The times of today remind me as an amateur historian of the 1930's,"Dark Valley" where the geopolitical landscape has so much tectonic pressure that war has to break out somewhere along historical/geopolitical faultlines like the Ukraine war is akin to the Spanish Civil War with both sides sending equipment and troops for "testing" and use and in East Asia a great power -seeks to regain/redress historic grievances and gain pride-of-place but the existing order will not agree nor negotiate to release pressures and war I fear is inevitable.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
Yes, and I think the Ukraine War really illustrates why "half-measures" cannot be taken. I am not saying that Ukraine is the same political issue, but strategically, the two cases are similar.
Russia drove in thinking that they could de-capitate the regime and win this without shedding Ukrainian or Russian blood. They were utterly wrong and paid for it dearly, with a lot of their best equipment and troops destroyed. If nothing else, this even probably reiterated the importance of "no half-measures" to PLA command. This is my speculation of course, but I can't imagine China's top brass not going away with these take-aways.
America has not really learned any lessons, it seems many think that China would only use the ETC or even less forces to defend Taiwan, even against a joint US and JAPAN invasion, apparently not knowing the historical reasons China will engage in total war in the event of Japan becoming involved.
Some US officials also think they can with minimum forces take the island from China.
The difference is that Ukraine is limited in its offensive and industrial ability, whereas China is a complete equal force. The war won't be limited to Chinese territory, but spread to any country that is a participant. If America miscalculates, they won't just lose their best troops and equipment.
actually if anything Ukraine war taught China not to make half-measures, while the west (especially the US) pat themselves on the back thinking half-measures did wonders for them. this of course may change if the upcoming offensive fails and thus cascades into a catastrophic failure of the Ukrainian forces akin to the last 100 days of WWI, which i believe is a plausible way of how that war may end.
confirmed: Japanese women are the key to winning Japan in the future.
Asahi poll: 56% want only SDF rear support to U.S. in event of Taiwan crisis
By TAIZO TERAMOTO/ Staff Writer
May 1, 2023 at 17:14 JST
A Maritime Self-Defense Force supply vessel, left, refuels a U.S. Navy vessel during a training exercise in waters near Okinawa Prefecture in 2021. (From the Defense Ministry website)
Eighty percent of voters said they are worried that Japan would be caught up in the armed conflict if the United States and China clashed over Taiwan, according to an Asahi Shimbun survey.
A majority of respondents said the Self-Defense Forces should limit its role to rearguard support to the U.S. military in the event of an attempted Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Survey questions were sent by mail to 3,000 randomly selected voters nationwide on Feb. 28. Valid responses were received from 1,967, or 66 percent.
Respondents were asked to choose from four varying degrees of concern that Japan would be dragged into a U.S.-China military confrontation over Taiwan.
Twenty-eight percent said they are concerned “greatly” and 52 percent said “to some degree.”
In contrast, 16 percent of respondents said they are “not concerned much” and only 2 percent said they are “not concerned at all.”
Thirty-five percent of respondents in the Kyushu region said they are concerned greatly, the largest percentage by region.
The southwestern region includes Okinawa Prefecture, which is close to Taiwan and home to a large majority of U.S. military installations in Japan.
Voters were asked to select from three choices about the SDF’s response to a possible U.S.-China military confrontation.
Fifty-six percent said the SDF’s role should be limited to rearguard support to the U.S. military.
Twenty-seven percent said the SDF should not work with the U.S. military, and 11 percent said the SDF should use force with the U.S. military.
By gender, 33 percent of female respondents said the SDF should not work with the U.S. military, exceeding the 21 percent of male respondents.
Voters were also asked which of the two approaches they think Japan should prioritize for its national security: deepening the relationship with China through diplomacy and the economy or strengthening defense capabilities.
Seventy percent selected “deepening the relationship with China,” far more than the 26 percent who chose “strengthening defense capabilities.”
By gender, 75 percent of female respondents chose “deepening the relationship with China,” exceeding the 64 percent of male respondents.
so many questions:
1. can hydrophones or seismometers pick up tunnel digging? from how deep?
2. how to get back up on the other side?
3. what about seismic activity in the strait?
as a comparison, Japanese engineers took decades to fully excavate a 50 km tunnel (3x shorter than the strait) and they couldn't use a tunnel boring machine due to the complex subsea geology. They resorted to explosives and laborers with pickaxes.
kwaigonegin
Colonel
Nobody really knows what the military brass or thr political leaders truly think. Winning or losing a war is almost impossible to predict because it has countless variables. Most of which is out of one's control. A lot of it also has to do with 'luck.'
China's military is also largely untested in modern warfare.
And will the civilian population able to stomach the potential heavy loses?
Majority of the men is the only child in their family.
Even more of the Taiwanese are the only child. It also won't be China being bombed with incendiaries and being starved of energy, food, fresh water and medicine. Air/naval attacks don't involve many on the attacker side being killed.
Whose stronger, a boxer that thinks they're strong for beating up untrained kids at the gym while not caring about underlying heart disease/diabetes or a boxer that trains and conditions as if he was going to the Olympics but hasn't fought in a while?
kwaigonegin
Colonel
Are you so sure Taiwan is the ONLY country that China has to fight in this case? If so then yes your assessment would be agreeable.