I fully agree and my apologies. I should have warned everyone about his problematic version of history and to just focus on his conclusion.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
Just to make it clear, I'm an American. I find the article to be descriptive rather than predictive. Aside from my quibbles with how certain events are described (there is an obvious pro-American bias), I think it's accurate. The only thing that I think is missing, is insight into how the American public might react to a U.S. defeat or exit from WESTPAC, and subsequently, how the aforementioned domestic reaction would influence future American foreign policy.
IMO, Scenario 6 is the most likely, but again, the framing (and analysis) here is wrong.
In my opinion, Xi and his top commanders are actually convinced that time is on their side. They will therefore avoid armed reunification if at all possible. Instead, the trigger for conflict are the outcomes of the 2024, 2028 Taiwan and US elections. I.E. A DPP (or other pro-independence movement) victories encourage Taiwan's government to keep pushing China's red lines. Similarly, lack of any real armed response from China moves the Overton window of US politics into "deterring" China by being more and more confrontational/disregarding China's warnings about arming Taiwan. On the other end of the globe, an Ukrainian victory or defeat could move the needle either way.
As a result, some idiotic initiative like a nationwide, non-binding referendum on whether Taiwan should declare independence/amend their constitution, finally triggers a reaction from Beijing.
I think it's been well covered in this Forum and elsewhere why this is probably unlikely to happen on Zero hour.
Not just cutting off logistics but all all internet access and electricity to disrupt and minimize coordination between civilians who plan on resisting.
All the underwater internet cables need to be cut/destroyed and any internal/external paths of communication disrupted.
Taiwan- China crises hasn't even achieved close to maximum level of below war escalation. There is a long way and plenty of ways to raise the temperature. For instance, there hasn't been any financial panic in Taiwan similar to pre ukraine. TAIEX hasn't crashed, NTD plunge, none of that has happened yet. Panic is infectious
No, the scenarios are not well done because they falsely imply some form of technological/military parity, whereas in reality the PLA is vastly superior to the RoCArF in every domain. In 2023, the PLA can very credibly wipe out Taiwan's Air Force and navy on day one while taking minimal losses. The notion that Taiwan can meaningfully retaliate on Chinese ports or air fields is pure fantasy.
The Anglos aren't looking to negotiate in good faith at all, they bring only threats to the table and make up negotiation leverage from thin air.
It's a complete waste of time to even talk to them, the best case scenario for them is to annoy and intimidate you into agreeing into something for no return.
kwaigonegin
Colonel
Japan did not invade Malaysia and Singapore via amphibious assault. They did a blitzkrieg style attack coming down from Thailand.
Philippines was a cakewalk because it happened right after Pearl Harbor and the imperial Japanese air force had quickly achieved air superiority with the destruction of Clark airbase.
Sir correct in certain way BUT a huge blame should be put on Douglas MacArthur stupid strategy and timidity. The Japanese invasion forces landed at Lingayen gulf from there going to Manila there are a lots of choke point and natural obstacles to prevent the Japanese rapid advances. And Bataan is not ideal for the defense as the Japanese control the sea, for an amateur like me the Sierra Madre mountain range is better defensive wise.
What‘s interesting，is that China has been using the TB and BZK series drone to patrolling around. TB and BZK drone are unfamiliar to public，as oppose to CH or WingLong or WZ. I wonder why that is the case？ Why don't they use the likes of CH/WingLong/WZ ？