PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

kwaigonegin said:

Japan did not invade Malaysia and Singapore via amphibious assault. They did a blitzkrieg style attack coming down from Thailand.
Philippines was a cakewalk because it happened right after Pearl Harbor and the imperial Japanese air force had quickly achieved air superiority with the destruction of Clark airbase.

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ACuriousPLAFan said:

Yes, Imperial Japan did invade Malaysia and Singapore from the sea. How else Borneo was taken by Imperial Japan in 1941-1942?

Speaking of Peninsular Malaysia - Other than coming down from the north through Thailand, the IJA and IJN troops also conducted amphibious assaults on Pattani, Songkhla (both in southern Thailand) and Kota Bahru (in northern Peninsular Malaysia) just in case Thailand didn't lay down their arms and fight against IJA troops that were invading them through Indochina.

Speaking of Singapore - The British troops blew up the only land crossing between Malaysia and Singapore, i.e. the Causeway after completing their retreat from Johor Bahru into Singapore. The IJA troops had to conduct two simultaneous amphibious assaults across the Johore Strait to invade Singapore from the west and north of the island.

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HighGround said:

In my opinion, Xi and his top commanders are actually convinced that time is on their side. They will therefore avoid armed reunification if at all possible. Instead, the trigger for conflict are the outcomes of the 2024, 2028 Taiwan and US elections. I.E. A DPP (or other pro-independence movement) victories encourage Taiwan's government to keep pushing China's red lines .

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BoraTas said:

It is hard to argue against these two claims. Military equipment acquisition rates are definitely in favor of China. And I would be extremely surprised if election results were not a part of the calculation of Beijing. I think they are holding back to not to spoil KMT's chances in 2024. If DPP wins again in 2024, especially with their current candidate, we will likely see a much a harder standing from Beijing.
I am also fairly convinced first shot will be from Beijing. Because I think Taiwan won't declare independence ever. That would make it quite hard for the US to rally allies. They will just continue salami slicing until Taiwan is a normal sovereign country in all but name. At some point Beijing will declare the red line was passed and pull the trigger.

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kwaigonegin said:

Yes and no. I was responding to the original etc. in which he referenced the D Day landings with the 'amphibious' assault on Malaysia and Singapore etc.
There were certainly targeted landings spots by IJA via the sea however the main invasion came through land from Thailand.
As for SG, there were no D-Day type amphibious assault landings. Yes they came via sea since SG is an island however it was through barges and make shift bridges. SG and Malaysia are very close together. Some sections are no more than half mile or at most a mile wide. At the time the british/allied forces were pretty much defeated via bombings and massive artillery fire.
The IJN basically just landed, not much 'assault' was needed.

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Brainsuker said:

Maybe there are some historical facts in the topic that eluded from my original post. But it doesn't change the fact that capturing the islands in Pacific war was not as hard as the western opinion of the same opinion about Taiwan. If capturing the islands were so difficult, how could The US couldn't defended Philippine in early WW2? We still remember McArthur quote about his defeat against Japan in early war. But at the same war, Japan also could not defended the same islands to the USN and US Marines, after that.

So basically Normandy and Taiwan are two different cases of problem. Yes, maybe it will be difficult of Mainland China to conduct an amphibious landing on the northern shore of Taiwan, because it is like a fortress. So if we talk about the case, it will similar to Normandy.

But we must also remember that Taiwan suffer the same situation like those islands in Pacific wars in World War 2. Namely the problem of Logistic.

So, if Mainland China can win the sea and air superiority over Taiwan, then the island is finished. Just like it's historical fate. From the Manchurian era, where the Manchurian general, Shi Lang captured the Island from Ming survivors, Japanese invasion era where the island then renamed to Formosa, to the late World War 2 era, where Formosa was taken by USN and US Marines.

The problem is, how can Mainland China win the sea and air superiority in the war.

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Brainsuker said:

Maybe there are some historical facts in the topic that eluded from my original post. But it doesn't change the fact that capturing the islands in Pacific war was not as hard as the western opinion of the same opinion about Taiwan. If capturing the islands were so difficult, how could The US couldn't defended Philippine in early WW2? We still remember McArthur quote about his defeat against Japan in early war. But at the same war, Japan also could not defended the same islands to the USN and US Marines, after that.

So basically Normandy and Taiwan are two different cases of problem. Yes, maybe it will be difficult of Mainland China to conduct an amphibious landing on the northern shore of Taiwan, because it is like a fortress. So if we talk about the case, it will similar to Normandy.

But we must also remember that Taiwan suffer the same situation like those islands in Pacific wars in World War 2. Namely the problem of Logistic.

So, if Mainland China can win the sea and air superiority over Taiwan, then the island is finished. Just like it's historical fate. From the Manchurian era, where the Manchurian general, Shi Lang captured the Island from Ming survivors, Japanese invasion era where the island then renamed to Formosa, to the late World War 2 era, where Formosa was taken by USN and US Marines.

The problem is, how can Mainland China win the sea and air superiority in the war.

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kwaigonegin said:

Yes, goes w/o saying I suppose .. if plan/plaaf is able to achieve total air superiority over Taiwan and control both surface and subsurface then it's a foregone conclusion....
Or they can go with the 80/20 rule.

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