders quickly and force China to the negotiation table, China will island hop until there's no more room for US to retreat to. Staying out in the deep pacific means no pressure on the PLA, so China just wears down local US outposts using it's much larger missile capacity and puts boots on the ground there, before rinse and repeating.

US best bet (aside from not fighting) might be something like the initial Russian march on Kiev. Send every single major fleet towards China's East and South. They might take huge losses, but chances are they can capture several Chinese areas in the confusion, similar to how Russia rapidly seized the Crimea land bridge during the Kiev stunt.

Then negotiate for peace.

Except for China there's not much reason for them to accept any settlement that concedes land to the US, because they know they can spend a while building up/regrouping, punch through weakened US lines and liberate the occupied areas.

Depending on who leads China, nukes would be a risk as well. Taiwan has a population of millions. It's not exactly an uninhabited SCS island where China would just lose pride and some resources if they lost it. Would US resort to nukes if they were losing Hawaii? Maybe not because it's not part of the core mainland, but maybe yes because it's still inhabited and has important military functions.
Click to expand...
The bet is that China can venture far, but they will lose engagement past certain distance, so they will not. Bases like Okinawa are definitely gone. Guam is 50/50, and anything past that I doubt China can island hop as it is too far away from their SRBM coverage. Supplies risk cut off by US subs.

What will end up happening is China will take Taiwan and all the base nearby up to Guam, possibly including Guam. Then China will fight to defend the status quo while US harass Chinese global interests. The war ends when one side gets tired of it.

Case 1: China win because US run out of money maintaining naval actions and sustain attrition. Depending on how hard China wins China may or may not return those occupied base to US.

Case 2: China holds Taiwan, but negotiate a compromise somehow because of the economic cost of US actions. All base returned to US, and offers minor concession like a special administrative region and keep American interest there in exchange for holding Taiwan defacto.
 
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